Gareth Hughes

Who'll lift the gloom

2012-01-26T17:00:00.000Z

There was no snow to blame this time so it must be the eurozone's fault for the 0.2% contraction in the UK economy.

“It’s not me guv.” was David Cameron’s response to our shrinking economy. With our economy going backwards, yesterday, both our Prime Minister and Chancellor chose to blame the euro crisis for the rotten state of our economy.

But, the fact of the matter is, that the economy has been flatlining since 2010 a point that Ed Miliband was quick to jump on in yesterday’s exchanges in the House of Commons.

Even Sir Mervyn King is predicting that the road out of recession is going to be “arduous, long and uneven.”

The austerity road that the government was determined to travel on is in large measure the cause of the country’s economic malaise.

Despite the International Monetary Fund urging the government to ease up on the cuts agenda, the government has persisted with it, even when all the evidence points to it making matters worse.

In such circumstances you’d think that Labour would be shooting at an open goal. Indeed Ed Ball’s predictions have come true. He’s been warning for a while that the government’s policy would result in bringing about that double dip recession.

Yesterday’s figures surely point to that state of affairs being just round the corner and there's plenty of anecdotal evidence that we’re already there.

But the opinion polls show that Labour are not making an impact. Voters still believe the rhetoric of the Chancellor that we’d be just like Greece if we hadn’t gone down the road of severe cuts.

It is certainly true that the credit agencies have been sympathetic to the Osborne view of the world. The policy the Chancellor sold was that cutting the public sector was the way forward.

But, and it’s a very important but, these agencies swallowed the Chancellor’s line that parallel to the severe cuts in the public sector, the private sector would see real growth.

This has not happened. An austerity policy without robust growth results in higher deficits. So yesterday Britain’s national debt hit a massive £1trillion. This alongside unemployment of over two and a half million.

My prediction is that credit agencies will reflect this. You don’t need to be Mystic Meg to see Britain following France and loosing its triple A rating.

Whether the Opposition are able to capitalise on these developments is highly unlikely.

Miliband’s leadership has been inept in many areas not least in their approach to the economy.

Last week was a prime example of them shooting themselves in the foot. They confused the voter by talking about what they would or wouldn’t do after the election.

Their new line is that they will stick with the present governments cuts. For months they have been attacking the very same government for cutting too fast and urging them to grow the economy. It seems that they're been advised by Confused.com

A party that doesn’t offer hope, and persists with the same solutions as the existing government, will not win support. The voters will stick with the devil they know.

Miliband will have to shape up and soon or it won’t be just Plaid Cymru that will be holding a leadership election this year.

Referendum talk

2012-01-25T13:19:00.003Z

Elin Jones one of the Plaid leadership candidates says that there will have to be a referendum on independence in Wales should they as a party win power in two successive elections.

That is a mighty high hurdle to set. It is tantamount to saying not for a long while yet. After all Plaid Cymru's track record in winning elections ain't that great.

But is that what it will take for Wales to have such a vote. Unlikely. It could happen a great deal sooner than that. Why? Well, if Carwyn Jones gets his way and a convention is set up to look at all aspects of the Union and there are proposals to set up a Federal system. Surely, such changes would have to be voted on in a referendum of the Welsh people.

As even the smallest steps taken in the journey of devolution in Wales has been subject to a referendum. It's inconceivable that such a major change to the governance of the Kingdom would happen without the people having their say.

If you're asking people to vote for a new union then they must have the opportunity to say "we want no part of it". In other words the independence question must be an option on the ballot paper.

Isn't politics wonderful, the party whose raison d'etre is independence making it clear that there won't be a vote taken on the issue for sometime yet. Whilst the unionist Labour Party by it's action likely to bring forward such a vote.

It's a funny old world.

The following is a short extract of Carwyn Jones's press conference where he makes the call for a convention.

You will hear in answer to a question of mine the mention of the dreaded "Federal" word.
Carwyn Jones presser (mp3)

New arrangements?

2012-01-23T15:00:00.000Z

Alex Salmond will soon be pushing the line as to how Scottish independence will benefit the English when he delivers the Hugo Young lecture this week.

His line will give many an English MP food for thought, ‘cos he’ll sort out the West Lothian question for them straight away. Independence, so no more Scottish MPs, full stop.

It’s also this week that Mr Cameron's commission on relations between between the English and MPs from the devolved countries gets underway.

Coincidently, Cardiff University announce a comprehensive study of the English and their attitudes to devolution.

Not suprising they don’t like it. Why? Because they feel they’re missing out, getting a raw deal.

The facts don’t back up this up, by any objective measure England is still the most prosperous of the nations. But, and its a mighty big but, in politics perception is more important than objective reality.

If they think they’re getting a raw deal, a raw deal they're getting. It’s enough of a reality to get English politicians champing at the bit for the government to do something.

Now a commission that reports sometime in the future ain’t going to satisfy back bench Tories. No, they’ll want action this side of the next election.

What action? That’s the question.

Ah, enter stage left Salmond. He offers the solution. No, not necessarily the independence that he and his party crave. But that second question that Mr Cameron doesn’t want on the ballot paper, “devo max.”

The study by Cardiff and Edinburgh Universities show that eight out of ten of those English voters questioned, support full fiscal autonomy. In other words, “devo max.”

At the same time those questioned say that MPs from these devolved countries should not by voting on English laws. So what’s the solution?

There are only two possibilities, either setting up an English Parliament, which Cameron has already ruled out or some other more sustainable arrangement. A Federal system.

Now Carwyn Jones flagged up that new arrangements would have to be made if Scotland left the UK. That may not happen, but the pressure from England may make “devo max” the answer for all the devolved adminstrations. And yes, a new compact between the nations of these islands would then have to be negotiated.

“Devo max” is the last thing that Labour would want for Wales. No longer would the English be bailing Wales out. The country would have to be self sufficient.

Now there’s a challenge for Carwyn Jones, making Wales stand on its own two feet.

No trip to seaside for Welsh Conservatives

2012-01-19T15:42:00.004Z

The Welsh Conservatives are to scrap their annual conference with only two weeks to go. They’re replacing it with a rally. The big question is, why?

It was only under three weeks ago that they were sending out invitations. It would seem quite bizarre to cancel it at such short notice. Their official reasons are here in quotes,

“2012 is an important year for Welsh Conservatives and we need to continue the work we have begun in building our activist base.” So there you have it.

It’s an important year although there is no explanation as to why it’s so important. Surely if they are building their activist base, a conference would be a good place for all these “activists” to meet and debate and discuss and meet their elected representatives.

But “particularly important are the upcoming council elections across Wales, and in order to give these the fullest support, we are changing our plans for Welsh Conservative Party conference this year. The new format will be a one-day Rally launching our Local Government Campaign for party activists.”

The local government elections are held every four year. The party has had all the time in the world to plan for the event. If the party runs the country with the same degree of forward planning we need to all start worrying.

No, none of the reasons hold water.

There must either be a catastrophic fall in the number of those ordinary delegates wishing to spend two-days by the sea side in Llandudno that they’ve had to cancel at the last minute. Or the recession is even deeper than previously thought and it’s even hit the Conservative party hard. So hard indeed that they worry they can’t pay the bills. It sounds like the real world, doesn't it.

Of course, there could be a political reason. Cabinet ministers just don’t regard Wales as a priority and have just refused to commit to coming to the Welsh conference. Their trips out of London this year will be to Scotland to try to prop up the union.

Or they will stay at home to help Boris remain as Mayor of London. In either event Wales is not in Central Office's game plan.

The Conservative party Scottish conference is still to go ahead, as planned, even though there are council elections there.

But there in lies the rub, Wales isn't threatening to take its ball away and quit the Union. Those rebellious Scots get all the attention because of their tantrums. Result attention, for the Scots and Wales are put firmly in their place. No conference. Spending money on a Welsh conference, where's the gain?

So much for the independence of the Welsh Conservative party.

Wales was waiting with bated breath to Andrew R T Davies’s first speech as leader of the opposition and leader of the party in Wales. Oh, sorry, got that wrong he’s not leader of the party in Wales that’s David Cameron. And as leader the PM's, told his Welsh membership to stand at ease until he’s ready to make an appearance.

Oh Mr Davies when will you get your first standing ovation from the members, not this year clearly?

Plaid Cymru look at themselves

2012-01-17T17:27:00.002Z

Dr Eurfyl ap Gwilym today published his conclusions on his look at Plaid Cymru following their disastrous performance in the last Assembly elections.

Short it is not.

It contains 95 recommendations in eighty pages. It even manages to quote Niccolo Machiavelli

“One must recognise that there is nothing more difficult or more perilous to undertake, than to introduce a new system of government, for he who seeks to create a new order makes enemies of all those who profited from the old.”

Perhaps a more appropriate quote from old Machi would have been,

“Everyone sees what you seem to be, few know what you really are, and those few, do not dare take a stand against the general opinion.”

So are these perceptions addressed, well yes, what wouldn’t be addressed in such a long report, but it’s not as if these have not been looked at before.

Not some years back they had a relaunch in Carmarthen. There they dropped the Triban in favour of the Welsh poppy, change the name to Plaid -the party of Wales to reach out to non-Welsh speakers.

But despite this, the view of voters about the party barely changed. It may have something to do with the party not being that enthusiastic about these changes. Certainly by the last election the party manifesto simply talked about “Plaid.”

Dr Eurfyl ap Gwilym frankly admitted the party has flat lined politically for some years.

So to address the concern he suggested that the party should consider adopting the name “Welsh National Party” as its English name.

This will really be a change of culture. After all in the past Plaid Cymru apparatchiks would come down hard on any sub-editor that allowed `Plaid to be described as “Welsh Nationalists.” Desperate times desperate measures, I guess.

On the vexed question of independence they are going to be more upfront. They are going to develop a constitutional route map to make the idea of independence more attractive. This they hope will win support for the next constitutional steps.

My guess is that as Harold Macmillan once said “events , dear, boy, events” will dictate the route map. The map is likely to be drawn more over Hadrian's wall than it ever will this side of Offa’s dyke.

For those who do not want to read the eighty odd pages, here are the key recommendations.

· The establishment of a National Academy to revolutionise campaigning and organisation, as well as nurturing the community champions and national leaders of the future.

· A radical modernisation of the party’s campaigning methods to create a permanently campaigning party equipped with the tools that are necessary for a modern 21^st century party.

· The establishment of a more effective mechanism for policy formulation. Ensuring that the skills of members, supporters and external experts are utilised in order to ensure better policy development.

· An acceptance that the Party needs greater clarity over its aims in order to be able to present a coherent and united message to the people of Wales.

· Fundamental changes to the Party’s structures in order to ensure clearer leadership and greater accountability from all Plaid representatives.

So there you have it. Plaid Cymru will now debate these recommendations, implement them and become the sleek winning electoral machine the aspire to be. That is of course if the party accepts the reforms.

But, perhaps, a bit of a give away was Dr Eurfyl’s comments in the launch, this is not the first time he’s written such a report for the party, he’s done it before and? Well, draw your own conclusions.

Oh, and just in case you wondered, they remain a left of centre party.

What about Wales

2012-01-16T16:22:00.001Z

What happens in Scotland will have real consequences for Wales. This blog has flagged this up frequently since Alex Salmond won his majority last May.

David Cameron’s attempt to wrong foot Salmond by pushing for an early referendum and Salmond’s response has set off the referendum campaign. Salmond now declares it will be Autumn 2014.

So there will be two years of arguments about independence. It is already dominating the headlines and the airwaves of the UK media.

If this last week is an indication, Scotland's referendum will dominate the news agenda for the next two years. Will any Welsh issue make it on the agenda in this time? Unlikely.

But Carwyn Jones was right to point out that if Scotland left the union the relationship of those that remained would have to change fundamentally.

The rump of the UK Parliament after the Scottish MPs were taken out of the equation would consist of 550 MPs. 510 of these would come from England, 30 from Wales and 10 from Northern Ireland.

