History in the making

For all those that voted in the referendum to give the Assembly law making powers, today is an historic day. 

The first bill passed by the Welsh assembly is to become law.

And what pray was the the bill in question? A bill that passed the eagle eye of the Attorney general and allowed the Queen to pick up her pen and sign it into law. Well, its the National Assembly for Wales (Official Languages) Bill.

Well, it’s not the kind of bill that sets the pulse raising. Historic it might be, but who says history has to be interesting. This new law gives equal status to the Welsh and English languages in the Assembly. 

Worthy, yes, historic, maybe, but how many are going to be turned on by it. Not many, I’d wager. Whichever, language you read the proceedings of the Assembly in, you can be sure that it’s main effect will be, to cure insomnia.

Never mind, we Welsh love our ceremonies. So in a ceremony the First Minister, Carwyn Jones, fixed an official seal to the document. ‘Cos Carwyn Jones is not only the first minister but he’s also Keeper of the Welsh Seal. 

It’s aways so in Welsh life, you get rewarded with one title and others follow with monotonous regularity. 

But back to the ceremony.

The ceremony will consist of the first minister applying the seal and handing it to the clerk of the assembly. 

Ok, not much of a pageant granted. But it’s history, see. And in the famous words of “1066 and all that.” A thoroughly good thing

Lecturing on the union

Wales’s First Minister warns English Tory MPs not to push for a referendum on leaving the European Union. Their concern with wanting out of the European Union might lead to the breakup of the other Union. The union that is the United Kingdom. 

Carwyn Jones delivered this stark message to the London School of Economics, on the eve of the Scottish government confirming the wording of the question it plans to put to the people of Scotland in the independence referendum.

The people of Scotland will be asked to vote "yes" or "no" to the question: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" Of course, the Electoral Commission will have to give its blessing to the wording.

Carwyn Jones’s view is that if the English, with its large population, vote to leave the European Union and other parts of the UK, like Wales and Scotland, vote to stay in then according to him it puts “us under enormous strain, and could only serve the interests of those who wanted the United Kingdom to cease to exist.” 

In other words the very act of the Conservative Euro-sceptics in pushing for a referendum on leaving the EC is playing into the hands of the “Yes” side of the Scottish question. 

What’s more, it might even push Wales down a similar road.

For almost the last year, Carwyn Jones has been trying  to get the Cameron’s government to take seriously the need establish a convention to look at relationships between the countries of the isles of Britain.

Prime Minister Cameron hasn’t responded.

So Wales’s First Minister set out his stall at the LSE. His theme Wales’s place in the union.

He makes great play on changing the nature of the devolution settlement. He wants a new Act passed in Westminster giving Wales a reserved model of devolution. Meaning he wants Wales to be more like Scotland. 

All the powers over Hadrian’s Wall rest with the Scottish Parliament unless Westminster make an exception. He wants it to be the same for Wales. This would stop the Attorney General referring Welsh Laws to the Supreme Court to rule on their legality.

He’s seen some of the powers of patronage of the British Prime Minister, likes what he sees, and wants some of that for himself. 

So wants the power to nominate potential members to the House of Lords and for a Welsh Judge to sit on the Supreme Court.

He also wants some of the same powers that Scotland has over finance but not income tax unless of course there’s a referendum on the issue. He said

“Welsh voters would expect a say before they found themselves potentially paying a different rate of income tax than in other parts of the UK. In other words, there should be a referendum before this power could be transferred. 

So there we have it. Carwyn has set out his constitutional stall. More powers for the First Minister. But not to much over tax, ‘cos he wouldn’t want to have to raise the money that he spends. Oh, what a happy world that is.

Budget deal

Plaid Cymru have cut a deal with the Welsh Government on next years budget. The deal. £40million over two years for apprenticeships, with the potential, through EU funding, for this to be increased to £60million over two years.  

A further £10million in capital investment for a science park led by Bangor University in collaboration with Aberystwyth University.

So the price of the deal is £25m a year over two years. £5m more than last year’s deal with the Liberal Democrats. 

The £20m accord with the Liberal Democrats last year was described by Plaid as the “Lib Dems have sold their support very cheaply." 

