Llanelli: Labour breathing down Plaid's neck?

LLANELLI

2007 Assembly election results

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Jones, Helen Mary	Plaid Cymru	13,839	50.1
Thomas, Catherine	Labour	9,955	36.1
Morgan, Andrew	Conservative	2,757	10.0
Townsend, Jeremy	Liberal Democrat	1,051	3.8

Electorate 56,154 Turnout: 49.2%

Llanelli associated with the heavy industries of steel and tin plate. Whilst these industries have declined it is still a town that is dependent on manufacturing. Tourism has increasingly played a part in the local economy with the development of the Millennium Coastal Park. The old mining valley of Gwendraeth is also part of the constituency. It has a high number of Welsh speakers(41.5%) spread throughout the constituency but particularly strong in the old mining valleys.

Political Profile

Labour has held this seat in Westminster since 1935. First, by Jim Griffiths a deputy leader of the Labour party and the first Secretary of State for Wales, until 1970, and then Denzil Davies until 2005. The current Member of Parliament is Nia Griffiths

However, Plaid Cymru has challenged Labour’s hegemony by winning the seat in Assembly elections. Helen Mary Jones for Plaid Cymru won the seat in the first Assembly elections but lost the seat to Labour in 2003 with the slender of margins 21 votes to be precise. Plaid Cymru won the seat back with a comfortable majority at the last election. With nearly a 4000 majority it would now seem to be a relatively safe Plaid Cymru seat.

For Labour to get their overall majority in the Assembly this is the type of seat that they have to win. It is on their hit list of seats. Carwyn Jones and Peter Hain have made frequent visits to the area , even the Leader of the Labour Party, Ed Milliband has also made an appearance. What impact these high profile visitors will make against a well-organized local Plaid machine remains to be seen.

There is a potential problem for Plaid Cymru in the form of Sian Caiach. She is a former member of Plaid and has decided to throw her hat in the ring under the “Putting Llanelli First” banner. Any votes she garners in are likely to be at Plaid Cymru’s expense.

The national polls have also indicated a movement away from Plaid to Labour. If this was to happen in this seat it makes things very close indeed.

Prediction: Too close to call

Candidates

Putting Llanelli First

Sian Caiach

A Carmarthen County Councillor, who was formerly a member of Plaid Cymru but removed from Plaid Cymru's list of approved election candidates after being accused of leaking stories to the media.

Labour

Keith Price Davies

Is a former teacher who became an education administrator finishing his career as Director of Education for Carmarthenshire he lives in Furnace is married with two teenage boys. He is a community governor at Furnace School and a parent governor at Strade School.

Plaid Cymru
Helen Mary Jones

Helen Mary Jones was the Deputy Leader of Plaid Cymru at the National Assembly for Wales and spokesperson for Health & Social Services. She was also Chair of the Children & Young People's Committee in the National Assembly.

She has worked in youth and community work, has been a special needs teacher and immediately before she was elected, worked for the Equal Opportunities Commission in Wales as their Deputy Director promoting equality between women and men.

Conservative

Andrew Morgan

Is the Chair of Llanelli Conservative Party and works in finance and is from the area.

Liberal Democrat

Cheryl Philpott

Cheryl Philpott is a Swansea County Councillor for the Sketty area.

Pembrokeshire: will they revert back?

PRESELI-PEMBROKESHIRE

2007 Assembly election results

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Davies, Paul	Conservative	11,086	38.6
Dunwoody, Tamsin	Labour	7,881	27.4
Osmond, John	Plaid Cymru	7,101	24.7
Davies, Hywel	Liberal Democrat	2,652	9.2

Electorate 56,430 Turnout: 50.9%

The seat established in 1997 stretches from the hills of Preseli to the northern shore of Milford Haven. Linguistically it is a seat of two halves with most of the 27 per cent Welsh speakers living in the northern part of the constituency. The area’s economy has suffered with the running down of refining, fisheries and the closure of defense establishments. Tourism and agriculture play an increasingly important part in the economy of the area, although the port of Fishguard is an important transit point to Ireland and as a result has had some European funds.

