Voting Methods

Labour have gone back to their default position on voting methods. They’ve never,  since the demise of  J Keir Hardy, been known as enthusiasts of PR.  They’ve always wanted a first past the post system for the Assembly elections, with each constituency electing  two members and the winners taking all. 

Why? It enabled them to advance women into elected office without upsetting the misogynists, who thought that Welsh politics should be an all male affair, the women could do the tea at branch meetings. "They also serve that stand and stir a brew" was their attitude.

When Mr Blair decided to hold a referendum on devolution the cozy little deal that Welsh Labour was cooking up of a two member constituency went out of the window. 

The new situation required Labour to reach out to other parties if the referendum was to be won. The response of the other parties would have been to blow a big raspberry if they were asked to campaign for a Glamorgan County Council on stilts. 

So the new reality meant that Labour had to put a peg on their collective noses and reluctantly opt for PR. 


In order, to advance women the party had to find another way. It opted for  twinning  constituencies. Allowing an equal number of men and women to be chosen as candidates. 
It was never popular amongst the rank and file and was dropped as soon as Anita Gale, the then general secretary of the party, was kicked up to the House of Lords. But that, as they say, is another story.

But now we can welcome back our old friend Gerry Mandering, he's active again in the ranks.  Why? Well, Labour have seen the way to revert back to their old ways.  

Yes, an opportunity is about to arise that could give them what they've always wanted, no PR. The chance has come about because the Westminster government has decided to reduce Welsh MPs from forty to thirty. 

Well, what’s that got to do with the Assembly  you may ask? Well, nothing really, except that politicians have decided that the poor voter would be confused if he/she had to vote in constituencies with different boundaries. They clearly have a very low opinion of the voter.

So the Laurel and Hardy of Welsh politics, the Welsh Labour First Minister Carwyn Jones and Shadow Secretary of State Peter Hain on Saturday issued a clear message to the UK Government – “You have no mandate to change the current electoral system in Wales.” 

Cynically knowing  that change is in the air, not least because they also want the same boundaries for the two elections. 

They don’t want change so they say, but if there is change “they want an outcome that best serves Wales.” 


Fair enough, who can disagree with wanting the best for Wales. 


The best for Wales, just happens to be the best for Labour. According to the pair, “a 60 member Assembly, comprising 30, two member seats.”  Labour’s original proposals, so no shocks there.

“Welsh Labour is united behind a common goal of securing a voting system that best serves the people of Wales.” You bet they are.

So there it is, a system of first past the post, which just by chance gives Labour a massive majority and leaves very few opposition members to scrutinise them, “best serves Wales.”

Hmm, unlikely.  It wouldn’t even be good for Labour. Peter Hain could be excused for thinking Westminster, and applying it to Wales, but Carwyn Jones has no such excuse.

Let’s be clear, there is a difference in scale between representation in Westminster and representation to the Assembly. A party could sweep into power in Westminster and have a very large majority but there would still be enough members elected to provide an effective opposition. That is the nature of the beast.

Not so in Wales. The proposals would reduce the opposition in the Assembly to an ineffective rump. Hardly good for democracy, and certainly does not serve Wales’s interest.

It is unlikely, even under the existing election system, that Labour will not be in power in Wales. They’ve been in power since 1999 and this situation is unlikely to change in the near future, despite the best efforts of  opposition parties. 

To be in power for ever and a day, without any real opposition, would not serve the people of Wales well. 

Welsh politics would be akin to that of the old Soviet empire - a one party state with cronyism as its guiding principle.

What’s to be done, then? Mrs Gillan should take up Labour’s argument. If the argument is,   “there is no mandate for change,” why should Westminster attempt to change things. 

Let her devolve the decision making to the Assembly. Give the National Assembly the powers to decide on their own election methods. The only caveat should be that any change would require a two thirds majority in the Assembly.  

Carwyn Jones couldn't object, after all it is a further transfer of powers to Wales. 

And just maybe, trying to reach a consensus  with other political parties might “really best serve the people of Wales.” Who knows they might agree to the proposals recommended by the Labour Lord Richard for an eighty seat Assembly elected by the single transferrable vote. Now that would be good for democracy in Wales.

It could be for richer

With the economy in free fall, the stock exchange up and down like an yo-yo, these racing tips might be a safer place for your cash.  Mind you horses can fall sometimes, but surely not our tips.

Again we’re following Channel 4 racing as S4C clearly believes that Welsh speakers won’t part with their cash and wouldn’t have an interest in the sport of kings. Although it’s never as good as being there but the feed back from regular readers of the Saturday blog is that it’s fun. 

Last weekend we did particularly well,  let’s hope we’re on a bit of a run so here goes. Remember the golden rule each way on odds above 7/1.