Then Westminster would cease to be a Parliament of three remaining countries but simply a Parliament for England. And Carwyn Jones's response to such a situation, a demand for more MPs and peers from Wales and Northern Ireland. More politicians?

Nice try Carwyn, but why would the Tory government want to give in to your demands. To negotiate you have to have something to give and you’ve ruled out independence, so the negotiating cupboard is bare.

Prime Ministers always think of their place in history so if Cameron was to see Scotland break away on his watch that would be a serious blow to his esteem. But once that had happened would he really be worried about Wales. Doubtful.

As Carwyn Jones has already publicly declared “it would not be a good thing for Wales to become independent. Financially it is not in our interest.”

If this is true, and there are some that would dispute the case, surely it’s an admission that Wales is a basket case that is wholly dependent on England.

If that’s the case why, oh why, would Cameron grant Carwyn Jones more MPs and Lords. What would they do? Whinge for more resources? The Prime Minister may be many things but a masochist he is not.

No, Carwyn Jones had better hope that Salmond looses his touch and that those Scots that want independence remain a minority.

Opinion polls show that if the referndum was held today only 33% would be in favour with 53% against with another 14% not yet made up their minds.

But if a week is a long time in politics, two years is, well, long enough for the polls to change dramatically.

So rather than whinge to Cameron for more seats Carwyn Jones would be better employed leaning on Darling and Brown to start campaigning hard, in their homeland for the Union.

If they fail, the English might start questioning whether they would want Wales in their smaller Kingdom.

Surely, now is the time for the Welsh Government to address the question of what it should do, if it had to go it alone.

Another target missed

2012-01-13T15:50:00.000Z

The need for decent shelter is a requirement for all. That’s why, when the private sector wasn’t providing, local councils started building houses to rent. As too did philanthropic organisations like housing associations. All built decent housing for ordinary working people.

At one time, successive housing ministers were judged on the number of council houses they succeeded in getting built during their term in the job.

Indeed many pundits thought that Harold Macmillan beat Rab Butler to become prime minister after the resignation of Anthony Eden, because of his success as a Housing Minister.

Churchill gave him the job in 1951 and set him a target of building 300,000 homes a year. 'It is a gamble—it will make or mar your political career,' Churchill said, 'but every humble home will bless your name if you succeed.' Macmillan achieved the target a year ahead of schedule in 1953. The rest is, as they say, history.

Recent governments have given up on ambitious house building targets. Although to her credit, Jocelyn Davies the ex-Plaid Housing Minister, set a target of building 6500 homes which she succeeded in more than fulfilling. A rare achievement indeed for the Welsh Government.

But the council houses built by ministers such as Nye Bevan and Harold Macmillan are now so very dated. Modern they are not.

That’s why in 2002 the Welsh Government decided that all social housing needed updating to a basic standard. They spelt out what needed to be achieved in the Welsh Housing Quality Standard (WHQS). The target was to be met by the end of this year.

But today the Auditor General for Wales, Huw Vaughan Thomas has produced a highly critical report. In it he makes it absolutely clear that the 2012 target will not be met for some considerable time.

In his report Thomas points to weaknesses of leadership. He accuses the Welsh Government of not acting swiftly enough to support and monitor progress. The report goes on to point the finger at government at not putting "an effective framework in place to demonstrate value for money from the significant investment in work to achieve the WHQS."

Even by March 2017 only 79 per cent of social houses will have reached the target, with the greatest shortfall being in standards of bathrooms and kitchens.

The biggest problem in making things happen is, not surprisingly, a lack of cash by local councils.

To generate cash to get the job done, councils have to stop being landlords and transfer their housing stock to newly set up housing associations.

But the rub is, that this can only happen after and if council tenants agree. A ballot of tenants has to take place and a positive vote is required agreeing to such a transfer.

The Auditor General pinpoints the main reason for missing the target is tenants voting against transfer or where tenants have yet to be balloted.

It’s simple. No transfer then no private cash. No cash so no work done. Result, sub standard houses.

Tenants in many areas have not had this spelt out to them. Unless they vote for transfer they ain’t going to get modern decent well equipped homes.

Why hasn’t government made it clear to the tenants? Well, they’ve been mealy mouthed because they don’t want to upset the council house lobby. There is a sentiment towards the council house, that just doesn't reflect the modern world.

Clearly, if government set targets, they should either will the means to attain these targets. If they don't will the cash then owe it everyone to be up front with the tenants.

The simple truth is, nothing is going to happen to council properties and slow decay will continue unless tenants vote to transfer their homes.

Musical chairs

2012-01-11T12:50:00.000Z

based on OS mapping and copyright

There is only one thing on you're MPs mind today, his job. Why because the number of Welsh seats in Parliament is being reduced from forty to thirty. And what's worse many of them will have to fight colleagues for the right to represent the party in the new seat.

The map above shows the biggest change in election boundaries since the end of the second world war. New constituency names will emerge such as the Dee Estuary, North Wales Coast,and Glyndwr and North Powys to name but a few. And even those that retain their original names are very different entities to the existing ones. No seat remains the same.

If you object you have 12 weeks to make your views known to the Boundary Commission.

And why the change? Well, Mr Cameron in response to the universal disapproval over MPs expenditure decided that to curry favour with voters he would reduce the number of MPs from 650 to 600 and that every constituency would be broadly of the same size. Resulting in every constituency being between 72,810 to 80,473 voters. All this was passed in "The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011".

Now not many existing Welsh seats were within the new required range, hence the reduction of seats in Wales from 40 to 30 and the massive shake up now being proposed.

So where does that leave the parties. Who will win and who will loose? Below is my quick look at the seats.

1 Menai and Ynys Mon. This is likely to be a Labour/Plaid Cymru marginal, with Labour having the edge.

2 Gwynedd. Plaid Cymru

3 Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire Another marginal but this time between Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats with Plaid with the edge.

4 South and West Pembrokeshire. Conservative

5 Caerfyddin. Plaid Cymru

6 Llanelli. Labour

7 Gower and Swansea West. Labour

8 Swansea East. Labour

9 Neath. Labour

10 Aberavon and Ogmore. Labour

11 Bridgend. Labour

12 The Vale of Glamorgan. Conservative

13 Cardiff West. Labour

14 Cardiff Central and Penarth. Labour

15 Cardiff East. Labour

16 Caerphilly and Cardiff North. Conservative/Labour marginal with the Conservatives with a big edge

17 Newport West and Sirhowy Valley. Labour

18 Newport Central. Labour

19 Monmouthshire. Conservative

20 Torfaen. Labour

21 Blaenau Gwent. Labour

22 Heads of the Valleys. Labour

23 Rhondda. Labour

24 Pontypridd. Labour

25 South Powys. Liberal Democrat

26 Glyndwr and North Powys. Becomes the most interesting seat in Wales a four way marginal

27 Wrexham Maelor. Labour

28 Alyn and Deeside. Labour

29 Dee Estuary. Labour

30 North Wales Coast. Conservatives

Labour will almost certainly have nineteen seats and in a good year could be up to twenty three.They currently have twenty six.

Conservatives are more than likely to have four seats and another three would be a realistic number for them to target. They have eight seats in the current Parliament

Plaid Cymru will certainly hold two seats but have the edge in another one and who knows in a good year another 2 could be in their grasp. They have 3 at the moment.

Liberal Democrats are almost certainly to hold one seat. They may have a chance in another two. But they have three at the moment. The review has not been kind to them.

But the interesting tussles will be between MPs of the same party. They will have to play the political equivalent of musical chairs to make sure they don't loose out in the cull of seats. But more of these in future blogs.

Backing from across the pond

2012-01-09T15:44:00.000Z

The leader Plaid Cymru members really want is currently devoting himself to academia on the other side of the pond. It is, of course, Adam Price. But he took a trip over the Atlantic to personally back one of the four candidates. And the candidate that got the Plaid Cymru’s favourite son’s backing? Leanne Wood.

Price says about her as “a new departure for Plaid an English speaker from the Rhondda. But she would be the best person with the clearest vision to transform the party into a pan Wales party.”

“She has reached out both geographically and politically from her Rhondda base. This English speaker has reached out and has had more support from the Welsh Language Society than any other candidate.”

He went to say that it was a two woman race between Elin Jones and Leanne Wood. This, he said. was “a good thing.” He hoped that Plaid would become the only political party with a woman holding all the senior posts in the party.

So there you have it. men have had there go now is the turn of the women. But uniquely it is possible that any candidate that can encourage enough to join the party will gain an advantage. It’s said that many young people are backing Leanne Wood. But to stand a chance of pulling it off she’s got to get them to join. If she succeeds in recruiting them, who know she may cause an upset.

But Price was pressed on the issue perhaps of more interesting to the wider readership of this blog than his endorsement of Wood his views on the spat between Westminster and Holyrood.

On a poker game between the Cameron and the Salmond on the issue, Price would put his money on Salmond being the winner.

Price is right in one respect Cameron is taking an enormous gamble with the Union. In insisting that it’s Westminster decision as to when and how the referendum will be held he pitches a battle between the Scottish Government and Westminster. If Cameron gets his way he will insist that Scotland hold a referendum on the issue in the next 18 months.

To add salt to the wound, he is also likely to insist that it will be a simple yes no vote. He is to rule out a third question on the ballot paper, over a form of devolution stopping short of independence. This latter option is one that much of Scottish Civic Society would like to see and also a large number of Labour members over the border.

Cameron certainly will be laying down the gauntlet to Salmond when he publishes a consultation paper, probably this week, revealing clear legal advice that the independence referendum will be binding under the Scotland Act only if both parliaments agree to its going ahead.

His argument is that the uncertainty created by the prospect of independence is harming the Scottish and UK economies, and a delay until 2014 is not possible.

It doesn’t take much imagination to work out the Scottish Governments response. It will be played as a blatant attempt by an English Tory government’s to interfere with a decision that’s one for the Scottish people.

Cameron’s decision will play very much into the hands of the SNP. They will not miss many opportunities in portraying the campaign as the Scots against the Tory government in England.

Whilst two recent polls have suggested that independence still has only minority support, though it is increasing. The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey showed that backing for a split with the rest of the UK was at a six-year high of 32%, nine points up on last year. Cameron’s intervention will undoubtedly push this number up. It would take a very brave man to bet against it happening.

So why has Mr Cameron taken this enormous gamble? Has he made the calculation that separation from Scotland might serve his purpose better. It would mean that England would likely turn out a Tory government more often than it wouldn’t. Is Cameron preparing to sacrifice the Union for his party’s own political gain.

And if that came to pass, where would that leave Wales? Would the Welsh Labour party be prepared to put up with almost permanent Conservative rule from Westminster? Would a rump of thirty Welsh MPs be anything but a token with little or no influence in Westminster?

Ironically, it might be Welsh Labour and not Plaid Cymru that delivers Welsh independence. Where then would the new leader of Plaid Cymru take her/his party. After all its founding aims would have been met? Would the new political party that was Plaid Cymru be a party that was going to out 'left' Labour, or become a party of the centre right?

Perhaps, it’s a question that members of the party should ask candidates before they cast their votes.

The ripple effect

2012-01-04T15:54:00.002Z

Politicians often don’t think things through if they can grab a quick headline and get themselves some cheap and populist publicity. The latest example is the Chair of the Welsh select committee, David Davies.

Apparently he is much aggitated by the number of immigrants coming into Wales. Indeed he has laid a challenge to green organisations to back him in calling for a curb on immigration.

His argument is based on what he calls “the ripple effect.” That is new arrivals come to London and other major cities. Because of this there is a strain on housing which he argues pushes existing residents further out. They in turn displace others and so on. Eventually, there is an increase inward migration into Wales.

So there we have it, in a nutshell more migrants into the UK means indirectly more settlers in our communities. A compelling argument some would think.

But hold on, what has caused the greater movement from cities outwards is the government, yes, the government that Mr Davies supports with his vote in the House of Commons.

