Wednesday, 29 September 2010

Latest poll results for Wales

Ed Miliband has been given a real lift in the latest ITV Wales YouGov tracking poll. Labour have leaped ahead by 5 per cent within the last Month. The poll has been conducted this week a few days since Ed Miliband was elected leader.

Labour have gained 12 per cent since the last Assembly elections. If this poll was replicated in next year’s Assembly elections, they would be heading for a majority over all the other parties.
Plaid Cymru with 19 per cent must feel disappointed for they fall 3 per cent behind the Tories. This is the first time since ITV Wales have been tracking the parties, that this has happened. Their status as the second largest party in the Assembly could be in jeopardy if this is the result next May.
The Conservatives have not moved in the polls since August with 22 per cent, the same percentage figure as they gained in the last Assembly elections.
The Liberal Democrats are still under performing with just 11 per cent, well below the 20 per cent they gained in May and the 15 per cent they gained in the last Assembly elections.
It is clear that both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats as junior partners in their respective coalitions both in Cardiff Bay and Westminster are been squeezed in the polls.
Of course the Assembly has a PR element and their is a top up from the regional lists. The polling results in the regions show some slight variations from the constituency poll. Consequently  translating the results of the polls into seats is not a straight forward exercise and should be done with caution.
The ‘yes’ campaigners can take some heart from the poll they still have a 19 per cent lead on the ‘no’ side. Twenty per cent of the population have still to make their minds up on the issue. This must be a cause of some concern to those that want a positive result.
Finally, should it be Ed or Dave, well on the poll evidence Ed was the right choice for Wales.
A summary of the poll is as follows:-


Results of poll carried out 27th to 29th September 2010. sample size: 1088. This month’s poll includes the usual tracking questions plus a one-off question on the Labour party’s choice of new leader.

(compared with 2007 election and previous polls)
If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

           2007 Result    May 2010 Poll   June Poll  July Poll  Aug Poll  Sept Poll
Labour          32%      32%                  42%        40%         39%       44%
Plaid Cymru  22%      22%                  20%         22%        23%       19%
Conservative 22%      21%                  19%         20%        22%        22%
Liberal Dem  15%      20%                  12%         13%        10%        11%
Others             8%       5%                     6%          5%          6%          5%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?
           2007 Result     May 2010 Poll   June Poll    July Poll  Aug Poll  Sept Poll
Labour          30%       30%                  40%          37%          39%      41%
Plaid Cymru   21%      21%                  19%          20%          23%      19%
Conservative  22%      21%                  20%          20%          21%      20%
Liberal Dem   12%      18%                  12%          14%            9%      12%
Others            16%        9%                   9%            8%             8%       8%


(compared with previous polls).
If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

                 April 2010 Poll      June Poll      July Poll      August Poll      September Poll
Yes                            49%             55%           48%                48%                      49%
No                             33%             28%           34%                32%                      30%
Don’t Know/              18%             17%           19%                21%                      20%
Wouldn’t Vote

This Saturday, the Labour party elected Ed Miliband as its leader, ahead of his older brother, David. Which one of the Miliband brothers would have made you more likely to vote for the Labour party at future elections?
More likely with Ed Miliband as leader 13%
Would have been more likely if David Miliband was leader 9%
I would vote Labour anyway 24%
I would not vote Labour anyway 40%
Don’t know 15%


  1. Regarding the polls findings on people's voting intentions in next year's referendum on lawmaking powers i would have thought it is the No campaigners who have rather more cause to be 'concerned' given they have been trailing in the polls by between 15 and 20 percent for over 6 months now! Further how can it be assumed that those who have said they 'dont know' will vote en mass against lawmaking powers? There really is no reason to believe they will.

    Personally im very heartened by this poll and look forward to the official launch of the Yes campaign in a couple of weeks.

    Leigh Richards

  2. Polling for the last referendum kept showing a positive result and as we know it became very close by the end. I would worry about such a large number of undecided. The campaign itself my sway people either way. But as you say the lead is quite healthy at the moment and it would be a brave person not to put money on the 'yes'side winning.

  3. Who would benefit from a higher turnout?

  4. conventional wisdom mike is that a 'higher' turnout will favour the yes vote. Personally i think it will come down to which side manages to mobilise its vote on the day.

    As a yes campaigner ive always been confident of winning the referendum so long as we are able to turn the consistent lead we've enjoyed in the polls into votes on the day...and before the day too in view of the crucial role 'postal' votes are now playing in modern elections of course.

    My guess would be we are looking at a turnout of between 40 and 50 percent...with around 10 percent seperating the winning and losing sides.

    Leigh Richards

  5. 40-50% pretty pathetic dont you think?

  6. Pathetic it might be but I think turnout may be still lower. Many are still confused as to why we need another referendum and unless the campaigning sparks an interest I doubt that many ordiary voters will bother to turnout. I hope I'm proved wrong.

  7. anon you are right when you say 40-50 percent would not be a very good turnout ...should this prediction prove accurate....but its worth pointing out that the turnouts at european and council elections in the uk is often lower than that even!

    Leigh Richards