An eloquence of them

There were 37 pages devoted to firms of solicitors and lawyers in Yellow pages for the Cardiff and West Wales region. All be it, my book was a bit dated but it seems clear we’re over-run with lawyers.  An eloquence of lawyers we have in abundance.

As an ordinary hack I’ve seen them in many guises over the years. The one thing they seem to have in common, apart from their eloquence of course, is they’re usually well heeled.

Now in half term week with little happening in the Assembly I decided to trawl through the minutes of some of our committees, yes, I know I need to get a life. But I happen to come across this exchange. A question by Dafydd El to Edwina Hart the Business Minister.

I am sure that you will be aware, Minister, that some established companies in the city are of the opinion that the support you provided during this month to Lewis Silkin to establish and develop its operation is considered as unfair competition and some sort of subsidy to a firm of lawyers from London to compete unfairly with companies from Cardiff. How do you respond to that, and will you explain clearly to the committee, and to any other interested parties, that this type of assistance is available to companies already based in the area? Enterprise zones are not just about inward investment.

 Edwina Hart: Enterprise zones are about enhancing job opportunities—the retention of jobs and additional jobs. If you are an existing company and you are in an enterprise zone—this is particularly key in Deeside, where we have some larger companies on the periphery—and you wish to expand your operation, what is available in the enterprise zones would also be available to you. I am also quite disappointed by some of the attitudes towards what we are trying to encourage into the Cardiff zone. It is a good zone in terms of the professional and financial services that we want to bring in, and they will be good-quality jobs. It is very important that the Welsh business community as a whole welcomes the development of the enterprise zones and recognises that we can make appropriate offers to Welsh companies that are already there if they are taking on additional staff.

[159] It is important to recognise, particularly in financial services, that companies sometimes outgrow premises and want to be in one centre, thereby bringing in additional jobs, and we will definitely welcome such companies if they want to relocate to the enterprise zone.

And what was the good Lord referring to, I hear you ask. A not insignificant grant to bring yet another law firm to Cardiff.  Lewis Silkin to be precise. The firm is coming to Cardiff with the help of a £160,000 business finance grant from the Welsh Government. 

Now not many will worry to much that there is another competitor to all the other law firms in Cardiff. Although all this competition doesn't drive down their fees. But that's a different story.
But as tax-payers we're entitled to ask whether dishing out our cash to fat cat law firms is a good use of public money.

Now Enterprise matters. Of course we wish all the Enterprise zones to succeed. But if syphoning public money to well-heeled law firms is what they’re about I’m not sure that they’re going to be doing much to get the Welsh economy moving.

Some flesh, please.

If polls are to be believed Ed Miliband will cruise to victory in the general election 2015. The latest Guardian poll has the Conservatives down to  29%(-4), Labour up 41%(+3), Liberal Democrat down 13%(-2) and UKIP up 9%(+3). 

The 12 point lead reflects what other polls are also saying. 

If such a lead was replicated on election day Labour would be returned with a majority of 92 seats. Indeed something for, young Ed to get excited about.

The lead reflects not Ed Milibands outstanding contribution to political debate, but the public giving a massive thumbs down to the current coalition government. The fact is it’s governments that lose elections and oppositions have to do very little to gain the votes. 

Perhaps this is just as well as Ed Miliband has done very little that is positive, except perhaps to emphasise that Labour is for one nation. What that means for Wales and Scotland only he knows. Perhaps at some time he’ll spell it out for us. 

But it wins him votes in middle England so why worry about the sensibilities of Wales or Scotland. After all the voters there will vote for him blindly come hell or high water.

Indeed the failure to reassure that he’ll end Wales’s underfunding  and his glee at supporting cuts to the EU budget at Wales’s expense. Even Carwyn Jones was moved to moan about his stance. Miliband is doing what past Labour leaders have done, take Wales for granted. 

He sees the Welsh voter as nothing more than cannon fodder to Labour’s Westminster ambitions. Treat them like mushrooms. In the dark with copious amounts of muck thrown at them. 

Now Mervyn King has predicted that it’s likely that the economic gloom that is doing so much to harm Cameron’s prospects of winning will continue until the election.

The central bank's 2% target for inflation will remainuntil at least the end of 2015, peaking at 3.2% in the second half of this year, it said. Growth, which is not expected to get above 1% this year, will fail to gain any momentum until 2015 when the economy will regain the size it last achieved in 2007. Not the best of conditions for winning elections. 

