Full Assembly Results from Aberavon to Cardiff Central

ABERAVON: Part of South Wales West Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Rees,David	Labour	12,104	64.11%
Nicholas-Jones, Paul	Plaid Cymru	2,793	14.79%
Morgan, Tamojen	Conservative	2,704	14.32%
Clarke, Helen Ceri	Liberal Democrat	1,278	6.77%

Turnout: 18,879 (37.2%)

Labour hold

9,311 majority

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Gibbons, Brian	Labour	10,129	49.3
Purcell, Linet	Plaid Cymru	3,558	17.3
Tutton, Andrew	NPTR	2,561	12.5
Meyland-Smith, Daisy	Conservative	1,990	9.7
Waller, Claire	Liberal Democrat	1,450	7.1
Beany, Captain	NMBP	840	4.1

Electorate: 51,536 Turnout 39.8%

ABERCONWY: Part of the North Wales Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Finch-Saunders,Janet	Conservative	6,888	33.95%
Hughes,Iwan	Plaid Cymru	5,321	26.23%
Williams, Eifion	Labour	5,206	25.66%
Priestley, Mike	Liberal Democrat	2,873	14.16%

Turnout: 20,288 (45.11%)

Conservative gain from Plaid Cymru

1,567 majority

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Jones, Gareth	Plaid Cymru	7,983	38.6
Jones-Evans, Dylan	Conservative	6,290	30.4
Jones, Denise Idris	Labour	4,508	21.8
Hughes, Euron	Liberal Democrat	1,918	9.3

Electorate: 44,143 Turnout: 46.9%

ALYN AND DEESIDE: Part of the North Wales Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Sargeant, Carl	Labour	11,978	52.61%
Bell, John	Conservative	6,397	28.10%
Williams, Pete	Liberal Democrat	1,725	25.66%
Brennan, Shane	Plaid Cymru	1,710	7.51%
Whitby, Michael	BNP	959	4.21%

Turnout: 22,288 (36.87%)

Labour hold

5,581 majority

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Sargeant, Carl	Labour	8,196	38.9
Gallagher, Will	Conservative	4,834	22.9
Hutchinson, Dennis	Independent	3,241	15.4
Brighton, Paul	Liberal Democrat	2,091	9.9
Passe, Dafydd	Plaid Cymru	1,398	6.6
Crawford, William	UKIP	1,335	6.3

Electorate: 59,355 Turnout: 35.5%

ARFON: Part of the North Wales Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Jones, Alun Ffred	Plaid Cymry	10,024	56.75%
Rees, Christina	Labour	5,321	26.23%
Davies, Aled	Conservative	2,209	12.51%
Jones, Rhys	Liberal Democrat	801	4.53%

Turnout: 17,664 (42.99%)

Plaid Cymru hold

5,394 majority

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Jones, Alun Ffred	Plaid Cymru	10,260	52.4
Eaglestone, Martin	Labour	5,242	26.8
Frobisher, Gerry	Conservative	1,858	9.5
Owain, Mel Ab	Liberal Democrat	1,424	7.3
Williams, Elwyn	UKIP	789	4.0

Electorate: 39,891 Turnout: 49.1%

BLAENAU GWENT: Part of the South Wales East Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Davies, Alun	Labour	12,926	52.61%
Sullivan, Jayne	Independent	3,806	18.83%
Jones, Darren	Plaid Cymru	1,098	5.43%
Hayward, Bob	Conservative	1,066	5.27%
Whitby, Michael Blakebrough, Martin	BNP Liberal Democrat	948      367	4.69%   1.82%

Turnout: 20,211 (37.97%)

Labour gain from Independent

9,120 majority

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Law, Trish	Independent	12,722	54.1
Bender, Keren	Labour	7,365	31.3
Lewis, Gareth	Liberal Democrats	1,351	5.7
Ashgar, Natasha	Plaid Cymru	1,129	4.8
Hayward, Bob	Conservative	951	4.0

Electorate: 52,818 Turnout: 44.5%
BRECON & RADNOR: Part of the Wales Mid and West Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Williams, Kirsty	Liberal Democrat	12,201	52.94%
Davies, Chris	Conservative	9,444	33.31%
Lloyd, Christopher	Labour	4,797	16.92%
Price, Gary	Plaid Cymru	1,906	6.72%

