Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Musical chairs

based on OS mapping and copyright
There is only one thing on you're MPs mind today, his job. Why because the number of Welsh seats in Parliament is being reduced from forty to thirty. And what's worse many of them will have to fight colleagues for the right to represent the party in the new seat.
The map above shows the biggest change in election boundaries since the end of the second world war. New constituency names will emerge such as the Dee Estuary, North Wales Coast,and Glyndwr and North Powys to name but a few. And even those that retain their original names are very different entities to the existing ones. No seat remains the same. 
If you object you have 12 weeks to make your views known to the Boundary Commission.
And why the change? Well, Mr Cameron in response to the universal disapproval over MPs expenditure decided that to curry favour with voters he would reduce the number of MPs from 650 to 600 and that every constituency would be broadly of the same size.  Resulting in every constituency being between 72,810 to 80,473 voters. All this was passed in "The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011". 
Now not many existing Welsh seats were within the new required range, hence the reduction of seats in Wales from 40 to 30 and the massive shake up now being proposed. 
So where does that leave the parties. Who will win and who will loose? Below is my quick look at the seats.
1 Menai and Ynys Mon. This is likely to be a Labour/Plaid Cymru marginal, with Labour having the edge.
2 Gwynedd. Plaid Cymru
3 Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire Another marginal but this time between Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats with Plaid with the edge.
4 South and West Pembrokeshire. Conservative
5 Caerfyddin. Plaid Cymru
6 Llanelli. Labour
7 Gower and Swansea West. Labour
8 Swansea East. Labour
9 Neath. Labour
10 Aberavon and Ogmore. Labour
11 Bridgend. Labour
12 The Vale of Glamorgan. Conservative
13 Cardiff West. Labour
14 Cardiff Central and Penarth. Labour
15 Cardiff East. Labour
16 Caerphilly and Cardiff North. Conservative/Labour marginal with the Conservatives with a big edge
17 Newport West and Sirhowy Valley. Labour
18 Newport Central. Labour
19 Monmouthshire. Conservative
20 Torfaen. Labour
21 Blaenau Gwent. Labour
22 Heads of the Valleys. Labour
23 Rhondda. Labour
24 Pontypridd. Labour
25 South Powys. Liberal Democrat
26 Glyndwr and North Powys. Becomes the most interesting seat in Wales a four way marginal
27 Wrexham Maelor. Labour
28 Alyn and Deeside. Labour
29 Dee Estuary. Labour
30 North Wales Coast. Conservatives
Labour will almost certainly  have nineteen seats and in a good year could be up to twenty three.They currently have twenty six.
Conservatives are more than likely to have four seats and  another three would be a realistic number for them to target. They have eight seats in the current Parliament
Plaid Cymru will certainly hold two seats but have the edge in another one and who knows in a good year another 2 could be in their grasp. They have 3 at the moment.
Liberal Democrats are almost certainly to hold one seat. They may have a chance in another two. But they have three at the moment. The review has not been kind to them.
But the interesting tussles will be between MPs of the same party. They will have to play the political equivalent of musical chairs to make sure they don't loose out in the cull of seats.  But more of these in future blogs.


  1. Digwydd cytuno gyda phopeth ti'n gweud mynna y 2 sedd arall ti'n sôn am ar ran Plaid Cymru mewn blwyddyn da yw Llanelli a Nedd dwi'n cymryd?

  2. Na, Mon a Cheridigion a posib Glyndwr

  3. Pam mae Gogledd Powys a Glyndwr yn gallu fod yn sedd i plaid galle ti egluro plis Gareth? Pa rhannau o fewn hi ydy plaid cymry?

  4. Mae rhai o’r pentrfi o Gonwy sef Llangernyw, Llansannan a Uwchaled
    yn ardaloedd mae Plaid wedi gael cefnogaeth yn y gorffenol
    hefyd Corwen a Dinbych a rhai o bentrefi Clwyd gwledig yn ardaloedd ble mae na garfen helaeth o Gymru Cymraeg sy’n dir eitha alawol i’r Blaid ac hefyd pentrefi r’yn fath a Dyffryn Ceiriog a Llangollen wledig a Rhos o’r Wrecsam. Wrth gwrs me fedrwn gwneud dadl i’r tri Plaid arall hefyd dyna pam mae’n set hynod diddorol.

  5. beth am gorllewin caerdydd, beth mae cymryd mewn mwy o ardal pontypridd i mewn, ydy hwnan tueddi meddwl fwy o pleidleisiau i lafur ar Dem Rhydd?

  6. Hi,

    I'm puzzled why you think Caerphilly and Cardiff North will have a 'big edge' for the Tories? It seems a safe Labour seat for me at first glance.

  7. what's the betting the old Labour dinosaurs will survive the cull while the newer Labour MP's will lose out?

  8. Caerphilly and Cardiff North, a rock solid Labour seat surely?

  9. The Caerphilly seat looses some very traditional Labour voting areas what remains is the Aber Valley (4,510) a strong Plaid /Labour area
    Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen (7,630) traditional Labour, a Plaid seat Morgan Jones (4,909) on the Council
    Penyrheol (8,777) (Plaid/Labour,) St. James (4,153) (Plaid seat on Council but likely Labour for Westminster. and St. Martins (6,335)is held by Plaid Cymru in council elections but there is a very strong Conservative Vote here and, of course the additions are the affleuent areas of Cardiff which is a Conservative held seat in Westminster.
    2. the City and County of Cardiff electoral divisions of Lisvane (2,839),
    Llanishen (12,945), Rhiwbina (9,103) and, Whitchurch and Tongwynlais
    (12,672). So it becomes a marginal but the Conservatives in my opinion have the edge.

  10. Cardiff North has lost Llandaff North and Gabalfa, which were Labour, but also Heath, which is True Blue. It's gained Bedwas, Trethomas, Abertridwr and Senghenydd, where the entire Tory support could comfortably fit into one minibus.

    There is absolutely no way the Tories can hang onto a seat they were likely to lose next time even under the old boundaries.

  11. I'd see Labour winning Caerphilly and Cardiff North to be honest. Now that Labour are in opposition, they'll win back much of the left-leaning protest vote (i.e. Plaid in Caerphilly and the Lib Dems in Cardiff North), thus outweighing the strong Tory vote in the latter and the smaller Tory vote in the former. I agree, though, it's still a marginal.