So the going rate in Welsh politics between a good deal and one that is cheap is £5m. So there you have it. The formula for agreeing budgets in Wales.

To be fair to Plaid Cymru, God knows why I am, it does have the potential to ratchet-up an additional £10m courtesy of EU funds. Provided, of course that the unholy coalition of right wing Tories and Miliband’s Labour don’t get their way and reduce the EU budget.

Apart from getting Labour’s budget through and giving Jane Hutt an easy time, what does it amount to? 

Plaid Cymru’s estimates it will provide for between 8000 and 10,500 much needed apprenticeships. And according to Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader “the Science Park would provide a much needed economic boost creating jobs in the construction phase leading to a knock on effect for the wider economy.  She added that the completed Science Park will help to equip young people with the skills they need for a successful future.” 

Not to be out spun a government spokesman said:

"We are very pleased with today's agreement. It's entirely in line with what we're already doing as a Government and what we pledged to implement through our manifesto. Since the last election, via Jobs Growth Wales and our current apprenticeship schemes, we have repeatedly demonstrated our commitment to tackle unemployment amongst our young people. We believe today's deal is an extension of our commitment and the promise we made to the people of Wales.”

So there you have it, Labour would have done it anyway. It poses the question of course, why didn’t they just put it in the budget and dare the other parties to vote against it.

The government even had warm words to the Liberal Democrats.

"We consider the proposals put forward by the Welsh Liberal Democrats during these negotiations, as very interesting. In recognition of this, the ideas they brought to the table during recent weeks, will be examined further by the Government. The Pupil Deprivation Grant that we jointly agreed last year with them, will receive an uplift in the coming financial year and we will look very closely at the idea of an innovative health technologies fund for Welsh patients.”

Meaning, hi, Liberal Democrats behave. Vote for the budget. You got a little of what you fancied last year and perhaps if you’re very very good you might get a fund on health technologies. 

So everyone’s a winner.

Well, not everyone. 

One tory’s comment on the Plaid Cymru deal in the form of a tweet by Darren Miller. ”Plaid backing for the Welsh Labour government’s budget is like a dog returning to its vomit.”

Nothing dog in the mangerish about Mr Miller then.

Obama's second terms

President Barack Obama’s re-election bucks a trend. Not many Western leaders have gone to the electorate and survived when their economies are in recession. Yet, he succeeded despite America's weak economy and high unemployment. 7.9% to be precise.

He even bucked the usual fate of post war US Presidents.   Not since the days of the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt has an incumbent kept his job when the economy is bad. Ex-Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter or George Bush Sr. all faced the wrath of the voters and were kicked out after one-term in the job.

But it might be a case of regretting what you wish for Obama.
He just by the slenders of margins won the popular vote.  It is very much a nation split in half. 

The vote will give the Republican majority in the House of Representatives every justification to frustrate the Democratic President.  

So Obama can look forward to a difficult second term with his proposals held up by a highly partisan legislature. 
Although last night gave him a few more Democratic senators to ease his burden, his task is still immense.

But what relevance is that to us in Wales? I hear you say.

Well, that relevance can be summed up in two words “fiscal cliff.”

Last year in order to get his budget through the President had to reach a deal on tax and spend. This is a car crash agreement. 

Unless there is some change, $7 trillion worth of tax increases and spending cuts will occur in America over the next ten years. 

The scale is so immense, it will pay havoc with the US economy.  A double dip recession is projected for the first part of next year. So unless the newly returned President can get these legislative proposals changed we’ll all be in trouble.

The American economy to a considerable extent still drives the world economy. If the US sneezes the UK catches pneumonia. As the poorest part of the UK, God help Wales in such circumstances.

So we’ve all got to hope that good sense rules the day and agreement can be achieved, and changes happen. The omens don’t look good, but we can but hope. If not, to quote Private Frazer from Dad’s army, “we’re all doomed.” 

Latest on abuse inquiry

Both Wales and Westminster reacted to the allegations that the Waterhouse inquiry into child abuse in North Wales care homes had been limited and that many of the children’s allegations of abuse had not been taken seriously at the time.