Changes to housing benefit. In my blog on George Osborne’s first budget it was flagged up as in the small print [see http://ogarethhughes.blogspot.com/2010/10/benefits-who.html]

What was predicted then has now come to pass.

Only this week the Guardian’s front page said that housing experts were predicting that “a further 800,000 homes will be put out of reach of people on housing benefit because of government welfare cuts – leaving low income families the choice of cutting spending on food to pay the rent or moving out.”

Mr Osborne’s budget, caused the government to cap housing benefit payments. For example, in a two bedroomed house, housing benefit would be capped at a maximum £250 a week.

The cut is compounded by the allowances being scaled back by pegging them to the bottom third of rents in any borough. The result is that in many towns and cities there will not be enough affordable homes to rent for those claiming local housing allowance, the benefit paid to tenants of private landlords.

So the budget that was supported by Mr Davies is going to lead to many leaving their current homes and moving.

Oh, but the good people of Monmouth are not going to be affected by the fact that there are going to be thousands more claimants than properties that are affordable on benefits alone. No, it will people in coastal towns such as Rhyl and Colwyn Bay, where the poor will migrate to “benefit ghettoes” in seaside towns.

Unless, of course, Mr Davies’s famous ripple effects comes into effect and the existing residents of these areas decide to up sticks and move to Monmouth. Perish the thought, Mr Davies.

No, Mr Davies, would be better occupied asking the Green organisations to join him in a campaign to reverse the rules on housing benefit than play to the popular prejudice that demonises the immigrant.

Gloomy new year

2012-01-03T13:10:00.003Z

What is it about leaders that make them so pessimistic? Here’s the new year and all that’s heard is, how bad things are going to be.

It started yesterday, with the Prime Minister telling the country that if you thought it was bad last year, you ain’t seen anything yet.

Well, he didn’t quite put it in those terms. What he said was that the British economy faces another tough – and possibly worse – year as he admits that Britain may only win a temporary respite from the crisis in the eurozone.

And he’s not alone. Both Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy also warn of a bleak year ahead.

So there it is, the leaders of the three largest European economies putting their collective heads firmly in their hands and moaning that things are bad and likely to get worse.

The warning by the prime minister contrasts with a bold statement in his new year message last year in which he stated: "We have pulled Britain out of that danger zone."

So this years message is an admission that he failed and last year’s message was simply prime ministerial bullshit.

The worry of many European leaders is that their respective countries are heading towards that much talked about double-dip recession.

Whilst Britain can hold its political nose about all things European it cannot escape from its heavy dependence on the performance of the European economies. Whether Cameron and the backwoodsmen in his party like it or not, if Europe sinks, Britain goes under too.

It has finally dawned on the prime minister that his blind adherence to an austere monetary policy has not worked. It's taken him 18 months for his eureka moment that to succeed, you need a plan for growth.

The proposals for more investment in infrastructure schemes is a late recognition by the government that it needed to change tack.

As Cameron said, yesterday, "I know much needs to change. We've got to do more too to bring our economy back to health. So we've set out big plans for the transformation of our infrastructure, starting now – with better roads and railways, super fast broadband and new homes."

Too right, Prime Minister. This blog has been urging such a change throughout 2011.

The policy of austerity that seems the only game in town in dealing with the European crisis is the wrong response. It will lead only to unbearably hardships and civil unrest.

So the message is simple. The only way out of the mess is to stimulate demand and get the economies of Europe to grow again.

So let politicians shake off their gloomy mood. And in the words of Morecambe and Wise “Bring us sunshine.” They have the tools to grow economies. If only they take off their monetary blinkers and start investing in the real economy again.

A year's a long time

2011-12-22T15:00:00.002Z

From a pink elephant to Father Christmas, what a political year it’s been.

In Wales, It started so promisingly for the political class, they had a referendum to occupy themselves with. Should Wales have direct law making powers or not?

You’d think it would raise some real passion, not a bit of it. Those that wanted a real fight were sadly disappointed.

In the yes corner you had the whole of the Welsh establishment. In the other corner a pink inflatable elephant. No contest. A win for the “yes” side and for more powers.

A majority in all areas of Wales apart from, you guessed it, Monmouthshire. The settled view of the minority that bothered to vote and a big yawn for over 60% of the population outside the Cardiff Bay bubble, who couldn’t care less.

And, just like buses, you wait for ages for a referendum and then two come along together. No sooner had the one on more powers for Wales been concluded, the country was being asked what voting system it wanted for Westminster elections. The answer? “Don’t care a toss”, with only 41% bothering to vote.

The real losers were the Liberal Democrats who had been pushing for “a fair voting system” for years. By “fair” they meant the Single Transferrable Vote (STV) but the coalition negotiations foisted the Alternative Vote (AV) system on them. And even this would not happen without a win in a referendum.

The vote was lost. The “yes” for change vote was 32.1%, the “no” got over twice as much with 67.9%.

Not a good year for the Liberal Democrats. Their u-turn on students fees made them the target of student protests, a lost vote on AV and by the year end their coalition partners pull the rug from under them, on Europe. It’s difficult to see what the Liberal Democrats are getting out of the coalition, except for some, their butts on the back seat of government chauffeured cars.

But PR came to the party's aid in May's Welsh elections. The system prevented the Liberal Democrats from a wipe out in the Welsh Assembly elections.

Despite dropping down to their lowest share of the vote, a little over ten per cent, they still returned five Assembly Members. Only down one from when they had about 15% of the vote.

Mind you, it took a while before two of those list places could be filled. Two of the candidates concerned had cocked up their declaration forms. They were members of prescribed public bodies and were ineligible to take up seats in the Assembly.

After a suspension, one came back, namely Aled Roberts, but John Dixon failed to win support and had to step down in favour of Eluned Parrot, the next Liberal Democrat on the South Wales Central list.

But the real losers in the May elections were Plaid Cymru. They lost their grip on power.

Oh how, they must have though after such a success in the referendum a grateful electorate would reward them. Not a bit of it. They polled abominably. They took third place, 3 seats behind the Conservatives who reached 14 seats. Plaid’s worse results since the National Assembly was established and the Conservatives best.

But for the Conservative’s success was bittersweet, in the form of a lost leader. Nick Bourne their leader lost his seat on the top of the Conservative list in Mid Wales because of the success of the party in winning constituency seats. Result Bourne out, and after the steady hand of interim leader Paul Davies, Andrew RT Davies in. He just nosed in front of Nick Ramsey to become the first Conservative Leader of the Opposition in the Welsh Assembly.

And the winner, Carwyn Jones’s Labour. Half the seats in the Assembly, the Liberal Democrats back his budget so it’s all plain sailing for him.

But in politics it’s seldom without hitches. Christmas bought an unexpected gaff when he questioned on S4C the existence of Father Christmas. Result, Paddy Power, make him 10/1 to resign next year.

And that was the year that was in Welsh politics. This blog will go into winter hibernation for a few days now. Back with you in the new year.

So have a good Christmas one and all.

The best leader ever?

2011-12-21T14:05:00.002Z

It’s unlikely to come up as a question in a Christmas quiz, but nevertheless a point of discussion amongst political anoraks on the eve of Plaid Cymru’s leadership election, who has been their most successful leader to date?

Now most would mention the saintly Gwynfor Evans who turned, what was essentially a protest movement to safeguard the Welsh language, into a recognisable political party. Indeed his election to parliament as Plaid Cymru’s first MP was a breakthrough and a coming of age for the party as a force in Welsh elected politics.

But if the measure of leadership is winning votes and seats Gwynfor Evans period as leader was not great. Why? Well, he was careless with his own seat and lost it twice. To loose a seat once may be sheer bad luck, but to loose a seat twice can be seen as careless.

It was Dafydd Elis-Thomas and Dafydd Wigley that gave the party a boost by winning Merionydd and Caernarfon for the party in February 1974.

Gwynfor subsequently joined them in October of that year and had another term until losing his seat in 1979.

Plaid Cymru’s vote had gone up to 175,016(11.5%) votes in Parliamentary elections in 1970 when they fought every constituency in Wales for the first time but down again to 132,544(8.1%) in 1979 when Mrs Thatcher won the UK election

In 1981 Dafydd Wigley took over from Evans as President/Leader of the party. He took over a party that was demoralised having seen its vote go down in the election and perhaps even more of a blow seeing Wales reject even a modest amount of devolution in the 1979 referendum.

But before Wigley could make his mark the internal politics of the party saw him resign, the lefty MP for Meirionydd, Dafydd Elis-Thomas who took over as President in 1985. Under him they gained a third seat in the 1987 election. Ieuan Wyn Jones was elected as MP for Ynys Mon.

Wigley again elbowed his way back to the presidency of the party and saw the party gain it’s fourth Member in Westminster in the 1992 general election. They remained at four until Simon Thomas lost Ceridigion to the Liberal Democrats in 2005

Meanwhile, of course, Plaid’s focus moved from Westminster to Cardiff Bay with the setting up of the National Assembly for Wales.

Under the leadership of Dafydd Wigley in the 1999 Plaid Cymru gained 17 seats in the Assembly and over 28 per cent of the vote. Their most successful results ever. But to who goes the credit? Wigley as leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones the campaign coordinator.

Certainly Plaid Cymru were helped by the perceived disunity within Labour ranks. Labour had had two bruising elections for the leadership of the Welsh party.The first was between Ron Davies and Rhodri Morgan, which the former won but had to subsequently resign after a sex scandal. Then Rhodri Morgan took on Alun Michael who was parachuted in by Tony Blair. Morgan took on the party machine and lost although took over without a contest when Michael resigned.

In that first Assembly election Plaid won seats in the South Wales valleys for the first time, ever. But the best of times were followed by the worst of times. Wigley retired on health grounds. Ieuan Wyn Jones took over as leader. But the party’s vote took a tumble in 2003 Assembly elections. A drop in their seats from 17 to 14 and the party's share of the votes dropping by over 7%.

Jones resigned the Presidency and the leadership of the Plaid group in the Assembly. The party decided to separate the presidency from that of leader and the come back kid of Welsh politics won back his old job. The party members decided that they liked the cut of his jib when compared to Helen Mary Jones and Rhodri Glyn Thomas the other candidates. So Ieuan Wyn Jones became leader of the party with Dafydd Iwan becoming President.

The next Assembly election saw Plaid Cymru gain back three seats. Labour found themselves with only 26 seats. This put Ieuan Wyn Jones in a pivotal position in Welsh politics. He could head a coalition of non-Labour parties and become Plaid Cymru’s first First Minister. Or could form a coalition with Labour. Jones decided to throw his lot with Labour. History will decide whether he was right or wrong.

The gains of government did not last and the party lost seats. They became the third party in the Assembly and their leader decides to step down. But that's politics. One minute you're running the roost next minute you're on your backside.

Nevertheless for a party that only had 609 votes in 1929 to become a party of government in a little under eighty years is no mean achievement. And all this under a man that many describe as lacking charisma. The party might well reflect on this when choosing his successor, it's not always the obvious one in politics that get the results.

But back to the original question, who would dare say that Ieuan Wyn Jones isn’t Plaid Cymru’s most successful leader.

Economic woes

2011-12-20T12:23:00.000Z

Woe, woe and thrice woe, as Frankie Howard used to say. It’s certainly true when looking at the outlook for the economy.

The head of the IMF visited the first woe upon us when she said all nations, starting with Europe, needed to head off a crisis with risks of a global depression. The lack of growth is contagious and her warning underlines how interdependent the countries of the world are.

And as if to underline the IMF’s prediction, another warning of woe comes from Mario Draghi the European Central Bank (ECB) President. He sees the euro zone debt crisis spreading and deepening next year. This happens as Britain refused to contribute its £25bn share to the latest International Monetary Fund bailout fund for distressed states.

According to the ECB the failure of politicians to act in time will cause a "systemic crisis” of similar proportions as was seen at the time of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.

So there we have it, two international financial institutions predicting very hard economic woes ahead.

The third woe comes from nearer home. Indeed from our very own Nationwide. Their consumer confidence index shows confidence at almost an all time low. The index is 40 nearly half the long term average of 77.

