Monday, 1 November 2010

Poll results show Lib Dem decline.

Many may have missed the latest ITV Wales and Yougov poll results last week due to the half term holiday. They are produced below.
As can be seen there has been a further decline in the support for the Liberal Democrats. They are now for the first time since the poll began in single figures with 9 per cent support both in constituencies and in the regional section. It probably underlines the great unhappiness that Welsh electors feel towards the party in forming a coalition with the Conservatives in Westminster.
Labour continue to maintain their lead with 44 per cent in the constituency section exactly the same figure as that of September and 12 per cent ahead of the results at the last Assembly elections. It is on the margins of having a majority over all other parties and offers Carwyn Jones the opportunity of ditching Plaid Cymru and going it alone in running Wales.
Plaid Cymru regain their place as the second largest party in the poll with 21 per cent ahead of the Conservatives who slip back to 19 per cent, 3 per cent down from September and their results in the last Assembly elections. Although the Conservatives do not seem, as yet, to be blamed for the austerity measures announced by their colleagues in the coalition in Westminster. This might change when the measures are felt in the pocket of the voters by next May.
Those wishing to see more powers for the Assembly will be heartened by the increase in the 'yes' vote. It is now 52 per cent. A still large number have yet to decide how they will vote or whether to vote at all [20%].
When questioned  on which areas of public expenditure the Assembly government should save from the knife, health and education were still regarded as areas that should be left alone.


Results of poll carried out 25th to 27th September 2010. Sample size: 1012. This month’s poll includes the usual tracking questions plus a one-off question on public spending cuts.

(compared with 2007 election and previous polls in 2010)

If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

                  2007 Result   May Poll    June Poll     July Poll      Aug Poll     Sept Poll     Oct Poll

Labour            32%              32%           42%             40%             39%            44%          44%

Pl. Cymru        22%              22%           20%             22%             23%            19%          21%

Cons.               22%              21%           19%             20%             22%            22%          19%

Lib. Dem.         15%              20%           12%             13%            10%             11%            9%

Others                8%                5%             6%               5%              6%              5%             8%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?

                     2007 Result    May Poll    June Poll     July Poll     Aug Poll   Sept Poll    Oct Poll

Labour              30%                30%          40%             37%           39%           41%           40%

Pl. Cymru          21%                21%          19%             20%           23%           19%           23%

Cons.                 22%                21%          20%             20%           21%           20%           18%

Lib. Dem.           12%                18%          12%             14%             9%           12%             9%

Others                16%                   9%           9%               8%             8%             8%           11%

(compared with previous polls in 2010).

If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

                               April Poll          June Poll    July Poll   Aug Poll    Sept Poll    Oct Poll

Yes                             49%                   55%          48%         48%         49%            52%

No                               33%                   28%           34%        32%         30%            29%

Don’t Know/                 18%                   17%          19%         21%         20%           20%
Wouldn’t Vote  

As a result of the UK Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review, the Welsh Assembly government’s budget is being cut. However, it will be up to Assembly ministers to decide how different areas of spending are affected.

From the following areas of spending by the Welsh Assembly Government, please select up to three you think should definitely NOT face spending cuts. (Please select up to three.)

Health 75%
Schools 50%
Business, employment and training 23%
Public Transport 23%
Housing 20%
Projects to help poor communities 19%
College and university education 17%
Road improvements 16%
The environment 11%
Other local government services 9%
Farming and countryside 9%
Arts, culture and heritage 5%
Sport 2%
None of these 2%
Don’t know 3%


  1. Poll findings methinks - not poll results.

  2. Yes, I agree. I've slapped myself!

  3. Never mind the stats. Just tell me that Peter Black could get dumped.

  4. Peter Black is on top of the list in his region and is likely to be returned on this poll. Not so, the North Wales list where it looks very bleak for the Liberal Democrats. So Cllr Aled Roberts's success in gaining number one slot on the list in that region over the current Assembly Member,Eleanor Burnham, may turn out to be a hollow victory indeed.

  5. Gareth,

    Can you clarify whether this poll was carried out in October or September?

    There appears to be a typo on the YouGov tables.

  6. It is a lift from the original research, but the research was done in Octobe. The conclusions are reliable.