The Bourne Doctrine

The Bourne Doctrine - this is a newly unveiled doctrine that is now to enter the political lexicon. Not surprising it was unveiled by the Welsh Conservative leader Nick Bourne.
But what is it, you may ask? It is the yardstick that the Conservative group in the Assembly will use to decide whether or not they will oppose the policies of the current Conservative/Liberal Democrat government.
And by what criteria do they decides whether to give a policy the thumbs up or down. Well, its whether or not Wales is been treated unfairly in comparison to the other countries of the United Kingdom.

 The Bourne doctrine in practice is seen by  the stand the Welsh Tories are taking in relationship to the threatened closure of the passport office in Newport. They  oppose  the closure, because none of the other countries are losing their office.
Again the doctrine comes into play in defence of S4C because they too are been threatened with cuts that only apply to Wales. So accordingly, the doctrine declares this to be unfair and directs that the Tory Group to oppose Jeremy Hunt's, the UK Culture Secretary, intended cuts.
Put simply, as long as all countries that form the United Kingdom are punished equally then the Tory group in Wales will not squawk. But oh, if only the world was that simple, but alas it is not.
All would be fine if the countries of the United Kingdom were the same, but they are not. England is a great deal richer and more prosperous than Wales.
Wales has a large number of jobs that are dependent on the public purse, England has a larger private sector than Wales. So a policy applied equally to all countries in these islands can have very unequal outcomes in the different countries.
The Bourne doctrine should be re-interpreted to read that the Welsh Conservative group will oppose all the unpopular decisions of the UK government this side of the Assembly elections. Its a bit like '1066 and all that', whatever we decide to do will be 'a good thing'.

Benefits who?

It's the small print that matters in agreements. Likewise it is often those passages in speeches that don't make the headlines that contain much the most interesting passages.

All the headlines of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's speech was on child benefit  being withdrawn from households paying tax at the  higher rate.  The Tory press went overboard on the matter. 'This was hitting the middle classes. It was unfair on stay at home mothers etc '

But George Osborne, in the very same speech,also announced a new £500 a week cap on welfare benefits.  In his words it was 'designed to ensure that work less households no longer receive thousands of pounds in benefits more than the average working family receives in pay.' 

Now because it has been a popular sport for some time to demonise those on benefits very little attention was paid to this aspect of his speech. 

The changes mean that household benefit payments will be capped at around £500 per week by the time of implementation in 2013.

This cap will apply to the combined income derived from benefits including Job seekers Allowance, Income Support, Employment Support Allowance, housing and council tax benefits, Child Benefit, and Carers Allowance. 

Now a cap of £500 may on the face of it seem quite high. But when one considers that often in some of our large cities, rents and therefore housing benefit payments  alone  may take the recipient above the £500 level. In such cases it will put many families into real difficulty and make it virtually impossible for them to stay in our biggest towns and cities.


So where will they go? At a guess they will be forced to look for areas with relatively cheap housing costs. 


In the eighties these were places like the North Wales coast and other parts of  rural Wales were renting houses were comparatively cheap.


At the time many Welsh politicians were angry at what they saw as the negative effect of these incomers. Often these politicians would be pressing for only local people to be housed. Such campaigns had limited success and went against the obligation of authorities to house those in greatest housing need.


It looks as if the Westminster coalition are about to repeat past mistakes. What was said in the speech would be better if  it was not acted upon.

'Yes' campaign moving towards the starting grid

It’s ‘Back to the Future’ in the approach to be adopted by those pushing for a positive vote in the referendum on greater law making powers for the National Assembly. It looks as if the campaign coordinator will be cabinet minister Leighton Andrews - who was secretary of the ‘yes’ campaign in the successful 1997 referendum.

Labour will play a lead role in the campaign with Rhodri Morgan being prominent in the activities.

When he retired as First Minister his popularity amongst the Welsh public was exceptionally high. Clearly, the hope is that  this high regard will transfer seamlessly to a 'yes' cross on the ballot paper.
It is understood that some of the other parties feel that by putting Labour in a lead role it will force them to get their own supporters to engage in the campaign. There is a feeling, especially in Plaid Cymru circles, that Labour were conspicuous by their absence in the 1997 campaign and are worried that history could repeat itself this time round.

Darren Hill a full time worker in the last campaign was seen huddled with Labour advisers this week discussing draft campaign material. It is uncertain whether these drafts will  be used in the campaign itself, but it does show that preparations are at an advanced stage.

The intention is that next week  all four parties will unveil the campaign strategy. But as to when the actual campaign itself will kick off is still up in the air. Why? Well, it’s all a matter of cash, your cash.

The Electoral Commission who are charged with using tax payers money to fund both the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ campaigns are unwilling to release public money until January. This has caused considerable annoyance and frustration to those eager to get the show on the road.