It is not difficult to understand why this should be, rising unemployment and the high cost of living.

The survey indicated that people judge it to be a bad time rather than a good time to make a major purchase. If this judgement is translated into behaviour and consumers act on their instinct, we can expect the figures on Christmas trading to be gloomy indeed.

If we don’t shop until we drop over Christmas this will be bad news indeed for the UK economy. Many companies look to Christmas as the high point of their sales, so if demand is not there at this time many will be in receivership early in the new year.

To add further to the woe the Nationwide survey indicated that people were also expecting house prices to fall by an average of 1.1% over the next six months.

Although last week’s inflation figures were down slightly to 4.8% it’s still a great deal higher than wage increases. leaving a big gap in household incomes.

Those living in Wales face a new year of gloom and there is little prospect that the Welsh Government can do much about it.

“Standing Up for Wales” seem a very hollow slogan now. With little real control on the levers of the Welsh economy, the Welsh Government look weak and helpless. Although the`Silk committee is looking into these lack of powers, it’s work has hardly begun and its conclusions are a very long way off. It’s the here and now that preoccupy the population. They want action now.

And for now at least Wales is dependent on Westminster for it’s salvation. But there’s little sign that they have Wales at anywhere near the top of the agenda.

Saturday's horsing tips.

2011-12-16T16:23:00.001Z

Again the races followed are on the telly. Last week the predictions produced 4 winners, a 2nd and and only one that failed. A very healthy return.

Lets hope this Saturday sees the same form kept up.

My selections are below, remember to back each way on 7/1 and above and it might be worth doing a double combination bet on very low odds.

May the luck be with you.

Ascot

13:55 Shawbrook Bank Graduation Chase, 4yo plus, 2m 5f 110y, Class 2

Aerial seems to be ripe for showing he’s got more to offer Giorgio Quercus should do better at this distance

2:30 Lough Derg Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) 4yo plus, 3m 1f, Class 1

I can’t see any other horse in the race doing over Big Buck’s trained P F Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh. The odds will be pretty low so I shall use it as a base for a double.

15:05 GL Events Owen Brown Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed), 4yo plus, 3m, Class 1

Duc De Regniere or The Minack has never really shown its potential but this could be the start of a run

15:35 Ladbroke (Listed Handicap Hurdle), 4yo plus, 2m, Class 1

Brampour was good on flat but has not got used to hurdles it takes a while this could be the start or Sailors Warn

Haydock Park

14:10 Maxilead Metals Supports Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Handicap Hurdle (3yo+ Class 2, 2m 4f,

Zanir or Pateese

14:45 Maxilead Metals Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase 4yo+, Class 2, 3m

Wymott should find the conditions suit and has alwys been regarded as a good chaser in the making or The Sawyer

15:20 Maxilead Metalss Face It Make Up 'Fixed Brush' Novices Hurdle 4yo+, Class 4 2m 4f

Highland Lodge or Diocles

Plaid Cymru"s leadership battle

2011-12-16T13:04:00.002Z

They're all now in the paddock ready for the off in January. No, not the horses for Welsh Grand National but the candidates in the race to take over from Ieuan Wyn Jones as leader of Plaid Cymru.

Four candidates have now declared themselves in the race. The first to indicate he was standing was Dafydd Elis-Thomas. Who was leader of the party when an MP and until May’s election was the Presiding Officer of National Assembly. He know chairs the influential Environmental and Sustainability committee of the Assembly.

Dafydd Elis-Thomas argues that Plaid needs to strategically position itself clearly as a left-of-centre alternative to Labour and is confident this would lead to electoral gain. He said: “In my view there is nowhere else to live comfortably within Welsh politics.”

On the vex question of independence, he maintains “Constitutional independence is a mirage. It’s virtual politics, it’s not real politics. The important thing for Wales is to make itself economically, environmentally and politically sustainable.

He goes on to say “I was happy to talk about self government and self determination but independence is something I found ethically incompatitable I am a Welsh European first and foremost.”

Elin Jones declared her candidature in September and has being campaigning hard since then. Describing her political philosophy, she says “Had I lived in any other country in the world, I would still have been a republican and a socialist. But as a Welsh citizen, then I am also a Welsh nationalist.”

On independence she sees “a new chapter is opening for Plaid Cymru. Our task is to strengthen our country’s autonomy and economy, and to make the case to the people of Wales that our nation is better served by independence than dependence.”

Simon Thomas takes a more pragmatic line on independence “I support independence as the constitutional aim for Plaid Cymru and our nation. But independence in not the answer to today’s immediate problems and focusing on arguing about it only encourages the voters to assume we are not addressing their daily difficulties.

“But Plaid doesn’t just exist for the sake of Wales’ constitutional future. We exist to fight for and deliver fairness in social and economic policy. I believe in a mixed economy - I think Plaid Cymru should be concerned that the private sector is not as strong or successful as it could be. But Plaid Cymru should never be laissez faire about the impact of global capital on our communities. Regulating business for environmental and social benefit is a core value of the party I want to lead. The prize for Plaid is to marry our national ambition with a proper concern for the long term future of our planet. We live in a comparably well off society. “

Leanne Wood who’s candidature was announced yesterday,describes her personal philosophy been honed in the Rhondda Valley which instilled in her “my love of Wales, my socialism and my republicanism.”

She is the only one of the candidates who is not a Welsh-speaker but is very much seen as the candidate of the left. She feels Plaid should push a lot harder for independence “securing independence for Wales is so vital. I am not talking of independence for the sake of independence; I want independence so we can protect and build on those things that are valuable to us all. We campaign for “real independence” in Raymond Williams’ words – independence of thought, as well as constitutional freedom: independence to enable us to develop economic equality; to free us to argue for peace in the world instead of war; to allow us to build on our internationalist traditions by contributing to world affairs while ensuring a vibrant future for our unique language and culture.”

So there we have it, the four likely candidates. Who ever gets the prize will have an up hill struggle to win back the ground tthe party has lost in recent elections.

They are now the third party in the Assembly behind the Conservatives. Politically, Plaid Cymru has chosen to describe and position itself as a left of centre party. In so doing it has allowed the Conservatives to make inroads into the non-Labour vote and in a good year Labour mops up the left vote. Plaid Cymru tend to do well only when Labour governs in Westminster then and only then do Plaid collect the floating protest vote of the left.

If the Party decided to pitch for the central social democratic vote it might have a chance to capture the non-Labour vote. It could then gain some of the ground that has been so successfully cultivated by Welsh Conservatives and also some of those disaffected Liberal Democrat voters.

Looking at the four candidates, three of them do not have any ambitions to move the party to a new political terrain, they are quite happy to continue to fight the same turf war with Labour for the “left” vote. It is only Simon Thomas the declares a more social democratic aspiration and could creditably move the party to the centre ground.

Independence will undoubtedly move central stage in politics in the next few years. Not because of Plaid Cymru, but because of the promised referendum on the issue in Scotland. David Cameron promises to fight for the Union. It will be a ding dong battle about the very nature of the United Kingdom and the relationship between its countries. Plaid Cymru will need to be ready for the debate and have a clear position. Dafydd Elis-Thomas and to a lesser extent Simon Thomas’s views are more ambiguous on the issue than the two other candidates.

So who will emerge the victor? Internal party elections are always difficult to predict, after all who would have thought that the younger Milliband brother would have succeeded.

At the moment Elin Jones would seem to be the favourite, she has done all the running and has certainly increased her profile of late. But as they say, a week is a long time in politics and a campaign is even longer. And as is well know a front runner can often become a cropper.

Latest Unemployment figures

2011-12-14T12:02:00.000Z

The UK unemployment figures just released by the Office for National Statistics(ONS) show an increase to 128,000 since October.

In this pre-Christmas period the figures will not lighten the mood within a coalition government that is already under strain after the EU debacle.

The figure of those unemployed now stands at 2.64 million. This is the highest level since 1994. The jobless rate is up to 8.3% from the 7.9% of the previous quarter.

The number of people out of work for longer than a year rose by 19,000 in the latest quarter to 868,000, the worst figure since 1996.

The figures for Wales also show a rise of 8.3% with the figures now having climbed to 130,000 unemployed between August and October an increase of 10,000 on the previous quarter.

Both young people and women have been particularly hard hit. Unemployment among 16 to 24-year-olds increased by 54,000 to 1.027 million, the highest since records began in 1992.

The Office for National Statistics also reported that women's unemployment increased by 45,000 to 1.1 million, the highest figure since 1988.

The figures also show that much of the increase are from jobs that have been cut from the public sector. In the sector 67,000 jobs were lost. Clearly the private sector is not compensating for these losses, the sector added only 5,000 jobs in the same period.

Even those in work are feeling the pinch. Wages continued to rise well below the rate of inflation. Excluding bonuses, average pay rose 1.8% from a year ago, and by just 0.1% from three months ago. But with inflation running at 4.8% many are facing serious cuts to their income.

Country	Total Unemployed	Quarterly change	Unemployment rate
England	2,217,000	plus 97,000	8.5%
N Ireland	60,000	minus 4,000	6.9%
Scotland	229,000	plus 25,000	8.5%
Wales	133,000	plus 11,000	9.1%

Again of the four countries of the Union, Wales is hardest hit, the other countries seeing a smaller increase in the unemployment rate with Northern Ireland seeing a decrease.

The figures again point to the need for the government in Wales to push a great deal harder on its economic renewal programme. It also validates the stance that Plaid Cymru took over the budget when it pressed for more resources to be pushed towards the economy.

Who wants in and who wants out.

2011-12-13T15:00:00.000Z

Where would Wales stand if the Westminster government were to no longer be part of European Union? This was a question that this blog raised in October (25 October 2011). The question becomes more relevant now that Mr Cameron has isolated himself from the other countries of the EU.

Indeed it has caused some concern to Carwyn Jones who fears “that the UK Government’s new position in relation to the European Union threatens Wales’ national interest.”

Not an unreasonable point of view when one considers that half of all Welsh exports go to Europe and Wales’s agricultural industry is so reliant on the Common Agricutural policy and of course the Welsh Governments economic policy is so heavily dependent on funds from Europe.

But what is interesting In Carwyn Jones’s letter to David Cameron is that he raises the question, would Wales be better served if it was to plough its own furrow as an independent country. Well, he didn’t quite put it like that, but that was certainly his direction of travel.

He said, “For the first time, I am now seriously concerned about whether the interests of Wales can be advanced effectively in Europe by the UK Government. For those of us who are committed to the United Kingdom, and the place of the UK within the European Union, this is a deeply concerning position to be in."

Indeed Cameron had taken unilateral decisions with huge implications for both Wales and Scotland. Many are claiming it as gifting Alex Salmond an open goal on the independence issue.

Salmond being Salmond was quick to see Cameron’s weekend exploits working to his political advantage and was like a greyhound out of the trap ready to exploit the situation.

In a letter to Cameron, Salmond accusied him of damaging Scotland’s interests in Europe and “blundering” into the controversial move to veto European Union treaty changes. Scotland was “left out of the room” and the devolved governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had not been consulted on a matter that greatly affected them.

The situation was not lost on Paddy Ashdown, now Lord Ashdown, who claimed Mr Cameron had strengthened “the hand of Mr Salmond to create an argument for Scotland to leave Britain” and become a separate member state.

Wales and Scotland even if they went their seperate ways from England would automatically retain EU membership as they were already part of Europe through the UK. This of course would change if the UK left before and if, Wales or Scotland gained their independence.

It would be ironical indeed that the arch Unionist David Cameron had made Welsh independence look more attractive than ever anything Gwynfor Evans and Plaid Cymru had done.

And all because the PM said “no.”

