Friday, 15 April 2011

Latest Poll results

 The latest ITVWales/YouGov polls show Labour moving towards that elusive majority. In the last fortnight they have gained two points. 
Their campaign of portraying themselves as a defence against the Westminster coalition government seems to be hitting the chord with the electorate.

The Conservative vote seems to be holding steady on or about the mark they got in the last Assembly elections and on this poll look like overtaking Plaid Cymru as the second largest party in the Assembly.
Despite a professional launch and an aspirational manifesto Plaid Cymru have not moved in the polls since the campaign has got underway and must be under pressure to look closely at their campaign in the remaining fortnight.
Again the Liberal Democrats are languishing with single figures and are facing significant losses in May. Being the junior party to the Conservative government in Westminster is pushing them to the fringes here in Wales.

There does have to be a serious word of caution about the polls, they are a sample taken over the whole of Wales and should not be taken as a guide to what might happen in individual constituencies. 

In marginal seats the battle will be intense between the various competing parties and these local campaigns may buck the trends shown in the national polls. The constituency profiles may more accurately reflect what is happening in the marginals.

Poll details below:

YouGov poll figures in detail, compared with the 2007 result and with the last three polls. The sample was 1078, the fieldwork 12th to 14th April.  

                      May 2007  Jan 2011   4-8 March '11    28-30 March '11  12-14 April '11

Labour            32%          45%            48%               47%                   49%

Conservative   22%          21%            20%               21%                   20%

Plaid Cymru    22%           21%           19%               17%                   17%

Lib Dem         15%             7%             7%                 8%                    8%

Others             8%             6%             7%                 6%                    6%

Regional vote

Labour           30%           41%            45%                45%                   44%   

Conservative  22%           20%            20%                20%                   20%

Plaid Cymru   21%            21%           18%                16%                   18%

Lib Dem        12%              8%             5%                  8%                    8%

UKIP              4%              4%             5%                  6%                    4%

Green             4%              2%             4%                  2%                    2%

Others            8%              4%             2%                  2%                    4% 

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