After all it’s the economy, stupid. Elections in part are won or lost on the country’s economic future. With official figures showing that low wages and high inflation over recent years have badly hit household incomes. People ain’t going to vote unless they feel a party can offer them hope of change.

Indeed the Office for National Statistics said the real value of average earnings after 30 years of strong growth has fallen back to 2009 levels and the economy is no larger than it was in 2005.

All point to Cameron being a one term prime minister. But we surely need to know what the alternative is. It’s about time Miliband gave us a clue what he wants power for. 

Labour in Westminster has being playing a typical Opposition game, using every opportunity it can to wrong foot the government. Ok, that’s what Oppositions do. But there comes a time when the games have to stop and serious policy alternatives have to be offered. 

Voters need to know that they’re going to get something more than a slightly pinkish version of current policy.  Not much sign of alternatives being offered yet. 

Now is the time when MIliband should be moving away from slogans and offering substance. C’mon Ed what have you got to offer?

Added misery

No one would be heartless enough to pass on a bill immediately to a grieving parent. Or would they?

This is precisely what will happen after April. Government changes to housing benefit and more specifically the bedroom tax.

In April that’s when the “bedroom” tax comes into force.

If tenants rent a house and are on housing benefit they’d lose on average £11 per week if they were under-occupying by 1 bedroom. Those under-occupying by 2 bedrooms or more would lose on average £19 per week. 

They’d have to make the money up themselves to pay the rent.  But they wouldn’t be on housing benefit in the first place if they could pay the rent. 

All  families that are on housing benefit that suffer a child’s death and the bedroom is empty could find themselves under-occupying and subject to the bedroom tax. 

No sooner that they’ve got over their grieving. They get their benefit cut. The missing child puts them into the situation that they’re under-occupying. And their local council is obliged to wield the axe. 

A heartless act. But councils have no choice, the housing benefit regulations have been passed by the government and will come into force in this instance in April. 

But here’s the rub. This could happen every time a child dies or goes missing and the parents are on housing benefit. 

Surely, no government would deliberately introduce such a policy. Another example of the law of unexpected consequence. Perhaps the government should rethink its housing benefit reform and prevent additional suffering to grieving families.

Independence, when? In the fullness of time.

Carwyn Jones called for it and now Leanne Wood the Plaid Cymru leader wants it. Pre-Scottish referendum talks on the UK constitution. Her view is that we need it to prevent Wales losing out should Scotland vote itself out of the Union. 

David Cameron shows no inclination to listen to either. He’s not prepared to deal with the issue until after the Scottish vote. His view is that he’ll look at the issue of Scottish powers if there’s a no vote. And presumably if such discussions take place Wales will get a look in as well.

Leanne Wood’s argument is that Wales would lose out in a smaller UK sans Scotland. Echoing a view held not only by Carwyn Jones but also Rhodri Morgan.

Why would that be? Well, the rump House of Commons would be dominated by MPs representing English constituents and these would have little regard for Wales. Would the HM Treasury feel inclined to booster the subsidy it gives to Wales? 
Unlikely. What’s the political advantage to them. 

If the Union with Scotland is severed,  keeping Wales on board at a greater cost to itself is unlikely to be top of their agenda. Once the two largest countries in the Union have gone their separate ways, the English dominated Parliament will pay even less regard to Wales than it does today.

Under Leanne Wood’s leadership a view is emerging that Plaid will not be pushing for a Welsh independence referendum until there’s a dramatic turnabout in Wales’s economy. 

Speaking in Westminster Jonathan Edwards MP said: "We are not in a position to win independence until we have improved the Welsh economy." He latches onto the fact that only 89,000 people in Wales pay the 40% income tax rate  and by Plaid’s own reckoning it will take 10 to 15 years before the gap between the performance of the Welsh and English economies closes.

A view echoed by his predecessor in Parliament, Adam Price. He’s now co-chairing Plaid's economic commission, and said: "It just isn't possible to close that gap in anything less in than 10 to 15 years. It will take at least a decade or a decade and a half to undo the damage done by successive governments."

The implications is that a vote on Welsh independence will not take place until everything is fine and dandy with the economy. It could be a long wait. Few other independence movement have held themselves back with such restraints.

Wales is the poorest country in the UK. It is also poorer than most English regions. Being a member of the Union might have done lots for Wales but riches is not one of them. Hoping that the English coin is going to make things better would seem to be a forlorn hope. And that same English coin deliver the conditions for independence, scarcely credible.