Cheltenham tips

2011-12-09T20:28:00.001Z

It was an interesting day's racing in Cheltenham today when I was kindly invited along by friends from the BBC. Two winners helped to make it even more enjoyable. Those that threw caution to the wind and went for the names did a great deal better than those like myself that try a more scientific approach. It just shows that knowledge may mitigate heavy losses but can often be bettered by lady luck.
Not much time to give reasons for my selections for Cheltenham on Saturday but these are the ones where my money goes.
12.10 Hinterland
12.45 Mosseley
1.20 Astracad
1.55 Rev it up
2.30 Quantativeeasing
3.05 Grandouet
3.35 Oscar Whisky

Right foot in or right foot out

2011-12-08T13:24:00.000Z

Tonight’s the night, not for romance but for tough talking. No, there won’t be a love-in between David Cameron and his European partners. Tonight will see the foundations being laid for an United States of Europe. And what of Britain? Left in the cold.

Indeed, in all matters European, the Prime Minister is caught between the rock and a hard place. On the one hand he leads an Eurosceptic party who want an EU referendum and wants out. Whilst on the other he faces increased isolation and marginalisation in many capitals across Europe.

Oh, yes, he has also got to keep a coalition government going with his pro-Europe Liberal Democrat partners.

And even his cabinet colleagues are plotting. Owen Paterson, the Northern Ireland secretary, laid down the gauntlet by declaring that any revision to the Lisbon treaty would have to trigger a referendum.

Quick to get on this particular bandwagon was Boris Johnson who echoed Paterson. Both were following Duncan Smith’s referendum call of last Sunday.

These calls challenge directly Cameron, who asserts no referendum will be required if Britain does not lose more powers to Europe. His view are, that any agreement at the crucial two-day EU summit, designed to save the single currency from collapse, will not involve the transfer of UK powers.

Paterson contradicts Cameron by declaring "If there was a major fundamental change in our relationship, emerging from the creation of a new bloc which would be effectively a new country from which we were excluded, then I think inevitably there would be huge pressure for a referendum."

It’s all a throwback to the John Major day’s with Europe causing seismic rifts within the Conservative party. And he, didn’t have to keep the Liberal Democrats sweet.

Paterson’s view are given credence by a letter written by the leaders of France and Germany. In a joint letter, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are demanding new rules aimed at establishing "fiscal union" among the 17 eurozone countries, whose leaders would hold monthly summits during the crisis and install a permanent president of the euro group as well as a ministerial structure to run the body. This is nothing less than laying down the foundation of a new European state.

But Cameron will be hampered in giving the Eurosceptics what they want by his certain knowledge that Britain needs, for its own economic good, Europe to stabilise the eurozone. For this to happen the Merkel-Sarkozy plan has to succeed.

European institutions have to be able to enforce sanctions on the 17 eurozone countries. When this happens, as it surely must if the euro is to survive, Britain will be out of the loop. Decision’s will be taken that will have real consequences for the British economy and Britain will be powerless, with no say. So whichever way you look at it Cameron’s on a hiding to nothing.

The next forty eight hours will show us what kind of Europe it’s to be. The UK will have confront the issue to be a player or not. But let’s be clear, such a decision will be made in England’s interest. Where does that leave Wales and Scotland, who have gained greatly by membership of the EU. Will they choose to opt in and thus break up the UK or opt out and loose out on crucial European aid?

All in all, it promises to be an interesting run-in to Christmas and beyond. And you thought it was all coming to a close with the National Assembly in recess.

Rate for the job

2011-12-07T15:26:00.002Z

“I can also announce that we are asking the independent Pay Review Bodies to consider how public sector pay can be made more responsive to local labour markets – and we will ask them to report back by July next year.

This is a significant step towards creating a more balanced economy in the regions of our country that does not squeeze out the private sector.” so said George Osborne in his Autumn statement.

This understandably caused a flurry of condemnation from opposition politicians and not only opposition politicians even the Conservative Leader of the Opposition in the Welsh Assembly raised an eyebrow at the policy.

The report, when published next July, will likely, generate plenty of heat if not light, should it recommend a move away from national agreements to regional and local pay agreements.

But there is one area of the public sector that the policy has already been implemented and that is in the pay cheques of our politicians.

If you’re lucky enough to be elected a Member of Parliament, you'll get an annual pay cheque of £65,738. Yes, even before claiming expenses. Contrast this with the pay of politicians in our devolved institutions.

In Scotland a Member of the Scottish Parliament gets £57,521. In the Welsh Assembly a member would get £53,852 and a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly £43,101. So there we have it, regional differentials for the same job.

But the story does not end there. It raises the question why Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland Members of Parliament are paid the same as their English colleagues when they have to do a lot less than their English colleagues.

Why, less? Because the politicians in the devolved countries are doing most of the heavy lifting. It is Assembly Members that deal with issues like health, housing, education and planning amongst many other areas that have been devolved.

It is in these areas of public policy that voters most often go and seek the help of politicians.

And at a devolution stroke, the MP has had this burden lifted off his well paid shoulders. No more full surgeries full of dissatisfied or aggrieved constituents, no more amateur social work. They've had their job description changed for the better.

The workload was cut, but was the rate for the job? Well, no, not on your life. A pay cut, wash your mouth out, Hughes.

Surely such a state of affairs shouldn't go unchallenged. Politicians are constantly urging the voter to make sacrifices for the greater good. How about leading by example.

If the salary of MPs from the devolved countries were to be reduced to that received by their colleagues in these administrations, there would be a saving to the public purse of £1,114,056. In these hardened times not a sum to be sniffed at.

So c’mon David Cameron, push for change. Let the Commons take action. After all, you’ve already declared that there are too many MPs in the Commons, that’s why you're reducing the numbers. Why not save some more cash by paying the proper rate for the job.

To do or not to do, that is the question

2011-12-06T15:06:00.001Z

It’s a Tuesday ritual that all the political parties in the Assembly hold a briefing for the press. Oh, that’s not quite accurate, Labour has never bothered to do a briefing for the fourth estate.

Now, quite why Labour don’t want to speak or brief the press has never been made clear, but it might be because they've always been the party of government and have let “their” Ministers do the briefing. This worked reasonably well, until this new term, now there are no government weekly briefings. They brief only when it suits, not as a matter of course.

But back to the briefings. As often happens a theme emerges and today was no exception. The line was that Carwyn Jones’s government was lazy. In effect the government has done little since their election in May.

Plaid Cymru were first off the mark saying they were going to vote against the government’s budget. Why, you may ask? Well, it’s because the government is not responding to the dire state of the Welsh economy.

When the hacks questioned Ieuan Wyn Jones on Plaid’s stance. His response was that it was unusual for Plaid to vote against a budget, normally they would abstain. But such was their despair with the Welsh Government they had very little choice but vote against the budget.

Then he made an astonishing declaration. In a quarter of a century of his being involved both as a Member of Parliament and an Assembly Member, he hadn’t experienced a government of any hue, doing so little in its first seven months of office, as this Welsh Government.

An echo to this theme of inactivity by the government, came in the Conservative briefing. They pointed out that there had only been one piece of legislation brought to the Assembly for consideration in the seven months since the election.

Andrew RT Davies the Leader of the Opposition contrasted the Welsh Government with the actions of the other British legislatures. In Scotland six bills and been laid and six was also the tally in Westminster. He was critical at this lack of progress, but he particularly pointed out that the Enterprise Minister had not made an oral statement to the Chamber on the economy since she took over the portfolio in May.

But, perhaps, the unkindest cut of all came from the Liberal Democrats. They were claiming that their support for the budget and the negotiations surrounding the budget had resulted in a wake up call for the government. Peter Black the Liberal Democrat claimed that the Welsh Government “had” been lethargic but "now" they, the Liberal Democrats, had helped “refocus the government” and they would now snap out of their lethargy.

Of course, there was no opportunity to get the government’s take on all the criticism that they’re a 'do nothing' government, ‘cos they don’t 'do' press briefings, either.

Racing and end of an era

2011-12-02T18:47:00.000Z

On Saturday my visit will not be to the races but to see Bangor City play in the Welsh Cup. This is likely to be my last visit to Farrar Road before the club moves to its new home in the New Year.

But the rest of you can follow the racing on the television. Again its Channel 4 Racing, they visit Sandown and Aintree. There are some strong fields and will offer some exciting racing. If its national hunt racing you like, you can’t beat Aintree for thrills.

Last Week two of the tips were winners and with one place at good odds it was a modestly successful day. However, as my school reports used to say, there’s plenty of room for improvement. Maybe this is the Saturday. I've chosen some real outsiders so that if they come up you'll have plenty to spend on Christmas, if they don't well its an Oxo cube instead of the turkey.

So by the time the results are checked and you’re all counting your winnings, Bangor City will be in the draw for the fourth round of the Welsh Cup and there will be happiness all round.

Sandown

1:55 Markel Insurance Henry viii Novices‘ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2 miles

Al Ferof is such a smooth horse and is unlikely to falter here if any can see it off it could be Eradicate

Aintree

2:10 Betfred Becher Handicap chase (Listed Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m2f

Here I'm going for an each way shout with Swing Bill or Hello Bud would be another one with good odds for an each way bet and was the winner in the race last year

Sandown

2:30 Bavaria Imported Premium Lager Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m110y

Alasi is a good each way bet here but Edgardo Sol has a bit of class

Sandown

3:05 Sportingbet Tingle Creek Chase (GRADE 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m

Sizing Europe will set the pace and is the horse to beat but the rival here is Kauto Stone

Aintree

3:20 Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m5f110y

Stewarts House is a solid horse or Buffalo Bob who came third in Newbury

Sandown

3:40 Otkrite London National (Handicap Chase) Cl 2( 5yo+)
3m5f110y

Do it For Dalkey is just a class act but gives better odds each way and might just be the time to catch him Deep Purple

Who's on strike

2011-12-01T12:06:00.001Z

“Accordingly the Parliament resolved—

That the Parliament recognises and appreciates the valuable work done by Scotland’s public sector workers; notes the importance of pensions that are affordable, sustainable and fair and believes that long-term pension reforms must be taken forward with consent and in partnership; registers its strong opposition to the UK Government’s decision to impose a general levy on pension contributions and considers this to be a cash grab for the purposes of deficit reduction rather than a move to secure the long-term sustainability of public sector pensions; regrets the fact that UK ministers appear to be relishing the prospect of strike action, which will cause major disruption and inconvenience to ordinary members of the public across Scotland; condemns the UK Government’s

threat to cut Scotland’s budget by £100 million next year alone, on top of drastic cuts to Scotland’s budget, if the Scottish Government does not implement the UK

Government’s immediate levy on pensions contributions, and calls on the UK Government to reverse its short-term pensions cash grab.”

The Scottish Parliament carried the motion yesterday with 63 votes For and 18 votes against.

A motion that those that were on strike yesterday would fully approve of. Many Welsh public sector workers would surely have welcomed such a motion being passed by the National Assembly.

There was a debate about the strike in the House of Commons and it featured in the exchanges between Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.

Members of Parliament had many different and varied views on the day of action, but they were in the Chamber debating the issues.

And in Wales? Nothing, not a word. Our democratic institution was silent. Why? Because it had decided to close for the day.

With about thirty per cent of the Welsh workforce being employed in the public sector it’s importance to the Welsh economy cannot be underestimated. Surely yesterday, of all days the Senedd should have been open for business.

The Assembly should have been debating the issues facing the public sector. The previous day George Osborne had upped the ante on job cuts to the sector from the 400,000 previously expected to 710,000 as a result of the new spending cuts announced. Many of these jobs will be in Wales.

Such announcements normally would have seen an Assembly Member asking for leave to place an emergency question to a Minister, but not yesterday, silence was the order of the day.

The whole institution had given up its democratic mandate for gesture politics. Better to be seen on a picket line for a photo opportunity than doing the job they were elected to perform.

The question has to be asked how come that the Scottish Parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Westminster Parliament could meet but not Wales’s democratic institution. Yet, again our politicians have shot themselves in the foot.

The National Assembly may be a relatively young political institution but it doesn’t give a licence to it’s members to act in an immature way. The message to them all - grow up.

