Latest Poll results

Labour maintain their lead in the polls according to the latest ITV Wales/YouGov poll.

They increase their lead slightly on the December election to 46% and have  a 13 point lead on their  2007 Assembly election results. Making a  majority government a realistic aspiration.

Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives are running neck and neck with each other, both on 21%. A slight fall in the Conservative polling from their 23% in December.

The party that have cause for concern are the Liberal Democrats. They still remain in single figures in both the constituency and regional polls. 


In Wales they poll much lower than their poll ratings in the rest of the UK. Here the daily YouGov’s  poll for the Sun has  them at 10% [ CON 37%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%]. 


The figures would indicate that more of the voters in Wales are punishing Liberal Democrats for entering the coalition in Westminster with the Tories.


Again  the polls show that voters are coming back to Labour in droves in  Wales whilst it still remains slow progress in the rest of the  UK. They have a stunning 25 point lead on the Conservatives in Wales which contrast with only a 6 point lead on them in the rest of the UK.


My analysis of how the poll translates into seats, of course, the usual health warning applies, and I presume a uniform swing and with Blaenau Gwent  reverting back to Labour. 


Given all these caveats, on the poll  Labour would gain their much hoped for majority with 31 seats. But as the Chinese would say, be careful what you hope for, a small majority would pose a real headache for Carwyn Jones.


Management of government on a small majority causes logistic problems, he becomes a real prisoner to his  group each one of which would have to be kept sweet.  He might find it easier all round if the current coalition with Plaid Cymru were to continue. 


Plaid Cymru on these figures, breathe a sigh of relief, for they remain the second largest party in the Assembly with 14 seats. 


The Conservatives are on 10 and the Lib Dems  5. Despite the low poll rating for the Lib Dems, the list system works in their favour

Again the poll points to the 'yes' side looking forward to an easy victory in March referendum. Although there still remains a large number that indicate that they don't intend to vote. Making a low poll a likely outcome.

ITV WALES YOUGOV TRACKING POLL.

Results of poll carried out 24^th to 26^nd January 2011. Sample size: 1113.

ASSEMBLY VOTING INTENTION

(compared with 2007 election and December’s poll. NB This month’s figures are weighted by likelihood to vote, unweighted figures are given in brackets)

If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

                  2007           Dec       Jan

Labour        32%           44%        45%    (47%)

Pl. Cymru    22%          21%         21%    (20%)

Cons.           22%         23%         21%    (21%)

Lib. Dem.     15%           6%           7%      (7%)

Others           8%           6%           6%      (7%)

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?

                     2007         Dec        Jan

Labour           30%          42%       41%   (43%)

Pl. Cymru       21%          21%       21%   (20%)

Cons.             22%          22%       20%   (20%)

Lib. Dem.       12%             5%         8%    (8%)

Others            16%          10%        10%   (11%)

REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTION

(compared with December’s poll. Again, this month’s figures are weighted for likelihood to vote, the unweighted figures are in brackets)

If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

                               Dec             Jan

Yes                          46%             49%       (44%)

No                            25%             26%       (23%)

Don’t Know/             29%             26%       (32%)

Wouldn’t Vote