The latest ITV Wales and You GOV tracking poll showed two out of ten voters are still to make their minds up.It is likely that all four Assembly party leaders will press the Electoral Commission for a change of heart, so that campaigning can start sooner rather than later.There is a belief that a campaign of more than two months will be necessary to get the message across to the Welsh public. Consequently, all four  party leaders will press the Electoral Commission for a change of heart, so that campaigning can start sooner rather than later.

Comment:
Getting all four parties to sing from the same hymn sheet is no mean task. But this unity of purpose may still not be enough to persuade voters to go to the polling stations. The voters are likely to feel that they’ve been clobbered by politicians following the pubic expenditure cuts and may take the attitude 'a plague on all their houses.'
Politicians leading a campaign in such circumstances will be a definite - no, no.
So beware if you've got that ‘X’ factor and are Welsh. The chances are that you'll be wheeled out with other celebs to push for a 'yes' vote.

Cuts and the Welsh Conservatives

The most thankless job in politics is to be a Leader of the Opposition. This is true at any level of government. Be it local government, national government or in the case of Wales's Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly. At its best it’s a job that may sometime in the future lead you to government, at its worst it’s a spectator sport. You’re an onlooker as someone else is getting on with the real deal of government. Governments set the agenda and  oppositions are shaped by this.
To be an opposition leader in Wales whilst your party holds the reigns of power in Westminster could in good times be a bonus. But these are not good times. So the opposition in Wales face a double whammy, they have to respond not only to the agenda of the government in Wales but are also affected by the agenda of the government in Westminster.
As David Cameron so bluntly but succinctly said to the Welsh conservatives at his party conference ‘don’t expect a good result in the polls in the Assembly elections.’ Why? Because of Mr Cameron’s own actions.
Putting on a brave face, poor Nick Bourne, Conservative leader and Leader of HM Opposition in the Welsh Assembly muttered that it was all in the national interest. Referring as he was to the public expenditure cuts that will shortly be visited upon Wales.
Cuts may or may not be in the UK national interest, economists are still debating the issue and the jury is still out. Clearly, even Kenneth Clarke has his doubts about the Chancellor’s policy when he expressed concern about a double dip recession in the Observer newspaper. Be that as it may, for certain the ‘national’ interest does not equate with the Welsh ‘national’ interest.
The Welsh economy requires a different approach to that required to deal with the often overheated economy of London and the South East. So when the Chancellor pursues a policy of public expenditure cuts his policy will have a disproportionate effect on Wales. The Welsh economy is highly dependent on the public sector for work because of the weak state of the private sector. Put another way, if thousands of civil servants, council workers, health workers etc loose their jobs they are unlikely to find the private sector offer them a life line. Cuts in Wales will mean high unemployment and sceptre of the brightest and best leaving in search of work, weakening further the fragile economy of the country.
Politically, it’s a no brainer.  Both of the opposition parties in the Assembly are likely be punished in next May’s election.  Ironically, they become scapegoats for decisions taken by their colleagues elsewhere down the M4; decisions on which they will have had little influence. So they are the fall guys and face the wrath of the electorate for the policy of others. C’est la vie, as the French would say.
However, they do have a safety net, the Welsh Assembly’s electoral system. The full anger of the voters is ameliorated by the regional list system which may compensate them in part for the seats that they are likely to loose in the constituency elections. Consequently, it is unlikely that either of the opposition parties in the Assembly will suffer a wipe out. But they will be weakened.
And there in lies the rub. If the Conservative party does loose ground and it would be a brave man that would not bet on that outcome. It won’t be Mr Cameron that will be blamed but Mr Bourne.
If Labour do particularly well they may even have a majority so that they can rule alone. Ieuan Wyn Jones may yet again become the Leader of the Opposition.  So where does that leave Nick Bourne, well theoretically where he has been for most of the life of the Assembly as leader of the Conservative group in Wales and the Welsh Conservative leader. But that is unlikely to happen. Why? The young Turks that surround him in the Conservative group in the Assembly will not hesitate to use their knifes and trigger an election. Unfair, yes, but who ever said that politics was ever fair?

Latest poll results for Wales

Ed Miliband has been given a real lift in the latest ITV Wales YouGov tracking poll. Labour have leaped ahead by 5 per cent within the last Month. The poll has been conducted this week a few days since Ed Miliband was elected leader.

