Independence, when? In the fullness of time.

Carwyn Jones called for it and now Leanne Wood the Plaid Cymru leader wants it. Pre-Scottish referendum talks on the UK constitution. Her view is that we need it to prevent Wales losing out should Scotland vote itself out of the Union. 

David Cameron shows no inclination to listen to either. He’s not prepared to deal with the issue until after the Scottish vote. His view is that he’ll look at the issue of Scottish powers if there’s a no vote. And presumably if such discussions take place Wales will get a look in as well.

Leanne Wood’s argument is that Wales would lose out in a smaller UK sans Scotland. Echoing a view held not only by Carwyn Jones but also Rhodri Morgan.

Why would that be? Well, the rump House of Commons would be dominated by MPs representing English constituents and these would have little regard for Wales. Would the HM Treasury feel inclined to booster the subsidy it gives to Wales? 
Unlikely. What’s the political advantage to them. 

If the Union with Scotland is severed,  keeping Wales on board at a greater cost to itself is unlikely to be top of their agenda. Once the two largest countries in the Union have gone their separate ways, the English dominated Parliament will pay even less regard to Wales than it does today.

Under Leanne Wood’s leadership a view is emerging that Plaid will not be pushing for a Welsh independence referendum until there’s a dramatic turnabout in Wales’s economy. 

Speaking in Westminster Jonathan Edwards MP said: "We are not in a position to win independence until we have improved the Welsh economy." He latches onto the fact that only 89,000 people in Wales pay the 40% income tax rate  and by Plaid’s own reckoning it will take 10 to 15 years before the gap between the performance of the Welsh and English economies closes.

A view echoed by his predecessor in Parliament, Adam Price. He’s now co-chairing Plaid's economic commission, and said: "It just isn't possible to close that gap in anything less in than 10 to 15 years. It will take at least a decade or a decade and a half to undo the damage done by successive governments."

The implications is that a vote on Welsh independence will not take place until everything is fine and dandy with the economy. It could be a long wait. Few other independence movement have held themselves back with such restraints.

Wales is the poorest country in the UK. It is also poorer than most English regions. Being a member of the Union might have done lots for Wales but riches is not one of them. Hoping that the English coin is going to make things better would seem to be a forlorn hope. And that same English coin deliver the conditions for independence, scarcely credible.

If there is  an argument for independence it should be ‘give it us now and then we’ll sort ourselves out.’ 

Independence on the back of another nations subsidy is not a very winning campaign slogan, me thinks.