Europe and the UK

2011-11-30T15:35:00.000Z

The Chancellor, yesterday told the country that weaker growth and higher borrowing would force the country to endure a record breaking six years of austerity. Then as soon as he had made his statement he was off. To where you might ask? To Brussels for an emergency meeting with European finance ministers.

And oh, how he needed to go there. For he knows that however miserable the prospect outlined in the House, it will be a hell of a lot worse if the crisis in the euro zone is not resolved soon.

If the European financial system goes belly up it would tip an already fragile UK economy into a double-dip recession.

As it is, the Office for Budget Responsibility painted a grim picture of what the country can expect until way past the next election. The government is on course to borrow an additional £111bn over the next five years, while unemployment will hit 2.8 million and living standards will continue falling until 2013.

But it is those in the public services that are going to take the biggest hit.They will face job losses totalling 710,000, compared with the 400,000 it had previously expected as a result of the government's spending cuts.

But Osborne let the cat out of the bag that things could be a lot worse when he said the Treasury was now undertaking "extensive contingency planning" to cope with a possible break-up of the euro, and admitted: "If the rest of Europe heads into recession, it may prove hard to avoid one here in the UK."

And what of Europe? The signs there are ominous. There are fears that Europe has entered the make-or-break phase of its crisis, as a sign of this Italian 10-year bond yields were closing in on the 8% level yesterday.

The EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said: "We are now entering the critical period of 10 days to complete and conclude the crisis response."

So whether our misery becomes a whole lot worse is no longer in the hands of George Osborne but in rather in the hands of Angela Merkel and how she responds in the next fortnight to the Euro zone crisis.

What is certain is that the next General Election will be a strange affair indeed. The government will have to fight it having already committed to £15bn of additional spending cuts for the first two years of the new parliament.

So parties will approach the election with little scope to make improvements to the wealth of the country. So the arguments will be about how the limited wealth is distributed. So the language of the next election will be about fairness. What is the fair thing to do when the coffers are low. The party(s) that is most convincing on this will get the spoils.

Wales and the Autumn statement.

2011-11-29T16:33:00.000Z

George Orborne in his Autumn Statement has seemingly declared war on public sector workers in general and on the Welsh public sector workers in particular.

His freezing of pay packets to one per cent will hit all workers in the sector but his proposal to introduce regional wage rates will particularly hit those in Wales. Public sector workers in the country will see their future wage packets considerably smaller than those doing the same job on the other side of Offa's Dyke.

The Chancellor's appeal to the unions to call off tomorrow’s strike can hardly be taken seriously after such announcements. Proposing to cut wages is hardly likely to get public service unions in a reasonable frame of mind to negotiate a deal over pensions.

Why he should set about to alienate the unions without any real gain for the economy is difficult to comprehend? One can only deduce it is ideological rather than a practical economic step.

To dampens UK household expenditure and consequently growth, particularly in the retail sector at such a time makes no practical sense at all. Especially when the Chancellor was forced to concede that the UK risks falling into recession in the coming months and the economy will barely grow next year.

This freeze and the prospect of regional wages will have a disproportionate impact on Wales. A large number of workers employed in the public sector in Wales.

Wales has not done well from George Osborne’s statement. Out of the £30bn UK ‘National’ Infrastructure Plan Wales will only get £216m.

Worryingly the changes to the growth figures in the short term show the the Government’s economic policy is just not delivering. The OBR is now predicting that Britain will expand by just 0.7% in 2012 (down from 2.5% in the March forecasts).

With such low growth figures in Britain, it is almost inevitable that Wales will either be or, maybe is, already in recession. The economy in Wales has always lagged behind the rest of the UK. Last month's unemployment figures showed us as the country that topped this miserable league in the UK

What’s to be done? Well, if the Chancellor has not seen Wales has a high priority, the Welsh Government needs too.

The Welsh government needs to up it’s game. It needs to be far more proactive than hitherto.

Ways have to be found to get more infrastructure development in Wales. If Merseyside can get the Chinese to invest in an Atlantic gateway and other parts of England getting Middle Eastern countries and Asia countries investing in infrastructure projects, why not Wales? Why does Wales seem to miss out on large infrastructure developments?

Look at our record. No Severn Barrage. Not a mile of electric railway track in the country. Abysmal transport links between north and south of the country. No decent airport. The list is endless.

C’mon Carwyn lets get a list of major projects that Wales can take to investors. Let’s not be limited by our lack of ambition. After all your manifesto was “to stand up for Wales.” Now is the time to deliver.

Racing fun on TV

2011-11-25T20:44:00.001Z

The government may have got their deal by offering a crumb or two the Liberal Democrats way. But the tips below will give you a great deal more that you’ll get out of the budget settlement!

Although all our budgets took a hit last week with only one winner and no placed horses. It was our worse results since starting this Saturday racing blog. This week we’ll have to raise our game.

Again it’s the terrestrial television racing that is followed and these are at two meetings, Newbury and Newcastle. Both offer some really good races and there will be plenty of excitement and my guess some upset of favourites.

Newbury

2:05 Sportingbet Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered as the Gerry Feilden Hurdle) (Listed) Cl1 2m110yds

The in-form horse is Empire Levant but odds are low so the question is which horse could give you a better return esach way and Azari could just do it for you

Newcastle

2:20 Stanjames.com fighting fifth hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 (4yo+)

Overturn is fit an raring to go Binocular is a top horse but just seems to let you down when you think it’s in the bag

Newbury

2:35 Sportingbet Long distance hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 (4yo+) 3m110y

Big Buck’s unlikely to be beaton but obviously it is reflected in odds so Pettifour each way. Back the two with Big Buck’s for a win only

3:10 Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 (4yo+) 3m2f110y

Sarando as an each way bet Great Endeavour for win

Newcastle

3:30 At The Races rehearsal chase (Handicap) (Listed) Cl 1 (4yo+) 3m

Ashfield’s dream is another each way bet although Hey Big Spender will be fancied

Newbury

3:45 Sportingbet Handicap chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f

Osric each way Coup Royale has the pace but his jumping is all over the place.

Budget agreement

2011-11-25T17:15:00.001Z

So the courtship is over, a new relationship starts now. With Labour and who, you might ask, - the Liberal Democrats. Yes, with the Liberal Democrats in Wales. Why? Because a deal has been done with Labour on the budget.

What is the deal? An extra £20 million for a new Pupil Deprivation Grant, which will stand at £32.04 million in total for 2012/13, to reduce the impact of poverty on educational attainment.

The additional £20 million will be reflected in the Final Budget to be tabled on Tuesday 29 November, and represents a 16.5% increase to the total additional allocation made in the Draft Budget.

The Liberal Democrats have been pushing hard for a deal so that they could creditably go into the local elections with a fig leaf that separates them from the coalition with the Conservatives in Westminster. Their campaign message will be slightly easier to sell now.

Whether the local Labour parties in Swansea, Cardiff and Wrexham welcome this deal is another matter. In these areas they are challenging the Liberal Democrats for control of the councils.

So why not a deal with Plaid Cymru? Well, Plaid Cymru were pushing for £45 million. A price to high for Labour. It also helps Carwyn Jones with his backbenchers who hated the One-Wales agreement with Plaid Cymru. Having a smaller less challenging party on board is much more to their liking.

It can safely be said that an early coalition deal with Plaid Cymru is now very remote. Indeed there is little appetite within Plaid Cymru for a repeat coalition with Labour.They have to decide on their new leader and then the future direction they as a party will take.

As to the budget itself, there will be a vote on the draft budget next week, before finally putting it to bed on 6 December. It all now becomes a bit of a formality with the government having ensured majority support for next years finances.

From riches to riches

2011-11-24T15:13:00.000Z

It’s a closed shop and a very effective it is. No, not a trade union but the closed doors of the UK’s Board rooms.

How effective a closed shop it is, was highlighted this week in the High Pay Commission’s final report titled Cheques with Balances: Why tackling high pay is in the national interest.

In commenting on the report the chair of the High Pay Commission Deborah Hargreaves said,

“There’s a crisis at the top of British business and it is deeply corrosive to our economy. When pay for senior executives is set behind closed doors, does not reflect company success and is fuelling massive inequality it represents a deep malaise at the very top of our society.

The British people believe in fairness and, at a time of unparalleled austerity, one tiny section of society – the top 0.1% -continues to enjoy huge annual increases in pay awards. Everyone, including each of the main political parties, recognises there is a need to tackle top pay. That’s why we are saying there must be an end to the “closed shop” that sets top pay and that pay packages should be clear, open and published to shareholders and the public.”

It couldn’t be put better. The country is facing a strike in the public sector over cuts to pensions, working families in Wales are finding themselves in homeless hostels because what they earn isn’t enough to pay the rent and put food on the table and the long term sick are seeing their benefits cut.

And what of our captain’s of industry? Are they sharing the pain, bearing their share of the burden? Not on your life, they’re all rushing to get their snouts in the trough.The report points the finger at the bosses. Showing them to be a grabbing self serving lot, voting themselves stratospheric pay increases.

Redistribution has certainly taken place, but not from the rich to the poor, quite the opposite, wealth flowed upwards to the top 0.1%.

Coincidently the Office of National Statisitics, yesterday, reported that the gap between the highest and lowest paid had widened considerably. The bottom tenth of earners saw their pay creep up just 0.1% between 2010 and 2011 while the top tenth saw their pay grow 18 times faster.

With inflation running between 4 and 5 per cent many at the lowest end of the scale saw their pay cut in real terms.

The pay of waiters and waitresses – who are mostly part-time workers – fell 11.2% year-on-year to £5,660. Hairdressers' salaries fell 4.5% to £9,599, while cleaners' remuneration fell 3.4%. This explains why many are not making ends meet and that there is an increase in the number of homeless.

The industrial unrest we're about to see in the public sector is surely a reflection and consequence of their pay only going up by an average 0.3% last year. It is less than half the increase of that of the private sector.

At the other end of the scale, chief executives and directors of leading organisations saw an average salary of £112,157, a rise of 15%. The salaries of senior corporate managers also saw a hike up with a substantially increase – up 7.1% year-on-year to £77,679.

Inequality of income is not new, it happened under Labour too. The gap widening in their term of office as they sucked up to tthe City. But, at least, they could claim that when they were in charge, real wages increased in every income group.

Now the choice facing many, is no pay or low pay.

The gap between the four nations is also wide. The median salary in London of £27,560 and in Wales is nearly 30 per cent lower at £19,472 and Northern Ireland's £18,494, the lowest-earning region of the UK. Average earnings in Scotland were £20,862.

It is a fact that with less cash in the pockets of ordinary people consumer growth takes a hit. And economic recovery? Well it don't happen. The rich may get the pleasure of a large wad of cash. But it’s only the poor that can spend in such numbers to get a country's economy moving again. Why is it that politicians never seem to understand this basic fact.

Easier for bosses to dismiss staff

2011-11-23T15:28:00.000Z

It’s going to be made a great deal easier for bosses to get rid of their staff if the government get their way. Of course, it’s not a vindictive move against the workers, but done with the best of motives. And the motives? To boost economic growth and cut back on red tape.

What are the changes? The ninty day consultation period that is required by law when twenty or more redundacies are anounced is to be reduced by two thirds to a thirty day period.

After lobbying by business leaders, the number of cases going to employment tribunals will be cut and the qualifying period for workers to be able to claim unfair dismissal will rise from one to two years' service.

But, there is deadlock between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats on the proposal to allow bosses to sack “poorly performing” staff without explanation.

Whilst this particular proposal is on hold because it's a step to far for the Liberal Democrat, they are going along with the other proposals.

The ideas are contained in a Downing Street review, headed by venture capitalist Adrian Beecroft and a Conservative Party member and donor.

Understandably these changes are opposed by the trade union who say that it’s return to "Victorian employment practices".

Such proposals will add to the insecurity of workers that are already worried about their jobs because of the general economic downturn. The result will be a general reluctance amongst the work force to go out to spend thus making a dire economic situation a whole lot worse. The last thing required at the moment, is to dent further, consumer confidence.

