Monday, 16 April 2012

Poll position

Labour are doing well in the UK polls. Due to a lack of polling in Wales we haven’t a clue whether there is a Leanne Wood bounce since she became the Plaid Cymru leader. I guess we’ll have to wait until 3 May to find if her leadership has helped Plaid Cymru gain seats on Councils.
But back to Labour. The latest national YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has  top line figures  which show Labour 6% ahead of the Conservatives with Labour on 39% Conservatives  33%,and the Liberal Democrats languishing with 10%.  

So all would seem to be well with the comrades, or so you’d think.
But hold on, why are they so nervous. Despite a series of own goals over the budget by the Coalition government Labour managed to loose what should have been a safe seat to George Galloway’s Respect party. 

So whatever the polls say there is an uncertainty in Labour ranks about their ability to turn poll leads into actual leads when it comes to ‘real’ elections. The polls should translate into gains in the council elections. But if they don't, Miliband will be under pressure again.

The nervousness is also manifesting itself in another way. Labour don't want anymore byelections where they might risk losing to a maverick candidate from the left like Galloway.

So, like Baldrick, they've come up with a cunning little plan. No byelections. 

Well, of course, they can't prevent an act of God in the near future. But they think they can stop resignations from their parliamentary ranks.
But the observant amongst you will say, Labour fully intend putting up candidates for Mayoral and Police Commission elections and some Labour MPs have already expressed an interest in standing, so won’t there have to be byelections? 

Yes, of course, that is if MPs like Alun Michael get there way and are chosen to represent their party. 
But will they get there way? That’s in doubt.
All the signs are that Labour high command are twisting the collective arms of these ambitious parliamentarians. Those intending to stand have been told to desist from their ambitions. The order is  ‘stay put in Westminster.’ 

The party says it's  cupboard is bare  and there is no  cash for a series of byelections. Hmmm. 
Now this would be fine and dandy if the MPs decided to have second thoughts and continue to plough the Westminster furrow. 

But if these cussed MPs decide not to heed the “advice” and continue to stand, whats to be done? What shouldn't happen is a Labour fix. There should be a definite no, no, to reverting to the old ways of trying to fix the selection contests. 
These new posts are important. Labour should be ensuring that they put up the very best candidates forward.  They should not be substituting the best with the second rater, simply to ensure that Labour doesn’t have to face the electors in byelections.
If the younger Miliband is not an election winner, now is the time to discover it. 
Labour would be better facing up to the Miliband issue. Rather than again drifting into defeat in a general election with a no hope leader.


  1. I think if Labour do badly in the L.E then they have to get rid of Milliband. He should be destroying the Tories, but he just isn't. They should just cut their losses and 'right we chose the wrong guy'. Otherwise they'll end up like the Tories when they were stuck in the wilderness. If he does well, keep him.

    With LW, if we had a strong media then maybe she would have had a bounce. We haven't, and I'd imagine 80% of the country are unaware who Plaid's leader is. In saying that I'd say 50% don't know who the FM is!. So this isn't really a test for her- apart from the Rhondda maybe. If I were Plaid I would seriously market her over the next few years, make her the face of the party - like the SNP do with Alex. Get people to know her, as I do think she's a vote winner.

    Q: will there be a "Welsh voting intentions poll" before May 3rd?
    Q: for any MP running for the job of Police Commissioner, do they first have to resign as an MP.... or do they only do that if they've won the election for P.Comm?

  2. Here on Anglesey we are quite relieved not to be having local elections. In fact many of us wish never to have them again. Local politics is invariably tainted by matters corrupt. Why persist with such sham accountability?

    Now, what we need is way to stop having for pay for local government, sham or otherwise. This is the next big hurdle. Any ideas?

  3. Yougov had a online poll on Welsh voting intentions a few days ago but there seems to be no results yet.

  4. On question 1 I'm not aware of any published polls before May 3rd in Wales. I know that ITV ain't and the BBC don't.
    question 2 My understanding is that once selected as candidates they would stand down.

    KP Taxation without representation caused problems with our colonies, does Ynys Mon fall into that category?

  5. Very few people will have heard of Leanne Wood by this point. IWJ had a very long time as leader and eventually got a recognition rate that was second after Rhodri Morgan but still pretty low.

  6. Gareth, Sir, there are so few on Anglesey paying taxes of any kind other than VAT, and that tax is well covered because the initial spending money is from a government welfare cheque, the matter of taxation without representation does not apply.

    This is one colony that no-one, not even the Welsh government, wishes to afford. But it remains a most delightful place to live!