Wednesday, 24 November 2010

Latest Poll News

Despite the Welsh budget cuts it would seem that the Labour/Plaid coalition government in Cardiff Bay are not been blamed for these cuts and have hitherto escaped the wroth of the voters.

Yes, it’s that time of month again when we see who’s glowing and who’s cursed, who’s up and who’s down in Welsh politics on the basis of the ITV Wales – YouGov tracking poll.

Labour remain buoyant, maintaining their 44 per cent share for the third month in a row on the constituency vote and even edging ahead slightly by 1 percentage point to 41 per cent in the regional or party vote. On the basis of this poll they would have crossed that very difficult winning line of an overall majority, with a projected 31 seats in the Assembly.

Plaid Cymru will be disappointed that they are not doing better. To use a racing metaphor they are running neck and neck with the Conservatives both on 21 per cent in the constituency poll and on 20 per cent on the regional vote. The Conservatives will take some comfort with their 2 per cent gain in both polls on that of October.

The real losers are still the Liberal Democrats for the second month in a row they are in single figures on 9 percentage points in both the constituency and list poll. The will be particularly worried that the ‘Others’ with 11 per cent could snatch the North Wales list seat from them if the voters were to fall for one party such as UKIP.

The Liberal Democrats it would seem are taking the hit for getting into bed with the Conservatives and forming the government in Westminster.

Those wishing for a ‘yes’ vote in next March’s referendum may be slightly disappointed to see the voting intensions slip back to 48 per cent, four points below the October figures. The ‘no’ side are up one point to 30 per cent and those that don’t intend to vote or have still to make their minds up are up two points at 22 per cent. It is still shows a comfortable margin for those wishing to strengthen the powers of the National Assembly.

The poll shows that the Conservatives campaign to ring fence health expenditure is not the killer punch they hoped it would be. 37% of those polled thought that the NHS should face some cuts in order to protect other departments from much bigger cuts, with only 35% saying that the NHS should be protected.

The full poll results are below

Results of poll carried out 22nd to 24th November 2010. Sample size: 1018. This month’s poll includes the usual tracking questions plus a one-off question on WAG and Conservative policy on NHS and schools budgets.

(compared with 2007 election and previous polls in 2010)

If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?
            2007        May       June      July        Aug        Sept      Oct         Nov
Labour     32%     32%       42%      40%      39%       44%      44%       44%
Pl. Cymru 22%     22%       20%      22%      23%       19%      21%       21%
Cons.       22%     21%       19%      20%      22%       22%      19%       21%
Lib. Dem. 15%     20%       12%      13%      10%       11%        9%        9%
Others        8%       5%         6%        5%        6%         5%        8%        6%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?

               2007       May       June       July       Aug       Sept     Oct          Nov
Labour      30%     30%       40%      37%      39%      41%     40%       41%
Pl. Cymru  21%     21%       19%      20%      23%      19%     23%       20%
Cons.        22%     21%        20%     20%      21%      20%     18%       20%
Lib. Dem.   12%    18%        12%     14%        9%      12%      9%         9%
Others        16%      9%          9%       8%        8%        8%     11%      11%

(compared with previous polls in 2010).
If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

                     April       June        July       Aug      Sept      Oct       Nov
Yes                49%       55%        48%     48%     49%      52%     48%
No                 33%       28%        34%     32%     30%      29%     30%
Don’t Know/  18%       17%        19%      21%     20%      20%     22%
Wouldn’t Vote

The Welsh Assembly Government has announced in its draft budget that spending on the NHS will drop in real terms over the next three years, arguing that raising NHS spending in line with inflation would force it to make deeper cuts in other areas, including schools. The Conservative opposition argue that the NHS should be protected from cuts, even if this means much deeper cuts in other areas, including schools.

Which of the following best reflects your view?
1. The NHS should face some cuts if this is the only way to protect other departments from much bigger cuts 37%
2. The NHS should be protected from cuts, even if this means much bigger cuts to areas like schools 35%
3. Neither 18%
4. Don't know 10%


  1. Interesting comments - and similar trends as seen in England with Lib Dems losing out to Labour and all other staying the same.

    Can't agree with analisys of North wales list, on my calculations the Lib Dems are behind Plaid and also maybe behind UKIP. On 9% they will struggle win anything in the North.

  2. I think my comments may not have been clear. For I was indicating that the Liberal Democrat North Wales seat was very much up for grabs.