It is doubtful that the proposals will add a great deal to streamlining business but it will add to the general feeling that this government just doesn't care about ordinary people. There is a feeling abroad that the Conservative majority in government are working to the agenda of their business chums and the Liberal Democrats are being dragged reluctantly along with this anti-worker agenda.

Not what was intended

2011-11-22T15:16:00.001Z

An invisible hand, the ratio of girls to boys in India and China, a plague of rabbits in Australia and a wildlife sanctuary in Korea. What do they have in common? It sounds like a quiz question, doesn’t it, but no, it’s an example of the law of unintended consequences.

Most students of economics will have been introduced to the concept through the work of Adam Smith. He maintained that an individual is led by an “invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from regard to their own self interest.” The unintended consequence of a an act of self interest - the public good.

The higher ratio of boys to girls in countries like India and China is put down to the unintended consequence of the ultrasound. In both societies, boys are valued, girls are not. So the ultrasound enables women to decide on an early abortion of the unwanted girl foetus.

Rabbits were introduced to Australia for food. In no time at all Australia was over run with the rodents leading to the destruction of valuable arable crops. Less food, not more. The unintended opposite of what was intended.

More positively the setting up of a buffer zone between North and South Korea has lead to an unintended wildlife sanctuary developing in this zone.

That actions have unintended consequences, is a lesson now understood by economists and other social scientists but for some strange reason doesn’t seem to have penetrated the minds of politicians.

Two examples of this. The first is that of the economy.

By cutting down hard and quickly on public expenditure to eliminate the country’s debts it has unintentionally made it more difficult for the government to meet their own debt reduction targets.

Cutting down on public expenditure has increased unemployment and consequently increasing the benefit bill. Causing the debt reduction target to slip further into the future.

Another example, modernising the monarchy.

In an attempt by David Cameron to prove his radical credentials he came up with a cunning little plan that would give him brownie points without the expenditure of much political capital.

Off he went to the Commonwealth conference with a plan to change the rules for deciding who gets the Crown.

No, its not going to be raffled all that’s being proposed is a change to the rules of succession. From now on, the first born of the Monarch, irrespective of whether a girl or boy will succeed to the throne. Oh, how different history would have been if the male child of the Monarch had not been allowed to elbow aside his older sister.

Not only did Mr Cameron get a deal on equality between the sexes but also got agreement that future monarchs will be allowed to marry Catholics. Removing at a stroke the anti-Catholic bias at the heart of the monarchy.

All good stuff. But has Mr Cameron thought of the Law of Unintended Consequences. Trying to modernise the British Monarchy a laudable objective, but the rub is that it involves reversing 300 years of law making.

Changing and amending three hundred years of law is the task Mr Cameron now has to get through Parliament. Changes will need to be made to the Coronation Oath 1688, the Bill of Rights 1689, Royal Marriages Act 1772, amongst many others.

But perhaps the one that will raise the most interest, will be the need to change the Act of Union 1707 with Scotland. The religious changes, being proposed, go the heart of this act.

To revisit this Act must be music to the ears of Alex Salmond, the First Minister of Scotland. Why? Well, it will become very clear that the Act of Union is no ordinary Act of Parliament. It is a treaty between two separate sovereign polities. So why should an ardent unionist like Mr Cameron choose to reopen discussions on this treaty now?

It is unclear that at the very time that independence is so high the political agenda in Scotland what is to be gained by opening up this particular hornets nest.It seems a strange piece of timing. Baffling indeed.

Surely, it raises the stakes and plays into the hands of those that want independence. One can only conclude that in rushing into change three hundred years of British history, the Prime Minister just did not think things through.

The unintended consequence of modernising the Monarchy may take us back to the time when there was but one Monarch of two very separate Kingdoms inhabiting these island.

TV Racing

2011-11-18T20:30:00.000Z

This Saturday Channel 4 races are again followed. All six races are long and demand horses with a great deal of stamina.

The difficulty at this early part of the jump season one is dependent a bit on last season’s form and just as a week is a long time in politics a season is an awfully longtime in horse racing. A lot can happen to a horse in that time. So one relies on no the pedigree of the horses but that of the trainer to decide where to put our lolly.

A regular reader was slightly confused with my methods. Let my explain, the horses highlighted in bold are the ones that I tip to win, but there is always another horse included that is worth a punt these are usually an each way bet. I say this because last week would have delivered a profit if the two horses mentioned had been backed. Some of them had very big odds and were placed.

2:10 Ascot

Amlin 1965 Chase Grade 2 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m3f

Master Minded will be difficult to beat Somersby may stand a chance but will need to up game

2:30 Haydock

Betfair.com/Paulnicholls “Fixed Brush” Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (Class 1) (4yo+) 3 mile

Robinson Collonges has to prove stamina or Rival D’Estruval who carries a bit of weight but a good each way bet.

2:45 Ascot

Coral Hurdle (Registered as the Ascot Hurdle Race) Grade 2 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m3f110yd

King of the Night might just put his nose in front of likely favourite Oscar Whisky

3:05 Haydock

Betfair Chase (Registered as the Lancashire Chase) Grade 1(Class 1) (5yo+) 3m

Long run will be clear favourite but the odds will be so poor so go for an each way bet on Time for Rupert who is trained by Paul Webber who had the privelege of training horse that I once part owned.

3:20 Ascot

Carey Group Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m1f

King Edmund a good each way bet or Anquetta for a safer option

3:40 Haydock

Betfair Multiples Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m

Mostly Bob was a horse that never really came up to his potential last season but maybe this will be the year Gansey is the one to beat.

Don't blame the Europeans

2011-11-17T12:52:00.000Z

It is in the nature of politicians to find a scape goat to blame if things go wrong. The crisis in the Euro zone fulfills this role for the Westminister government. Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are blaming the travails of the UK economy on European mismanagement. Oh if it was only so.

Yesterday’s unemployment figures and the downgrading of growth forecasts made by Mervyn King to 1% until the middle of 2012 will undoubtedly lead the Office for Budget Responsibility(OBR) to say that that this downturn will not allow Mr George Osbourne to meet his commitments of eliminating Britain’s debts by 2014-15.

So there we have, it all the pain with none of the gain. The Chancellor got it wrong as this blog kept saying, a higher rate of growth was necessary to prevent damaging public finances wrought by deepening unemployment. The promise made at the time of his first emergency budget that "we are on track to have a balanced current structural budget by the end of the parliament" looks pretty hollow now.

The whole scale surgery to the public sector with the private sector unable or unwilling to take up the slack, has got us into the situation where a million young people between 16 and 24 are out of work and the highest unemployment rate since 1996 of 8.3% with unemployment in Wales reaching 137,000 or 9.3% its highest level since 1992.

The problems with the economy in general and with Wales in particular are deep rooted and can’t be blamed on the Euro zone crisis. Undoubtedly the Euro crisis will now make a bad situation a whole lot worse. After all, over forty percent of the UK’s trade is with Europe and if they fall into recession we’re also going to be in the mire.

So what’s to be done. Well, Osborne needs to use his Autumn statement to try to generate more growth in the economy. He particularly needs to think more creatively as to how to deal with youth unemployment.

In Wales, the budget needs to be changed to push for more capital projects and more emphasis on economic support. More needs to be put into social housing, partly to deal with the large arrears and increased homelessness caused by the recession, but more particularly because house building is a good and quick way of getting the construction industry moving.

But above all there needs to be a Commission established to look at how we deal with the endemic problems of the Welsh economy. Bottom of almost every economic league table is not a good place to be.

Budget fun

2011-11-16T10:52:00.001Z

Income and Expenses	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
Previous month’s balance		£3,305	£6,610	£9,915	£13,220	£16,525	£21,830	£24,255	£27,560	£30,865	£34,170	£37,025
Available Cash	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000	£7,000
Additional income	£0	£0	£0	£0	£0	£2,000	£0	£0	£0	£0	£0	£3,000
Monthly expenses	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695	£3,695
Planned expenses	£0	£0	£0	£0	£0	£0	£880	£0	£0	£0	£450	£900
Savings	£3,305	£6,610	£9,915	£13,220	£16,525	£21,830	£24,255	£27,560	£30,865	£34,170	£37,025	£42,430

Preparing the household budget is never an easy task, there are some things that have to be met. Enough needs to be set aside for a roof over head, food and clothing and that’s only the basic needs taken care of. What about all the other expenditure? Not the easiest of tasks at the best of times, but to do it with less cash coming in is miserable.

Imagine this when you have to manage a £14 billion budget, with little room for manoeuvre and members of the family screaming at you for more money for their favourite things. And oh yes, if they gang up on you they can stop you allocating cash for the things important to you.

That’s the task the Welsh Government faces. To top it all, you’ve got to do it against the clock ticking towards a 6 December deadline. So what’s to do, as they say in the valleys?

Well, the Government has to reach an accommodation with at least one of the other parties and get them on side. It has to cut down on spending in an area it regards as important and shift the cash into an area earmarked by one of the opposition parties for attention. Not an easy task, but far from being impossible.

Despite the protests of the tightness of the budget, there is always slack. Indeed there is seldom a financial year that ends without an underspend. It is no coincidence that if you travel around Wales in February and March your progress will be impeded by temporary traffic lights. This because authorities desperately try to get cash spent before the year end for fear that will be taken back into the coffers of the Welsh Government. It doesn’t just happen in roads it happens in many other expenditure areas as well.

So we can expect Jane Hutt, the Finance Minister, to have some scope for budget adjustments. There is also a little windfall of £38.9m that has come the Welsh Government’s courtesy of the Council tax freeze in England. The funding formula means Wales gets a percentage of that expenditure, to use anyway it wants to. Who knows there might be even more room for manoeuvre after Mr Osborne’s Autumn Statement on the 29 November.

It all amounts to Jane Hutt’s cupboard not being completely bare. She may have some goodies to offer to one or more of the opposition parties. But which?

The Conservatives want more money spent on the health budget. It is the biggest spending department but is taking the biggest hit of all with £102m being shaved off. It is unlikely that Labour politically could do a deal with the Conservatives and the money just ian’t there. Deal or no deal, in this case, no deal.

The Liberal Democrats are pitching for more money for schools and particularly more help for poorer pupils. Now it is quite possible to re-order priorities within the budget, but would Leighton Andrews allow any changes to his plans. It is difficult to see, despite Carwyn Jones cwching up to Kirsty Williams in the Chamber, yesterday.

No, my hunch is that the deal will be done with Plaid Cymru. Why should they have favour bestowed on them, you ask? Put simply, it’s the economy, stupid. They want more help for it. Government just might accept that it's an area it could have done more about. Of late the government have scurried around trying to show that they’re upping their game to right the downward spiral that the Welsh economy finds itself in.

During the last few weeks they’ve re-announced their capital expenditure programme. Last week’s they had an economic summit, after which the Welsh government may have realized that they’ve got to raise their game in this area.

The latest unemployment figures showing that there are now a 137000 people unemployed will add further to the pressure on them to do something for the economic portfolio.

The budget is the first challenge to Carwyn Jones’s government and yesterday’s defeat is a reminder that a government without a majority have to listen and learn. The next fortnight will test them and also the resolve of the opposition parties. But be in no doubt, a deal will be struck.

Voting Methods

2011-11-14T16:18:00.006Z

Labour have gone back to their default position on voting methods. They’ve never, since the demise of J Keir Hardy, been known as enthusiasts of PR. They’ve always wanted a first past the post system for the Assembly elections, with each constituency electing two members and the winners taking all.

Why? It enabled them to advance women into elected office without upsetting the misogynists, who thought that Welsh politics should be an all male affair, the women could do the tea at branch meetings. "They also serve that stand and stir a brew" was their attitude.

When Mr Blair decided to hold a referendum on devolution the cozy little deal that Welsh Labour was cooking up of a two member constituency went out of the window.

The new situation required Labour to reach out to other parties if the referendum was to be won. The response of the other parties would have been to blow a big raspberry if they were asked to campaign for a Glamorgan County Council on stilts.