Political profile

The seat is a marginal seat. In the election of 1997 Labour won the seat and held on to it in Parliament until the 2005 general election when the Conservative candidate won the seat. Labour also won the seat in the Assembly first elections and held the seat in 2003 losing to the Conservatives in the last Assembly elections.

One would expect with Labour’s lead in the recent opinion polls that this seat would be a natural target for the party but there does not seem to be the kind of buzz one would expect in a seat that is about to change hands. Indeed quite the opposite, it is the Conservative party in Pembroke that seem to be doing all the running. They are extremely well organized and were the first off the mark in getting their campaign material out and their posters up. Their candidate Paul Davies took a lead role in the ‘yes’ side in the recent successful referendum and will have increased his profile as a result.  He is also helped by the fact that his Labour and Plaid Cymru opponents are both active in local government politics in Milford Haven and may well split the vote in that area between them.

Prediction:

Conservative to keep the seat.

Candidates


Labour

Terry Mills

Terry Mills was born and brought up in Milford Haven. He is a former entrepreneur, business advisor and chief executive of Prime Cymru, a charity created by the Prince of Wales. He is a former Labour county councillor.

Conservative

Paul Davies

Paul Davies, before his election to the National Assembly for Wales in he worked as a Business Manager for Lloyds TSB, based in Haverfordwest.

Before election to the Assembly he fought the Ceredigion Parliamentary by-election 2000 and also fought the subsequent 2001 general election as the Conservative candidate for Ceredigion. In 2003, he unsuccessfully fought Preseli Pembrokeshire in the Assembly elections.

He was the Shadow Minister for Education and the Welsh Language, having served until March 2009 as Shadow Minister for Culture, the Welsh Language and Sport.

 Liberal Democrats

Bob Kilmister

Bob Kilmister is aged 55, married with one child, living on a smallholding in Llanychaer. He is County Councillor for Dinas Cross on the Pembrokeshire County Council

Plaid Cymru

Rhys Sinnett

Rhys Sinnett is 48 years old and married with two children. He works for Public Health Wales and is professionally qualified in general and mental health nursing having worked in the NHS for 30 years.

He is Plaid Cymru councillor in Milford Haven and is Vice-Chair of Pembrokeshire County Council's Children and Families Scrutiny Committee. Mid and West Wales region.

Latest Poll results

 The latest ITVWales/YouGov polls show Labour moving towards that elusive majority. In the last fortnight they have gained two points. 

Their campaign of portraying themselves as a defence against the Westminster coalition government seems to be hitting the chord with the electorate.

The Conservative vote seems to be holding steady on or about the mark they got in the last Assembly elections and on this poll look like overtaking Plaid Cymru as the second largest party in the Assembly.

Despite a professional launch and an aspirational manifesto Plaid Cymru have not moved in the polls since the campaign has got underway and must be under pressure to look closely at their campaign in the remaining fortnight.

Again the Liberal Democrats are languishing with single figures and are facing significant losses in May. Being the junior party to the Conservative government in Westminster is pushing them to the fringes here in Wales.

There does have to be a serious word of caution about the polls, they are a sample taken over the whole of Wales and should not be taken as a guide to what might happen in individual constituencies. 

In marginal seats the battle will be intense between the various competing parties and these local campaigns may buck the trends shown in the national polls. The constituency profiles may more accurately reflect what is happening in the marginals.

Poll details below:

YouGov poll figures in detail, compared with the 2007 result and with the last three polls. The sample was 1078, the fieldwork 12^th to 14^th April.  