If there is  an argument for independence it should be ‘give it us now and then we’ll sort ourselves out.’ 

Independence on the back of another nations subsidy is not a very winning campaign slogan, me thinks.

The marriage game

David Cameron is going to suffer a definite thumbs down from Welsh Tory MPs.  All eight MPs are set to vote against legalising gay marriage in parliament later today.

Although its a free vote meaning MPs are able to vote without the party whips setting the agenda. The issue is regarded as a conscience vote.

Despite it being an issue of “conscience” if a large number of Conservatives vote against the Prime Minister it will be seen as a split in Tory party ranks. 

Most other MPs from Wales are expected to back the Bill. 

The only other prominent politician expected to vote against is Paul Murphy the Torfaen MP  a prominent catholic and a papal knight. 

Prime Minister David Cameron has insisted that the bill is the "right thing to do". But clearly has not being able to persuade large sections of his own party. They are determined to live up to the label of the “nasty” party.

More than 20 current and former constituency chairmen paraded themselves in front of 10 Downing Street urging the prime minister to delay any parliamentary decision on gay marriage until after the next election. They were of the view that "significant damage to the Conservative Party in the run-up to the 2015 election" if the plans enter law.

Although the reaction amongst the grass roots of the Tory party against the Marriage (Same sex couples) Bill is great. Their stance it is unlikely to help win the support of the centre ground in politics. A group whose votes determine election results. 

So what’s the fuss all about. The bill allows same sex couples to marry and also allows couples who had previously entered into civil partnerships to convert their relationship into a marriage. 

Although some religious groups are opposed to the Bill no such body will be obliged to conduct marriage ceremonies against the will. 

It would seem that like many another social issue, politicians and also some church leaders get themselves into a terrible state. It’s all woe, woe and thrice woe. But a few years down the line everyone wonders what all the fuss was about.

“There never was issued such a terrible curse,

but what gave rise, with no little surprise,

No one seemed no penny the worse.”

Lies, damned lies and politicians.

A politician lying. Don't hold the front page. Except in this case it's a must. For the said politician lied to the courts. Ex-cabinet Minister Chris Huhne  has pleaded guilty to the charge of perverting the course of justice. 

Bad news indeed for him. Whatever the sentence, his political career is finished - gone, kaput, down the drain. 

This is the guy that in every interview swore his innocence but   now admits that he was lying through his teeth. 

He lied and will take the consequences. But his party will also now face a by-election and could also suffer some collateral damage. 

He was a prominent Liberal Democrat. A party that in the minds of many have a problem with “trust.” Having broken their pledge on tuition fees many felt they’d been mislead. Huhne’s behaviour just reinforces this. 

Not the best of circumstances for the party to defend the  Eastleigh seat. 

Although that said, they do have a formidable local presence. In the local Council they greatly outnumber the Conservatives. It is certainly not going to be a shoe-in for the Tories.

It is a genuine marginal seat.  The two coalition parties have got to slug it out here. 

Indeed it offers as much danger to Cameron as it does for Clegg. For it’s a seat Cameron has got  to win if he’s to silence the critics within his party that he’s a loser. He’s got to show that he’s still got ‘it.’ 

‘It’ being winning ways, the wow factor. If he loses we’ll hear more talk about stalking horses. So high stakes indeed for him. 

But how easily will it be. Not easy at all. Why? In one word UKIP. UKIP  have being making the running in recent polls.They now have to demonstrate that the force is still with them. In other words, momentum. 

A seat in Parliament would be a prize indeed. They’ll be obliged to push hard in the seat. With their leader, Nigel Farage as the candidate, who knows. By-elections are strange things.

Whether they win or not, they could certainly ‘do’ for the Tories. They chances are that they’ll eat away at the Tory vote. Enough to ensure the Liberal Democrats hold on to the seat? Maybe.

The real winner, Ed Miliband. All his party has to do is maintain their vote. Not even the most optimistic party supporter would expect them to win. But to bring back to the fold those that have in the past voted Liberal Democrat as a tactic to keep the Tories out would be a good result for his party. 

So we have the prospect of Liberal Democrat votes going to Labour. Tory votes going to UKIP. What an intriguing by-election prospect Huhne’s fall from grace will give us political anoraks.

Family bereavement

There will be no blog this week due to a family bereavement. Hopefully normal service will return next week.