Turnout: 28,348 (52.94%)

Liberal Democrat hold

2,757 majority

2007 Assembly election results

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Williams, Kirsty	Liberal Democrat	15,006	52.2
Davies, Suzy	Conservative	9,652	33.6
Stone, Neil	Labour	2,514	8.7
Lloyd, Arwel	Plaid Cymru	1,576	5.5

Electorate 55,482 Turnout: 51.8%

BRIDGEND: Part of South Wales West Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Jones, Carwyn	Labour	13,499	56.16%
Williams, Alex	Conservative	6,724	27.98%
Thomas, Tim	Plaid Cymru	2,076	8.64%
Davies, Briony	Liberal Democrat	1,736	7.22%

Turnout: 24,035 (40.67%)

Labour hold

6,775 majority

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Jones, Carwyn	Labour	9,889	40.3
Greenow, Emma	Conservative	7,333	29.9
Warren, Paul	Liberal Democrat	3,730	15.2
Thomas, Nick	Plaid Cymru	3,600	14.7

Electorate: 59,553 Turnout 41.2%

CAERFFILI: Part of the South Wales East Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Cuthbert, Jeff	Labour	12,521	48.97%
Davies, Ron	Plaid Cymru	7,597	29.71%
Meredith, Owen	Conservative	3,368	13.17%
David,Kay	Liberal Democrat	1,062	4.15%
King, Anthony	BNP	1,022	4.00%

Turnout: 25,570 (41.21%)

Labour hold

4,924 majority

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Cuthbert, Jeff	Labour	9,026	34.6
Whittle, Lindsay	Plaid Cymru	6,739	25.8
Davies, Ron	Independent	5,805	22.2
Foley, Richard	Conservative	2,954	11.3
Price, Huw	Liberal Democrat	1,596	6.1

Electorate: 61,937 Turnout: 42.2%

CARDIFF CENTRAL: Part of the South Wales Central Region

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Rathbone, Jenny	Labour	8,954	37.90%
Howells, Nigel	Liberal Democrat	8,916	37.73%
Smith, Matt	Conservative	3,559	15.06%
Williams, Chris	Plaid Cymru	1,690	7.15%
Khan, Mathab	Independent	509	2.15%

Turnout: 23,628 (36.72%)

Labour gain from Liberal Democrat

38 majority

2007 Assembly election results

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Randerson, Jenny	Liberal Democrat	11,462	51.2
Lent, Sue	Labour	4,897	21.9
Murphy, Andrew	Conservative	3,137	14
Whitfield,	Plaid Cymru	3,758	11.2
Mahoney, Kevin	UKIP	2,310	6.9

Electorate 62,114 Turnout: 36.1%

Last poll before election day

Labour move back up in the last ITVWales/YouGov poll on the eve of the Assembly election. This would push them to overall majority territory.

The Conservatives seem to have lost ground and are one point down in both the constituency and regional vote.

Plaid Cymru look as if their support remains static with 18 per cent in both the constituency and the list.

The Liberal Democrats move up 1 percentage point.

According to ITV’s Denis Balsom this will give Labour 31 seats, Conservatives 13 seats. Plaid Cymru 11 seats and the Liberal Democrats 5.

The smaller parties such as UKIP and Greens again fail to make a breakthrough and gain a seat in the Assembly.

If the poll is right in its predictions then Carwyn Jones will have his majority and will rule without having to depend on another party. Of course, this puts the requirement for real discipline within the Labour group. The government will have to be more attentive to its own backbenchers.

Plaid Cymru, if they are relegated to the third party in the Assembly will have to ask themselves some serious questions about their campaign strategy. They clearly have received no dividends from being in government with Labour.

Since the start of the year the polls have not fluctuated greatly. Labour have been in the mid 40s, Conservatives in the lower 20s, Plaid Cymru round the 20 and the Liberal Democrats in single figures.

Full details of the poll below

YouGov opinion poll. 4 May 2007.

YouGov for ITV Wales news.

This poll was carried out 2-4 May ie fieldwork continued up to this morning.

Sample size: 1010.

Figures for the 2007 election, the April ITV Wales news poll (fieldwork 12-14 April) and the Y Byd ar Bedwar poll (fieldwork 24-26 April) are given for comparison.