Cheltenham

1:55 Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y

Its either Hennessy or Balthazar King who has been below par recently but this could be the start of better things

Lingfield

2:15 Blue Square Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f

Hunters Light[1st] will take some beating Suits me [3rd] might just do it

Cheltenham 

2:35 Paddy power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 2m4f110y

Quantativeeasing [2nd] would be a good each way bet but Mon Parrain is now been trained by Paul Nichols who has never won this race so this could be his day.

Lingfield 

2:50 Blue Square Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f

Bajan Tryst  is the one for me but Secret Asset will get those who play it safe.

Cheltenham 

3:10 Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y

Oscargo [3rd] did well in Chepstow and seem to show more to offer but a good each way bet with big odds is Got Attitude

Wetherby

3:25 totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y

Rebel Dancer[4th]  or European Dream

Cheltenham 

3:40 Ultima Business Solutions Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m110y

Cape Dutch [2nd] will certainly catch the eye but for me its Kayaan


Monitor how well or badly the tips performed with the results in italics

Money, money, money

The European economic recovery witnessed this last year has hit the buffers. Yesterday the troubles over debt caused the EU to slash their forecast for eurozone growth down from 1.8% to just 0.5%. Many economists would regard that figure as optimistic.

With Europe being the area that accounts for about 40% of the UK’s exports this forecast is  bad news indeed. The whole of continent could face recession next year. Certainly, the Office for Budget responsibility is almost certain to downgrade its growth figures for the country.

Recession is a real possibility. The UK government needs to to take action on two fronts, a plan B of capital works needs to be embarked on to kick-start our economy and it needs to be thinking of measures to keep our banking system going should the eurozone fall apart and the banking systems go into free fall.

Its not just the Westminster government that needs to respond to the economic crisis but our devolved institution needs to take stock of the consequences for Wales.

It is a fact that in hard economic times Wales is particularly vulnerable. With the lowest level of Gross Value Added, the measure of output and services, of any part of the UK, the economic downturn will hit Wales particularly hard. In the words of the Max Boyce  “Duw, times are hard.”

In these turbulent economic times the discussions taking place in Wales over next year’s budget becomes critical. This is not a time for the parties to be scoring political points but a time for government and opposition parties to get together to promote a budget that will mitigate to some degree the pain that many are experiencing or are about to experience as the economy comes to a full stop.

Yesterday, the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, called for an emergency EU leaders' summit this weekend, arguing the meeting should not end until an agreement is reached.

Equally in Wales Carwyn Jones should convene a meeting of the other party leaders and sit down and agree a programme for the Welsh economy and that should be the priority for next year’s budget. Now is the time for confident action by our politicians.

Political pictures

“While I understand BBC management here in Wales are operating within tough financial constraints, the information I have heard about the proposed cuts to political programming and how that will affect coverage of events that take place in Wales’ principal democratic institution are of particular concern. So I ask this question here today, will Welsh democracy be inevitably damaged if, as appears to be the case, programming dedicated to the coverage of the work we do here, in the building, is scrapped and not directly replaced. It’s a question I propose to take up with the BBC Trust.” So said Rosemary Butler, Presiding Officer of the National Assembly to BBC Wales/Cymru management.

She was raising the issue of lack of political coverage in Wales generally and in particular the latest cuts that the BBC are proposing under the Delivering Quality First initiative. Cuts are going to happen that’s for sure. But the Presiding Officer raises a very important issue the nature of the reporting of the Assembly.

Now political programmes are not top of most peoples viewing musts. But in a democracy the need for information is important and politicians need to be held to account.

Now devolution has passed considerable powers down to Wales.

Education, Health, planning, Housing, Agriculture and many other areas are now with the Assembly. In these areas the Westminster government is irrelevant. Yet, the coverage of Westminster by our broadcasting organisations continues as if nothing much has changed.

The main focus of news broadcasting is centred on the Palace of Westminster. Rarely is there an item from one of the devolved administrations.

And what’s more the specialized political programmes are also Westminster centric. Rarely is there a politician featured that is not from the UK parliament.

OK, there are a lot more people living in England than Wales and broadcasters will try to maximise their audience so UK political programmes understandably will concentrate on English issues and English politicians. But where does that leave Wales?

It leaves a big information hole. A gap that needs filling not by cutting back the provision but expanding it.

More political programmes need to be made and transmitted in Wales if our democracy is to grow. Now is the time to deliver quality not by cutting back on political programming but by growing it.

Resignation talk

What has Teresa May and a little bit of Dorset got in common? It could be a start of a joke. The reply, nothing.  But it most certainly should.

For it was a bit of agricultural land at Crichel Down in Dorset that serves as a precedent for “ministerial responsibility.”

The story starts with the requisitioning of  land by compulsory purchase for the RAF to practice their bombing techniques on the eve of the Second World War. 

Churchill made a promise in the House of Commons that the land would be returned to the family when the war was over. 

But as is the way with governments the promise was not honoured and the land was passed from the Ministry of Defence to the Ministry of Agriculture who leased the land out and increased the cost of the land way beyond the reach of the original owners.

The owners campaigned against the Ministry and eventually won a public inquiry under Oliver Franks. 