In Westminster the Home Secretary, Terresa May announced a new police inquiry led by the head of the National Crime Agency to investigate any fresh allegations, and examine the way the North Wales police handled the original complaints. 

Parallel, but separately, Mrs Justice Julia Wendy Macur will investigate the terms of the Waterhouse abuse inquiry in 2000. In light of concerns that the originally inquiry’s terms of reference were not broad enough to deal with many of the issues involved.

Some of the victims go further and say that inquiry did not examine all of their claims of abuse. One victim alleges that a senior Conservative figure from the Thatcher era was involved in the abuse. The fear is that there might have been an establishment cover up, at the time.

Meanwhile the victim that first raised the issues on Newsnight, Mr Messham met Welsh Secretary David Jones. 

After the meeting Mr Jones said about the inquiry " It's absolutely essential that these people should feel that they have had justice. And wherever the inquiry leads, so be it."

In the Assembly the issue was raised in First Minister’s questions and also in an emergency question to the First Minister.

Carwyn Jones said that he was meeting the Children’s Commisioner “this afternoon.” He explained that he’d “received a letter from him (Children’s Commissioner) where he asks what kind of inquiries can take place under the Welsh governments competence I’m aware, of course, what the Home secretary said this afternoon, I will take into account and indeed I will take into account what the children commissioner says this afternoon there are a number of issues that are caught within the allegations that have been made some of them are devolved and some of them are non-devolved. So its important that any future inquiry should that take play must cover both those areas and would require a joint approach by both governments.” 

Calls for what happened in North Wales to be made subject to a wider inquiry was made by Ken Scates the Assembly Member for Wrexham and a former journalist at the time of the Waterhouse inquiry. 

He said “I believe Operation Yewtree, the criminal investigation into alleged abuse by Jimmy Savile and others, should be broadened into an overarching investigation to include allegations of abuse of children residing in care homes.”
After his meeting with the Children Commissioner the First Minister said 

“During our talks Keith Towler confirmed that his office is actively dealing with a number of people who have contacted him since the weekend.
“The office of the Commissioner is wholly independent, and that is why I would again urge anyone who has any relevant information or concerns to come forward and contact Keith and his team.
“Keith Towler will now meet with representatives appointed by the UK Government to understand further their proposed course of action and explore what role his office could have in this process.
“I will be maintaining close contact with Keith over the coming days and weeks for us to agree the appropriate course of action.”

Abuse inquiry

First minister Carwyn Jones is meeting with Wales' children's commissioner tomorrow following calls for a fresh inquiry into child abuse at north Wales care homes in the 1970s and 80s.

But Carwyn Jones says more witnesses need to come forward before a fresh inquiry. In his view it is unlikely to go ahead on the evidence of one witness. But he is urgently trying to establish what the terms of reference were for the Waterhouse abuse inquiry. What he would do when he receives the information isn't so clear.

Although he did say that he would treat "very seriously indeed" what Steve Messham, the Children’s Commissioner had to say on the matter.

The one thing he was certain about was that politicians should not ask for victims of abuse to contact them. He was directly referring to Leanne Wood who had appealed in the social media for those abused to contact her. 

“Anyone who wants to contact me confidentially regarding abuse allegations in the north of Wales please e mail me at mailto:leanne.wood@wales.gov.uk”

In Carwyn Jones’s view politicians should tread very carefully on such issues.  Politicians should simply tell victims to either contact the police or if they didn’t trust the police, the Children’s Commissioner.

Leanne Wood respose was as follows

“The overriding aim in gathering evidence on abuse allegations is to provide an avenue that victims feel confident in making the first step to recounting vital evidence.  

“While some people may be entirely comfortable reporting abuse to the police, others will not.  Some people may prefer to approach the office of a female Assembly Member.  I’m offering these people, who may have lost confidence in institutions for whatever reason, the opportunity to contact my office in the strictest of confidence. 

“Only this morning my office was contacted by a friend of an abuse victim who said they were not comfortable reporting their allegations to the police because of the way they had been treated in the past. 

“Victims need to have confidence in taking that first step to reporting crimes committed against them. I am more than happy to provide an opportunity for them to do so and to explore all other means by which victims can come forwards.”