                                2007 Election       April poll      Y BaB poll   Latest poll

Constituency vote           

Labour                              32%              49%             45%          47%

Conservative                      22%              20%             21%          20%

Plaid Cymru                       22%              17%             18%          18%

Liberal Democrats              15%               8%              8%              9%

Others                               8%               6%              8%              6%

Regional vote

Labour                                30%               44%            41%            43%

Conservative                        22%               20%            20%            19%

Plaid Cymru                         21%                18%           18%             18%

Liberal Democrats                 12%                 8%             7%               8%

UKIP                                     4%                 2%             7%               7% 

Green                                    4%                 2%             4%               3%

Others                                   8%                 6%             5%               3%

Figures are weighted for likelihood to vote.

Will Plaid castle Labour in Caerffili?

CAERFFILI

2007 Assembly election result

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Cuthbert, Jeff	Labour	9,026	34.6
Whittle, Lindsay	Plaid Cymru	6,739	25.8
Davies, Ron	Independent	5,805	22.2
Foley, Richard	Conservative	2,954	11.3
Price, Huw	Liberal Democrat	1,596	6.1

 Electorate: 61,937 Turnout: 42.2%

Caerffili was a seat heavily associated with the mining industry but is now a seat with a strong manufacturing base. Its proximity to Cardiff is very much a dormitory area for those that work in the Capital City.

After year’s of campaigning for a new general district hospital, a state of the art facility is due to be opened in October 2011.

Political profile

This is a two horse race between Labour and Plaid Cymru the other parties standing will not get a look in.

The seat has always returned a Labour candidate for both Westminster and the Assembly. If the seat were only Caerffili town, Plaid Cymru would be home and dry. But the northern part of the seat around Bargoed has always been loyal to Labour.

Although Plaid Cymru members with long memories reflect on the time they nearly bucked the natural order of things. When back in 1968 a by election was held and the late Phil William of Plaid Cymru came within two thousand votes of taking the seat from Labour.  Locals still recall the fact that many of Harold Wilson’s then cabinet were canvassing for votes on Caerffili council estates.

Whilst Westminster and the Assembly have eluded Plaid Cymru they have fared better in local elections. Control of the county council has seesawed between Labour and Plaid Cymru, it is currently in Plaid Cymru’s control with the help of independents, one of which is Ron Davies. Although having joined Plaid Cymru and is their candidate in the Assembly he does not take the Plaid Cymru whip in the council because he was elected as an independent.

Politics and Election campaigns in Caerffili are robust tribal affairs, more bare knuckle fighting than Queensbury rules. This campaign is no exception. The fact that Ron Davies was once a Labour AM and MP and Deputy Labour leader of the local authority, and his opponent Jeff Cuthbert was once a political ally and Ron Davies’s constituency chair makes for a no holds barred contest.

Plaid Cymru in choosing Mr. Davies as their candidate are hoping that the nearly 6000 votes he picked up when standing last time as an independent can be added to Plaid Cymru’s vote and give them victory.

Ah! If only politics was as straight forward, but alas it is not. In 2007 Labour were in government in Westminster and were far from popular, as a consequence they suffered a poor vote in the Assembly elections. Now times have changed. There is now a reaction to the Conservative /Liberal Democrat coalition in Westminster and Labour are reaping the rewards with high poll ratings.

When the contest started internal polling showed Plaid trailing far behind Labour in the seat. However, Plaid Cymru’s have a very effective election machine and the gap has narrowed during the campaign. Without doubt Labour has shot themselves in the foot with the Wayne David the Labour MP being caught taking down Plaid Cymru posters.  Undoubtedly, such incidences go down badly with voters who scorn such behavior and tend to punish the culprits.  This will help Plaid Cymru. The question is, by how much.

What looked at the start of the contest as a safe bet for a Labour hold, has now become much more problematic. However, Plaid Cymru despite their better organization have much to do to dislodge this Labour seat, there high profile candidate may not be enough.

Much will depend on turnout. If it is low it will favour Plaid Cymru, if high, Labour will keep its grip on the seat, and all be it with a much-reduced majority.