The Franks Report pulled no punches and its verdict was that there was a catalogue of ineptitude and maladministration by the civil servants in Ministry of Agriculture.

So nothing new there, I hear you say. But what was different was that the then hapless Minister of Agriculture, Sir Thomas Dugdale, took the rap and resigned.

It was generally acknowledged at the time it was the civil servants that had cocked things up and not the Minister. Despite this the Minister was the one to go, setting up a precedent on ministerial responsibility.

Now our dear, Home Secretary, Theresa May, takes a very different approach to that of Sir Thomas Dugdale. Rather than take the rap, she is very much into the blame culture. Rather than resign she accused the head of the UK Border Agency’s border force, Brodie Clark of relaxing passport checks.

Now the opposite of Crichel Down has occurred the civil servant has gone and the Minister holds on to her job.

But Mr. Brodie ain’t going quietly.  He accuses May of making him a political scapegoat and consequently is to lodge a claim for constructive dismissal.

Now whilst Mr Cameron seems to be sticking by his Home Secretary at the moment it is clear that young Teresa is seriously damaged by the debacle and she might yet be forced out.

Oh, that precedent set in rural Dorset might yet come back to haunt the MP for Maidenhead.

House those within the border

How many are crossing our borders and using our services? Not a question that Terresa May can answer with any degree of certainty. But does the Welsh government know the numbers settling in Wales?

The cap put on Housing Benefit Payments has resulted in many of those living in the towns and cities of southeast England finding that they can no longer afford to live in those areas. They face the choice of becoming homeless or moving to areas such as Wales where housing costs are lower.

Such migration can put a strain on resources in those areas that people move into.  But the difficulty that local government face, for it is they that carry most of the burden, is that there can be no forward planning to know who and how many will seek to settle in their areas.

Migration in large numbers can cause serious problems to the host areas. It puts a strain on schools, health provisions and other services. But, perhaps, the greatest strain is put on both local authorities and housing associations that need to provide the homes.

The need to make allocations to those in greatest housing need often conflicts with a policy of prioritizing housing for local people. 

The inability of many to gain a mortgage either due to their low wages or a lack of a deposit has put an even greater pressure on the limited social housing stock. It also has lead to House sales in England and Wales plummeting. Between July 2010 and July 2011 the Land Registry produced figures that showed an 11 per cent drop in the sale of houses.

This shortage is pushing many into the private rented sector, which has seen a dramatic increase in that sectors rent with the consequence that many who have lived in private rented sector are being pushed out because they can’t afford the rents. Indeed a new phenomenon is emerging of people in work filling homeless hostels.

Recent analysis of house sales showed that while there had been an increase in more affluent areas, sales had dropped in poorer postcodes.

All the facts point to a need for an increase in the supply of social housing. This sector needs to see a dramatic increase in its capital funding. Next year’s budget needs to acknowledge this and concentrate far more resources on the sector.

Houses need to be built not only to meet housing needs, but also to stimulate growth in the economy. Now is the time to grow rather than cut the housing budget.

All the racing on the box

Last Saturday we started to follow the races on terrestrial television and it proved quite popular. The popularity was no doubt due to tipping one winner and four 2nd places. Those that did each way bets had a modest return on the day. 

So this week I’ll be doing the same as for domestic reasons I will confined to the house and so an afternoon’s telly racing will be my lot, before venturing down to Caerffili Castle for a quite excellent fireworks display. 

Hopefully there will be enough returns from the afternoon to pay for a hotdog or two, after all it is the UK sausage week.

Remember each way bets on all the horses with odds above 7/1 and with the large cards there should be plenty of these.

Doncaster

2:00 Betfred the Bonus King Handicap

Axiam is a good alternative to Entitled but the big odds of Perfect Silence is going to be my each way bet.

Down Royal (Ireland)

2:20 JNwine.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) 3m

Sizing Europe or Quito De La rouque [1st]

Doncaster

2:35 Betfred Goals Galore E B F “Sir Percy” Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) C/1 1mile 2f60yd

The favourite and the one to beat is Principal Role [2nd] but Ceilidh House [3rd] did me proud last year so loyalty and the prospect of rain which it likes makes it my choice.

Wincanton

2:45  totescoop6 Elite Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Aine’s Delight [2nd] will be regarded as having no hope or Granouet is so favoured that the odds are so low

Doncaster

3:10 Betfred November Handicap C12 1mile4fr

Pekan Star or Willing Foe [2nd] who did well a fortnight ago

Wincanton

3:20 Badger Ales Trophy (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-150) 3m1furlong110yds

Checkerboard or the Minack [1st]  but don’t disregard last year’s winner Meanus Dandy [2nd]

Doncaster

3:40 Betfred 1350 Shops Nationwide Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

Sirius Prospect [1st] or  Our Jonathan  for a complete outsider try  Lady Paris

The results are in italic and as can be seen a very satisfying 
afternoon.