Wednesday, 22 December 2010

Poll predicts Liberal Democrat on the slide

Support for the Liberal Democrats is melting  a great deal faster than the winter snow according to the latest ITV Wales/YouGov tracker poll recently released.
The Liberal Democrats are now down to 6 per cent, 3 points lower than their November results and 9 points lower than their results in the last Assembly elections. On the regional list they sink even lower to 5 per cent which is half that those polled give to other minority parties.
If these results happened on polling day they would be in danger of being wiped out completely if the votes of the 'others' were to concentrate on one other party such as UKIP or the Greens.
The Labour Party continue to poll well with no change at 44 per cent. A figure that gives Carwyn Jones a majority over all other parties and an opportunity to ditch Plaid Cymru and the current coalition.
Welsh Conservatives see an increase of 2 per cent  in the poll, they are now on 23 per cent just in front of Plaid Cymru who remain on 21 pre cent. Plaid remain static in the polls  having polled the same figure these last 3 months. Clearly, being a minority partner in government is not helping them with the electorate.
Both the Yes and No sides in the referendum campaign seem to be losing ground to those that have either not made their minds up or don't intend to vote at all with their figures now up to 29 pre cent. These figures  point to a referendum with a very low turn out. All the campaigning seems to have done hitherto is to confirm those great words of Willy Whitelaw of "stirring up apathy."
The poll also asked people whether they were worried about the ability to pay for Christmas. It seems that the numbers are worryingly high. An indication about how uncertain people are about the general state of the economy.
For the anorak amongst you the poll results in full are below.


Results of poll carried out 20th to 22nd December 2010. Sample size: 1005. This month’s poll includes the usual tracking questions plus a one-off question on how worried people are about paying for Christmas.

(compared with 2007 election and previous polls in 2010)
If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

                2007  May  June   July   Aug   Sept  Oct    Nov  Dec
Labour     32%   32%  42%  40%  39%  44%  44%  44%  44%
Pl. Cymru 22%   22%  20%  22%  23%  19%  21%  21%  21%
Cons.       22%   21%  19%  20%  22%  22%  19%  21%  23%
Lib. Dem. 15%   20%  12%  13%  10%  11%   9%     9%  6%
Others       8%      5%  6%     5%    6%    5%   8%     6%   6%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?
               2007   May  June  July   Aug   Sept  Oct   Nov  Dec
Labour     30%    30%  40% 37% 39%   41%  40% 41% 42%
Pl. Cymru 21%    21%  19% 20% 23%   19%  23% 20% 21%
Cons.       22%    21%  20% 20% 21%   20%  18% 20% 22%
Lib. Dem. 12%    18%  12% 14%  9%   12%    9%   9%   5%
Others      16%      9%    9%   8%   8%    8%  11%  11% 10%

(compared with previous polls in 2010).
If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?
                      April  June  July   Aug  Sept Oct   Nov Dec
Yes                49%  55%  48% 48% 49% 52% 48% 46%
No                 33%  28%  34% 32% 30% 29% 30% 25%
Don’t Know/ 18%   17%  19% 21% 20% 20% 22% 29%
Wouldn’t Vote

Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

I am more worried about how I am going to pay for Christmas this year compared with last Christmas 25%
I am less worried about how I am going to pay for Christmas this year compared with last Christmas 9%
I am just as worried about how I am going to pay for Christmas this year compared with last Christmas 20%
I was not worried about paying for Christmas last year and am not worried about it this year 34%
None of these 7%
Don’t know 5%


  1. How does this translate into seats?

  2. It is difficult to translate these figures into seats because of the balancing factor of the regional list, so much depends on how minority parties do and how the big parties do in constituency seats. My best bet on these poll results would be Labour 32 PC 13 Con 13 LD 2. But there is a big health warning. For instance UKIP could snatch a seat as could the Greens on one of the regional lists based on these poll results.
    Hope this helps!

  3. Thanks Gareth a happy Christmas to you and yours.

    Mike Cridland