Pembrokeshire: will they revert back?

PRESELI-PEMBROKESHIRE

2007 Assembly election results

	Party	Votes Cast	Percentage
Davies, Paul	Conservative	11,086	38.6
Dunwoody, Tamsin	Labour	7,881	27.4
Osmond, John	Plaid Cymru	7,101	24.7
Davies, Hywel	Liberal Democrat	2,652	9.2

Electorate 56,430 Turnout: 50.9%

The seat established in 1997 stretches from the hills of Preseli to the northern shore of Milford Haven. Linguistically it is a seat of two halves with most of the 27 per cent Welsh speakers living in the northern part of the constituency. The area’s economy has suffered with the running down of refining, fisheries and the closure of defense establishments. Tourism and agriculture play an increasingly important part in the economy of the area, although the port of Fishguard is an important transit point to Ireland and as a result has had some European funds.

Political profile

The seat is a marginal seat. In the election of 1997 Labour won the seat and held on to it in Parliament until the 2005 general election when the Conservative candidate won the seat. Labour also won the seat in the Assembly first elections and held the seat in 2003 losing to the Conservatives in the last Assembly elections.

One would expect with Labour’s lead in the recent opinion polls that this seat would be a natural target for the party but there does not seem to be the kind of buzz one would expect in a seat that is about to change hands. Indeed quite the opposite, it is the Conservative party in Pembroke that seem to be doing all the running. They are extremely well organized and were the first off the mark in getting their campaign material out and their posters up. Their candidate Paul Davies took a lead role in the ‘yes’ side in the recent successful referendum and will have increased his profile as a result.  He is also helped by the fact that his Labour and Plaid Cymru opponents are both active in local government politics in Milford Haven and may well split the vote in that area between them.

Prediction:

Conservative to keep the seat.

Candidates


Labour

Terry Mills

Terry Mills was born and brought up in Milford Haven. He is a former entrepreneur, business advisor and chief executive of Prime Cymru, a charity created by the Prince of Wales. He is a former Labour county councillor.

Conservative

Paul Davies

Paul Davies, before his election to the National Assembly for Wales in he worked as a Business Manager for Lloyds TSB, based in Haverfordwest.

Before election to the Assembly he fought the Ceredigion Parliamentary by-election 2000 and also fought the subsequent 2001 general election as the Conservative candidate for Ceredigion. In 2003, he unsuccessfully fought Preseli Pembrokeshire in the Assembly elections.

He was the Shadow Minister for Education and the Welsh Language, having served until March 2009 as Shadow Minister for Culture, the Welsh Language and Sport.

 Liberal Democrats

Bob Kilmister

Bob Kilmister is aged 55, married with one child, living on a smallholding in Llanychaer. He is County Councillor for Dinas Cross on the Pembrokeshire County Council

Plaid Cymru

Rhys Sinnett

Rhys Sinnett is 48 years old and married with two children. He works for Public Health Wales and is professionally qualified in general and mental health nursing having worked in the NHS for 30 years.

He is Plaid Cymru councillor in Milford Haven and is Vice-Chair of Pembrokeshire County Council's Children and Families Scrutiny Committee. Mid and West Wales region.