Prediction:  Too close to call

Labour

Jeff Cuthbert

Jeff Cuthbert was elected to the NAW in 2003. He read Mining Engineering in Cardiff University and worked for the NCB in Markham & Oakdale collieries. He was a Labour activist and was Chair of the Caerffili Labour Party.

In the NAW he chairs the Standards and Conduct committee.

Conservative

Owen Meredith

Owen Meredith was born and brought up in Caerffili.  He studied at Keele University, before moving to London where he worked for a Civil Engineering body, specializing in energy, waste management and sustainability. He now works in a support role for a Member of Parliament concentrating on providing support to small and medium businesses.

Liberal Democrat

Kay David

Kay David comes from the area and has worked in a local Boys' Comprehensive school as head of faculty, and has recently been working as a part-time lecturer for the University of Glamorgan, and for the library service.

She has published a book called The Rhymney Valley and The Great War and has made and researched radio programmes on the history of the local area.  She is married with two children. She went to Tredegar Grammar School; Cardiff College of Education; Qualified Modern Dance teacher and also Cardiff University.

Plaid Cymru

Ron Davies

Ron Davies was born in Machen and began his public career as a teacher in the Gwent and Mid Glamorgan counties, before being elected as a Labour MP for Caerffili in 1983. In 1992 he was elected to the Shadow Cabinet and served as Shadow Secretary of Wales. During this period he developed the strategy for devolution. In 1997 Ron became Secretary of State for Wales and legislated for devolution after playing a historic role in the “Yes” campaign.

After resigning from office Ron was elected to the National Assembly for Caerffili in 1999 but stood down in 2003.

Subsequently, he was elected as an independent local Councillor in 2008 and joined the Plaid-led cabinet in Caerffili County. Subsequently, Ron joined Plaid Cymru and was endorsed as candidate for Caerffili in 2010.

British National Party

Anthony King

Labour drop in latest poll

Labour still head the ITVWales/YouGov poll and are on course for their best ever Assembly election results despite having fallen back by 4 per cent since the last poll. 

The poll was conducted for tonight's  "Byd Ar Bedwar" S4C election debate programme.

Strangely this 4 per cent drop may please Labour. Their campaign strategists have been worried that and an overwhelming advantage in the polls might result in complacency amongst their voters and lead to a number not bothering to turn out on Thursday. 

On these figures according to ITV’s analyst Denis Balsom Labour will gain half the seats in the new Assembly. This is one short of an overall majority and raises the prospect of another coalition government.

Both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have gained a percentage point at Labour’s expense. According to Balsom this gives the Tories 15 seats and Plaid Cymru 11 seats.

Despite the Liberal Democrats still treading water with a single figure return of 8 per cent, Balsom still gives them 4 seats. None of the other smaller parties make a break through.

Plaid Cymru will be pushed into third place on these figures for the first time since the National Assembly was created. This will put them at a real disadvantage in any coalition talks. Should there not be a coalition they will not even have the consolation prize of being the official opposition.

The Liberal Democrats despite a drop in the polls will gain seats at the expense of the other minority parties. Even though polling the same as them. 

The other smaller parties continue to put  all their eggs in the regional basket only. The majority of voters tend not to split the votes, hence the Liberal Democrats faring better. Voters in the main vote the same on the regional ballot as they do on the constituency ballot paper. Parties that choose only to fight in the regions are disadvantaged.

The poll in detail is produced below

YouGov opinion poll. 2 May 2007.

YouGov for ‘Y Byd ar Bedwar’ (ITV Wales for S4C, 10.10pm tonight).

This poll was carried out 24-26 April. There will be a final poll on ITV Wales on Wednesday 4 May, with fieldwork carried out up to that date.

Figures for the 2007 election and the YouGov poll published 15 April, are given for comparison.

                                  2007 Election       15 April           2 May.

Constituency vote           

Labour                               32%              49%               45%

Conservative                       22%              20%               21%

Plaid Cymru                        22%              17%               18%

Liberal Democrats                15%               8%                 8%

Others                                  8%               6%                 8%

Regional vote

Labour                                30%               44%                41%

Conservative                        22%               20%                20%

Plaid Cymru                         21%               18%                18%

Liberal Democrats                 12%                8%                  7%

UKIP                                     4%                2%                   7%

Green                                    4%               2%                   4%

Others                                   8%                6%                   5%

Figures are weighted for likelihood to vote.