                      May 2007  Jan 2011   4-8 March '11    28-30 March '11  12-14 April '11

Labour            32%          45%            48%               47%                   49%

Conservative   22%          21%            20%               21%                   20%

Plaid Cymru    22%           21%           19%               17%                   17%

Lib Dem         15%             7%             7%                 8%                    8%

Others             8%             6%             7%                 6%                    6%

Regional vote

Labour           30%           41%            45%                45%                   44%   

Conservative  22%           20%            20%                20%                   20%

Plaid Cymru   21%            21%           18%                16%                   18%

Lib Dem        12%              8%             5%                  8%                    8%

UKIP              4%              4%             5%                  6%                    4%

Green             4%              2%             4%                  2%                    2%

Others            8%              4%             2%                  2%                    4% 

Camarthen West: too close to call

CAMARTHEN WEST & SOUTH PEMBS

2007 Assembly election results

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Burns, Angela	Conservative	8,590	30.1
Gwyther, Christine	Labour	8,492	29.7
Dixon, John	Plaid Cymru	8,340	29.2
Gossage, John	Liberal Democrat	1,806	6.3
Calver, Malcom	Independent	1,340	4.7

Electorate 57,478 Turnout: 49.7%

The seat was established in 1997 and combines rural west Carmarthen with the southern coastline of Pembrokeshire. The number of Welsh speakers (26.7%) tend to live in the eastern part of the constituency, with the Pembroke part been described as ‘little England beyond Wales.’ The economy activity is based on the deep water ports of the Haven with its refineries, tourism based on the ‘Welsh riviera and agriculture. Camarthen town is also an administrative centre with many jobs  in the public sector.

Political Profile 

This seat can be described as very much a three -way marginal, with only 250 votes dividing the Conservative, Labour and Plaid Cymru candidates at the last Assembly elections. The sitting Labour being pipped at the post by the Conservative by 98 votes. 

At the last general election the Conservative candidate overturned a 2,043 Labour majority to gain the seat with a 3,423 majority.

All the indications are that this election is coming at the wrong time in the election cycle for Angela Burns the incumbent. If fields could vote the Conservatives would be home and dry on the poster count, but unfortunate for them the election system is based on ballot papers in the box. It is likely that her vote will suffer a dramatic decrease and all the indications are that it is a two horse or to be more accurate a two mare race between Labour and Plaid Cymru.

In the industrial base of Pembroke Dock Labour have the advantage but in the more rural parts and the Welsh speaking east  Plaid Cymru have the edge.

It is likely to go to the wires and it may all be determined by which party machine is most effective at getting the vote out. In campaign terms Plaid Cymru seem to be the most energetic and may nose in front.

Prediction 

Conservative defeat but Plaid/Labour too close to call.

Candidates

Labour

Christine Gwyther

Christine Gwyther who is from Pembroke Dock, held the constituency seat from 

1999-2007. 

She failed to retain her seat in the 2007. Before going into politics, she worked as a  

Development Officer for Pembrokeshire County Council

During the first term of the Assembly, she was the Minister of Agriculture under the leadership

of Alun Michael. but was dismissed from her post as Welsh agriculture minister by Rhodri 

Morgan on the eve of the Royal Welsh Agricultural show. 

She fought the neighbouring seat of Camarthen East in the last general election.

Conservative

Angela Burns

Angela Burns lives in Pembrokeshire with her husband and two young children. She describes herself as a businesswoman having worked for both large and small businesses. She was elected an Assembly Member in May 2007and has served as party’s Shadow Minister for Finance and Shadow Minister for Regeneration and Transport. She was also Chair of the NAW’s Finance committee. She was appointed Shadow Minister for the Environment and Planning in February 2009.

Liberal Democrat

Selwyn Runnett

Selwyn Runnett lives and works in West Wales. He has been a property professional for over 30 years and is currently a letting and estate agent. He is a Town Councillor and has campaigned on issues relating to rural communities and market towns including the campaign to re-open St Clears railway station and to achieve better train services for West Wales.

Plaid Cymru 

Nerys Evans 

Nerys Evans is Plaid’s Director of Policy and was elected to the National Assembly in 2007. She holds Plaid’s Education portfolio. She read Politics at Manchester University and began working as Plaid Cymru Community Organiser in Carmarthen East in 2002.