So the new reality meant that Labour had to put a peg on their collective noses and reluctantly opt for PR.

In order, to advance women the party had to find another way. It opted for twinning constituencies. Allowing an equal number of men and women to be chosen as candidates.
It was never popular amongst the rank and file and was dropped as soon as Anita Gale, the then general secretary of the party, was kicked up to the House of Lords. But that, as they say, is another story.

But now we can welcome back our old friend Gerry Mandering, he's active again in the ranks. Why? Well, Labour have seen the way to revert back to their old ways.

Yes, an opportunity is about to arise that could give them what they've always wanted, no PR. The chance has come about because the Westminster government has decided to reduce Welsh MPs from forty to thirty.

Well, what’s that got to do with the Assembly you may ask? Well, nothing really, except that politicians have decided that the poor voter would be confused if he/she had to vote in constituencies with different boundaries. They clearly have a very low opinion of the voter.

So the Laurel and Hardy of Welsh politics, the Welsh Labour First Minister Carwyn Jones and Shadow Secretary of State Peter Hain on Saturday issued a clear message to the UK Government – “You have no mandate to change the current electoral system in Wales.”

Cynically knowing that change is in the air, not least because they also want the same boundaries for the two elections.

They don’t want change so they say, but if there is change “they want an outcome that best serves Wales.”

Fair enough, who can disagree with wanting the best for Wales.

The best for Wales, just happens to be the best for Labour. According to the pair, “a 60 member Assembly, comprising 30, two member seats.” Labour’s original proposals, so no shocks there.

“Welsh Labour is united behind a common goal of securing a voting system that best serves the people of Wales.” You bet they are.

So there it is, a system of first past the post, which just by chance gives Labour a massive majority and leaves very few opposition members to scrutinise them, “best serves Wales.”

Hmm, unlikely. It wouldn’t even be good for Labour. Peter Hain could be excused for thinking Westminster, and applying it to Wales, but Carwyn Jones has no such excuse.

Let’s be clear, there is a difference in scale between representation in Westminster and representation to the Assembly. A party could sweep into power in Westminster and have a very large majority but there would still be enough members elected to provide an effective opposition. That is the nature of the beast.

Not so in Wales. The proposals would reduce the opposition in the Assembly to an ineffective rump. Hardly good for democracy, and certainly does not serve Wales’s interest.

It is unlikely, even under the existing election system, that Labour will not be in power in Wales. They’ve been in power since 1999 and this situation is unlikely to change in the near future, despite the best efforts of opposition parties.

To be in power for ever and a day, without any real opposition, would not serve the people of Wales well.

Welsh politics would be akin to that of the old Soviet empire - a one party state with cronyism as its guiding principle.

What’s to be done, then? Mrs Gillan should take up Labour’s argument. If the argument is, “there is no mandate for change,” why should Westminster attempt to change things.

Let her devolve the decision making to the Assembly. Give the National Assembly the powers to decide on their own election methods. The only caveat should be that any change would require a two thirds majority in the Assembly.

Carwyn Jones couldn't object, after all it is a further transfer of powers to Wales.

And just maybe, trying to reach a consensus with other political parties might “really best serve the people of Wales.” Who knows they might agree to the proposals recommended by the Labour Lord Richard for an eighty seat Assembly elected by the single transferrable vote. Now that would be good for democracy in Wales.

It could be for richer

2011-11-11T23:21:00.001Z

With the economy in free fall, the stock exchange up and down like an yo-yo, these racing tips might be a safer place for your cash. Mind you horses can fall sometimes, but surely not our tips.

Again we’re following Channel 4 racing as S4C clearly believes that Welsh speakers won’t part with their cash and wouldn’t have an interest in the sport of kings. Although it’s never as good as being there but the feed back from regular readers of the Saturday blog is that it’s fun.

Last weekend we did particularly well, let’s hope we’re on a bit of a run so here goes. Remember the golden rule each way on odds above 7/1.

Cheltenham

1:55 Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y

Its either Hennessy or Balthazar King who has been below par recently but this could be the start of better things

Lingfield

2:15 Blue Square Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f

Hunters Light[1st] will take some beating Suits me [3rd] might just do it

Cheltenham

2:35 Paddy power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 2m4f110y

Quantativeeasing [2nd] would be a good each way bet but Mon Parrain is now been trained by Paul Nichols who has never won this race so this could be his day.

Lingfield

2:50 Blue Square Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f

Bajan Tryst is the one for me but Secret Asset will get those who play it safe.

Cheltenham

3:10 Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y

Oscargo [3rd] did well in Chepstow and seem to show more to offer but a good each way bet with big odds is Got Attitude

Wetherby

3:25 totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y

Rebel Dancer[4th] or European Dream

Cheltenham

3:40 Ultima Business Solutions Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y

Cape Dutch [2nd] will certainly catch the eye but for me its Kayaan

Monitor how well or badly the tips performed with the results in italics

Money, money, money

2011-11-11T11:43:00.000Z

The European economic recovery witnessed this last year has hit the buffers. Yesterday the troubles over debt caused the EU to slash their forecast for eurozone growth down from 1.8% to just 0.5%. Many economists would regard that figure as optimistic.

With Europe being the area that accounts for about 40% of the UK’s exports this forecast is bad news indeed. The whole of continent could face recession next year. Certainly, the Office for Budget responsibility is almost certain to downgrade its growth figures for the country.

Recession is a real possibility. The UK government needs to to take action on two fronts, a plan B of capital works needs to be embarked on to kick-start our economy and it needs to be thinking of measures to keep our banking system going should the eurozone fall apart and the banking systems go into free fall.

Its not just the Westminster government that needs to respond to the economic crisis but our devolved institution needs to take stock of the consequences for Wales.

It is a fact that in hard economic times Wales is particularly vulnerable. With the lowest level of Gross Value Added, the measure of output and services, of any part of the UK, the economic downturn will hit Wales particularly hard. In the words of the Max Boyce “Duw, times are hard.”

In these turbulent economic times the discussions taking place in Wales over next year’s budget becomes critical. This is not a time for the parties to be scoring political points but a time for government and opposition parties to get together to promote a budget that will mitigate to some degree the pain that many are experiencing or are about to experience as the economy comes to a full stop.

Yesterday, the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, called for an emergency EU leaders' summit this weekend, arguing the meeting should not end until an agreement is reached.

Equally in Wales Carwyn Jones should convene a meeting of the other party leaders and sit down and agree a programme for the Welsh economy and that should be the priority for next year’s budget. Now is the time for confident action by our politicians.

Political pictures

2011-11-10T16:55:00.000Z

“While I understand BBC management here in Wales are operating within tough financial constraints, the information I have heard about the proposed cuts to political programming and how that will affect coverage of events that take place in Wales’ principal democratic institution are of particular concern. So I ask this question here today, will Welsh democracy be inevitably damaged if, as appears to be the case, programming dedicated to the coverage of the work we do here, in the building, is scrapped and not directly replaced. It’s a question I propose to take up with the BBC Trust.” So said Rosemary Butler, Presiding Officer of the National Assembly to BBC Wales/Cymru management.

She was raising the issue of lack of political coverage in Wales generally and in particular the latest cuts that the BBC are proposing under the Delivering Quality First initiative. Cuts are going to happen that’s for sure. But the Presiding Officer raises a very important issue the nature of the reporting of the Assembly.

Now political programmes are not top of most peoples viewing musts. But in a democracy the need for information is important and politicians need to be held to account.

Now devolution has passed considerable powers down to Wales.

Education, Health, planning, Housing, Agriculture and many other areas are now with the Assembly. In these areas the Westminster government is irrelevant. Yet, the coverage of Westminster by our broadcasting organisations continues as if nothing much has changed.

The main focus of news broadcasting is centred on the Palace of Westminster. Rarely is there an item from one of the devolved administrations.

And what’s more the specialized political programmes are also Westminster centric. Rarely is there a politician featured that is not from the UK parliament.

OK, there are a lot more people living in England than Wales and broadcasters will try to maximise their audience so UK political programmes understandably will concentrate on English issues and English politicians. But where does that leave Wales?

It leaves a big information hole. A gap that needs filling not by cutting back the provision but expanding it.

More political programmes need to be made and transmitted in Wales if our democracy is to grow. Now is the time to deliver quality not by cutting back on political programming but by growing it.

Resignation talk

2011-11-09T11:48:00.004Z

What has Teresa May and a little bit of Dorset got in common? It could be a start of a joke. The reply, nothing. But it most certainly should.

For it was a bit of agricultural land at Crichel Down in Dorset that serves as a precedent for “ministerial responsibility.”

The story starts with the requisitioning of land by compulsory purchase for the RAF to practice their bombing techniques on the eve of the Second World War.

Churchill made a promise in the House of Commons that the land would be returned to the family when the war was over.

But as is the way with governments the promise was not honoured and the land was passed from the Ministry of Defence to the Ministry of Agriculture who leased the land out and increased the cost of the land way beyond the reach of the original owners.

The owners campaigned against the Ministry and eventually won a public inquiry under Oliver Franks.

The Franks Report pulled no punches and its verdict was that there was a catalogue of ineptitude and maladministration by the civil servants in Ministry of Agriculture.

So nothing new there, I hear you say. But what was different was that the then hapless Minister of Agriculture, Sir Thomas Dugdale, took the rap and resigned.

It was generally acknowledged at the time it was the civil servants that had cocked things up and not the Minister. Despite this the Minister was the one to go, setting up a precedent on ministerial responsibility.

Now our dear, Home Secretary, Theresa May, takes a very different approach to that of Sir Thomas Dugdale. Rather than take the rap, she is very much into the blame culture. Rather than resign she accused the head of the UK Border Agency’s border force, Brodie Clark of relaxing passport checks.

Now the opposite of Crichel Down has occurred the civil servant has gone and the Minister holds on to her job.

But Mr. Brodie ain’t going quietly. He accuses May of making him a political scapegoat and consequently is to lodge a claim for constructive dismissal.

Now whilst Mr Cameron seems to be sticking by his Home Secretary at the moment it is clear that young Teresa is seriously damaged by the debacle and she might yet be forced out.

Oh, that precedent set in rural Dorset might yet come back to haunt the MP for Maidenhead.

House those within the border

2011-11-08T17:19:00.000Z

How many are crossing our borders and using our services? Not a question that Terresa May can answer with any degree of certainty. But does the Welsh government know the numbers settling in Wales?

The cap put on Housing Benefit Payments has resulted in many of those living in the towns and cities of southeast England finding that they can no longer afford to live in those areas. They face the choice of becoming homeless or moving to areas such as Wales where housing costs are lower.

Such migration can put a strain on resources in those areas that people move into. But the difficulty that local government face, for it is they that carry most of the burden, is that there can be no forward planning to know who and how many will seek to settle in their areas.

Migration in large numbers can cause serious problems to the host areas. It puts a strain on schools, health provisions and other services. But, perhaps, the greatest strain is put on both local authorities and housing associations that need to provide the homes.

The need to make allocations to those in greatest housing need often conflicts with a policy of prioritizing housing for local people.

The inability of many to gain a mortgage either due to their low wages or a lack of a deposit has put an even greater pressure on the limited social housing stock. It also has lead to House sales in England and Wales plummeting. Between July 2010 and July 2011 the Land Registry produced figures that showed an 11 per cent drop in the sale of houses.

This shortage is pushing many into the private rented sector, which has seen a dramatic increase in that sectors rent with the consequence that many who have lived in private rented sector are being pushed out because they can’t afford the rents. Indeed a new phenomenon is emerging of people in work filling homeless hostels.

Recent analysis of house sales showed that while there had been an increase in more affluent areas, sales had dropped in poorer postcodes.

All the facts point to a need for an increase in the supply of social housing. This sector needs to see a dramatic increase in its capital funding. Next year’s budget needs to acknowledge this and concentrate far more resources on the sector.

Houses need to be built not only to meet housing needs, but also to stimulate growth in the economy. Now is the time to grow rather than cut the housing budget.