Thursday, 12 May 2011

Regional List: explained



Many have asked me to explain how the regional top up works for the National Assembly. So below. I've tried to explain it. 
This will be my last blog for  a week or so, as I'm off on holidays!


Regions and Voting
There are five regions, each electing four regional AMs. This gives an additional 20 regional seats to top the 40 elected on the first past the post system based on constituencies.
A quota system invented by Belgian mathematician and lawyer Victor d'Hondt (1841 - 1901) is used for deciding the 20 regional seats.  Thus proving that there is more to Belgium than beer, chocolates and Tin Tin. 
Now back to the sums. It's all worked out on the total number of regional votes received by a party or independent candidate. These are then divided by the number of constituency seats already gained in the region +1. No, this not bad typing on my part the plus 1 is an essential part of the calculation.
Should you be a 'billy no mates' party with no constituency seats the number of votes you received in the whole of the region is divided by one. If the party has secured one constituency seat in that region then its number of votes is divided by two, if it has two seats in that region it is divided by three, and so on. Simple, ain't it. If you don't understand it now then the Welsh standards of numeracy is lower than previously thought.


So, the rule is, the more constituency seats a political party wins, the harder it is to gain any additional seats through the regional list system. Now the overall allocation of seats is more proportional to the number of votes cast.
You can check it all - below.


This is how the system operated for the 2011 Assembly elections. Whether it is the best system is a question for another day, but Lord Richards thought not. 


When asked to make a recommendation he suggested a system of Single Transferable Vote based on multi-member seats based on local authority boundaries. So that all  Assembly Members would then be chosen in the same way.
North Wales Regional List
Labour
5 Const. AMs  +1
Conservative
2 Const. AMs
+1
Plaid Cymru
2 Const. AMs +1
Lib.Democrat
0 Const. AMs
+1
UKIP
0 Const. AMs +1

62,677/6

52,201/3

41,701/3

11,507/1

9,601/1
10,446
17,400  AM
13,900
11,507
9,601
10,466
13,050
13,900  AM
11,507
9,601
10,466
13,050  AM
10,425
11,507
9,601
10,466
10,440
10,425
11,507 AM
9,601





Mark Isherwood
Conservative
Antoinette Sandbach
Conservative
Llyr Huws Gruffydd
Plaid Cymru
Aled Roberts
Liberal Democrat
Party
Votes
Percentage
Conservative
52,201
26.8
Plaid Cymru
41,701
21.4
Liberal Democrat
11,507
5.9
Labour
62,677
32.2
UKIP
9,608
4.9
Socialist Labour Party
4,895
2.5
BNP
4,785
2.5
Green
4,406
2.3
Welsh Christian Party
1,401
0.7
Independent - Weyman
1,094
0.6
Communist Party of Britain
523
0.3

South Wales West Regional List
Labour
7 Const. AMs  +1
Conservative
0 Const. AMs
+1
Plaid Cymru
0 Const. AMs +1
Lib.Democrat
0 Const. AMs
+1
UKIP
0 Const. AMs +1

71,766/8

27,457/1

21,258/1

10,683/1

6619/1
8,970
27,457  AM
21,258
10,683
6619
8,970
13,728
21,258 AM
10,683
6619
8,970
13,728 AM
10,629
10,683
6619
8,970
  9,152
10,629
10,683 AM
6619

















Suzy Davies
Conservative
Byron Davies
Conservative
Bethan Jenkins
Plaid Cymru
Peter Black
Liberal Democrat

Party
Votes
Percentage
Conservative
27,457
17.8
Plaid Cymru
21,258
13.8
Liberal Democrat
10,683
6.9
Labour
71,766
46.9
UKIP
6,619
4.3
Socialist Labour Party
5,057
3.3
BNP
4,714
3.1
Green
3,952
2.6
Welsh Christian Party
1,602
1.0
Trade Unionist & Socialist against cuts
809
0.5
Communist Party of Britain
464
0.3

South Wales East Regional List
Labour
7 Const. AMs  +1
Conservative
1 Const. AMs
+1
Plaid Cymru
0 Const. AMs +1
Lib.Democrat
0 Const. AMs
+1
UKIP
0 Const. AMs +1

82,699/8

35,459/2

21,850/1

10,798/1

9,526/1
8,970
17,729 
21,258  AM
10,798
9,526
8,970
17,729  AM
10,925
10,798
9,526
8,970
11,819  AM
10,925
10,798
9,526
8,970
  8,864
10,925  AM
10,798
9,526

















William Graham
Conservative
Antoinette Sandbach
Conservative
Jocelyn Davies
Plaid Cymru
Lindsay Whittle
Plaid Cymru


Party
Votes
Percentage
Conservative
35,459
19.6
Plaid Cymru
21,850
12.1
Labour
82,699
45.7
Liberal Democrat
10,798
6
UKIP
9,526
5.3
BNP
6,485
3.6
Green
4,857
2.7
Socialist Labour Party
4,427
2.4
Welsh Christian Party
1,904
1.3
English Democrats
1,904
1.1
Communist Party of Britain
578
0.3
South Wales Central Regional List
Labour
8 Const. AMs  +1
Conservative
0 Const. AMs
+1
Plaid Cymru
0 Const. AMs +1
Lib.Democrat
0 Const. AMs
+1
Green
0 Const. AMs +1

22,013/9

9.780/1

6,169/1

4,468/1

2,583/1
2,445
9.780    AM
6,169
4,468
2,583
2,445
4,890 
6,169    AM
4,468
2,583
2,445
4,890  AM
3,084
4,468
2,583
2,445
3,260
3,084
4,468  AM
2,583

















Andrew RT Davies
Conservative
David Melding
Conservative
Leanne Wood
Plaid Cymru
John Dixon
Liberal Democrat


Party
Votes
Percentage
Labour
22,013
43.1
Conservative
9,780
19.2
Plaid Cymru
6,169
12.1
Liberal Democrat
4,468
 8.8
Green
2,583
 5.1
UKIP
2,465
 4.8
Socialist Labour Party
1,230
 2.4
BNP
1,098
 2.2
Communist Party of Britain
   522
 1.0
Monster Raving Loony Party
   357
 0.7
Trade Unionist & Socialist against cuts
   219
 0.4
Welsh Christian Party
  156
 0.3
Mid and West Wales Regional List
Labour
1 Const. AMs  +1
Conservative
3 Const. AMs
+1
Plaid Cymru
3 Const. AMs +1
Lib.Democrat
1 Const. AMs
+1
UKIP
0 Const. AMs +1

47,348/2

52,905/4

56,384/4

26,847/2

9,711/1
23,674  AM
13,226
14,096
13,423
9,711
15,782  AM
13,226
14,096
13,423
9,711
11,837
13,226
14,096   AM
13,423
9,711
11,837
13,226
11,276
13,423 AM
9,711





Elizabeth Joyce Watson
Labour
Rebecca Mary Evans
Labour
Simon Thomas
Plaid Cymru
William Powell
Liberal Democrat



Party
Votes
Percentage
Labour
47,348
22.5
Plaid Cymru
56,384
26.7
Liberal Democrat
26,847
12.7
Conservative
52,905
25.1
UKIP
 9,711
 4.6
Green
8,660
 4.1
Socialist Labour Party
3,951
 1.9
BNP
2,821
 1.3
Communist Party of Britain
1,630
 0.8
Welsh Christian Party
  595
 0.3






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