The whole matter came up following claims on  last Friday's BBC Newsnight by one of the victims that he was abused by a leading Thatcher-era Conservative politician. 

Steve Messham, one of the victims, said that at the time it was made clear to him what he could say to the Waterhouse inquiry.  He was one of hundreds who were sexually abused during that period  but he maintained that 30% of what he wanted to say was ruled out at the time as outside the terms of reference. 

It wasn't clear to him why such a restriction was imposed.  He now wants a meeting with Prime Minister David Cameron to discuss the matter and ask why?

This constraint placed by Sir Ronald Waterhouse on what the inquiry would take as evidence has led Wales' Children's Commissioner, Keith Towler to call for a new inquiry. Hence the meeting with Carwyn Jones tomorrow.

In 1990s, rumours were rife about abuse in many of North Wales’s childrens homes. There was an initial inquiry by Clwyd County Council but that report was never published and the copies were pulped. At the time it was said that the Council’s insurance company insisted, for fear of large payouts to the victims.

Finally, because of widespread public pressure and concern William Hague, the then Secretary of State set up an inquiry under Sir Ronald Waterhouse. It is this inquiry’s scope that is now being questioned. Some going as far as suggesting a cover-up to protect people in high places.

Now Prime Minister David Cameron has intervened. Whilst on a trip to Abu Dhabi, he announced that he'd ordered an investigation into the way historic child abuse claims in a Welsh children's home were examined.

"Child abuse is an absolutely hateful and abhorrent crime and these allegations are truly dreadful and they mustn't be left hanging in the air, so I'm taking action today," said the Prime Minister.

He said that Steven Messham would be given a meeting with David Jones his minister in Wales. 

He's also going to be asking a senior independent figure to lead an urgent investigation into whether the original investigation was properly constituted and properly did its job.

Cut their cash

It seems appropriate on the feast of All-Saints that the ghost of Major past was resurrected in the Commons yesterday. A Tory PM mauled by his own back benchers on an European issue. Sounds familiar. 

Undoubtedly, the defeat David Cameron suffered will have damaged his credibility and make him look weak. If the vote was seen in isolation then he could have shrugged it off, but it follows a whole series of events that give the impression that Number 10 are not wholly in control of events.

But before Labour gloat to much at the Prime Ministers predicament they should look to themselves. Their vote with right wing Euro sceptics is unlikely to do them much good in the long run. It doesn’t reflect well on them. 

Political opportunism doesn’t go down well with the voter. Labour have opened themselves up to the charge of hypocrisy. 

Why?

Well, each week Labour have attacked the Conservatives on their austerity programme. Labour have wanted a more sophisticated approach than wholesale cuts. They've been urging the Tories to weigh and measure where the axe falls so that the cuts do not harm economic growth. Many economists have agreed with this stance. 

Yet, their vote last night contradicts this measured approach. They were screaming for outright cuts to the EC budget. No, ifs or buts, no discussion about priorities. Just let the axe fall. 

Now, yes, this approach is very much red meat to the right wing Tories. They've never been known to use a scalpel when a sledgehammer will do. But surely one would expect more sophistication in Labour’s approach.

And the action of Welsh Labour MPs was particularly strange. In going down the lobby with such strange bedfellows they've shot themselves in the foot. Their constituencies have benefited from structural funds and CAP payments. Wales has received more than £6 billion of European money these past ten years. 

What’s more the statistics say that there were 33,800 businesses helped by European money and 559,700 people helped. An awful lot of voters helped, methinks.

The Labour First Minister of the Assembly will undoubtedly be going cap in hand to get more of the same in the next round of such largesse. Where do Labour now stand about the various EU programmes to help boost growth and competitiveness in the poorer regions of the EU, of which Wales is one?  

Carwyn Jones should demand answers from the opportunistic Miliband.

How often have we heard our politicians complain about the lack of growth in the EU hurting our economy.  Would it not have been a wiser course for Her Majesty’s Opposition to push the government for a more sophisticated negotiation to shape the budget so as to encourage growth. Shouting and voting for cuts, is just playing to the gallery. It helps no one. It’s saloon bar politics at its worse.

What the country is calling out for is grown up politics. What we got instead last night was the politics of the schoolyard. Shame on them.