Labour have gained 12 per cent since the last Assembly elections. If this poll was replicated in next year’s Assembly elections, they would be heading for a majority over all the other parties.
Plaid Cymru with 19 per cent must feel disappointed for they fall 3 per cent behind the Tories. This is the first time since ITV Wales have been tracking the parties, that this has happened. Their status as the second largest party in the Assembly could be in jeopardy if this is the result next May.
The Conservatives have not moved in the polls since August with 22 per cent, the same percentage figure as they gained in the last Assembly elections.
The Liberal Democrats are still under performing with just 11 per cent, well below the 20 per cent they gained in May and the 15 per cent they gained in the last Assembly elections.
It is clear that both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats as junior partners in their respective coalitions both in Cardiff Bay and Westminster are been squeezed in the polls.
Of course the Assembly has a PR element and their is a top up from the regional lists. The polling results in the regions show some slight variations from the constituency poll. Consequently  translating the results of the polls into seats is not a straight forward exercise and should be done with caution.
The ‘yes’ campaigners can take some heart from the poll they still have a 19 per cent lead on the ‘no’ side. Twenty per cent of the population have still to make their minds up on the issue. This must be a cause of some concern to those that want a positive result.
Finally, should it be Ed or Dave, well on the poll evidence Ed was the right choice for Wales.
A summary of the poll is as follows:-

ITV WALES YOUGOV TRACKING POLL.

Results of poll carried out 27th to 29th September 2010. sample size: 1088. This month’s poll includes the usual tracking questions plus a one-off question on the Labour party’s choice of new leader.

ASSEMBLY VOTING INTENTION
(compared with 2007 election and previous polls)
If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?



           2007 Result    May 2010 Poll   June Poll  July Poll  Aug Poll  Sept Poll
Labour          32%      32%                  42%        40%         39%       44%
Plaid Cymru  22%      22%                  20%         22%        23%       19%
Conservative 22%      21%                  19%         20%        22%        22%
Liberal Dem  15%      20%                  12%         13%        10%        11%
Others             8%       5%                     6%          5%          6%          5%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?
           2007 Result     May 2010 Poll   June Poll    July Poll  Aug Poll  Sept Poll
Labour          30%       30%                  40%          37%          39%      41%
Plaid Cymru   21%      21%                  19%          20%          23%      19%
Conservative  22%      21%                  20%          20%          21%      20%
Liberal Dem   12%      18%                  12%          14%            9%      12%
Others            16%        9%                   9%            8%             8%       8%

REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTION

(compared with previous polls).
If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

                 April 2010 Poll      June Poll      July Poll      August Poll      September Poll
Yes                            49%             55%           48%                48%                      49%
No                             33%             28%           34%                32%                      30%
Don’t Know/              18%             17%           19%                21%                      20%
Wouldn’t Vote

This Saturday, the Labour party elected Ed Miliband as its leader, ahead of his older brother, David. Which one of the Miliband brothers would have made you more likely to vote for the Labour party at future elections?
More likely with Ed Miliband as leader 13%
Would have been more likely if David Miliband was leader 9%
I would vote Labour anyway 24%
I would not vote Labour anyway 40%
Don’t know 15%

Pick and mix?

Assembly elections will soon be with us. The parties will be led to the fray by the existing party leaders. Some of them may be secretly hoping that their parties do less well than they would ever publicly admit to.

For in the strange world of Assembly elections political advantage can as often rest on your party doing badly as your party having winning ways. 

Would Alun Michael have been Wales’s First Secretary if Labour had won a few more seats in the West of Wales in that first Assembly election. Some in his own party might have wished for better results  in that part of the world so that Rhodri Morgan could have claimed the crown that many thought should have been rightfully his a bit earlier.

And so with Nick Bourne, the Conservative party leader in Wales. He holds his seat by virtue of having top place for his party on the Mid and West Wales regional list. Now for him to keep his place and be re-elected, the Conservatives must not win anymore gains the constituencies in that region. 

Up until 2006, it was possible for candidates to put their names on both their parties regional list as well as fight a constituency, indeed Nick Bourne was in such a position fighting the Brecon and Radnor constituency as well as topping the Mid and West Wales list. 

But Labour put a stop to the practice. They claimed it wasn’t right for a candidate to be rejected by the electors in a constituency and then arrive at the Assembly by virtue of the regional list. The poor electors were confused and did not like it, argued Labour. Although it was hard to find an elector that cared a fig. 

However, Peter Hain  as always, ever wishing to accommodate, put a clause in the last Government of Wales Act 2006 to stop candidates hedging their bets by fighting in both constituencies and on lists. 

However, back to the matter in hand, it is surely very much in Nick Bourne’s personal interest that Kirsty Williams the Liberal Democrat leader retains her Brecon and Radnorshire seat and that the neighbouring Montgomeryshire seat does not follow the Westminster result and become a Tory gain.

Of course, Kirsty Williams must also be hoping that Nick Bourne gets his wishes for if the Tories were to gain new seats in the region these would more than likely be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. 

It is not too far fetched to envisage both parties having to look for new leaders after the Assembly elections. 

Of course, there is a solution - an understanding between the two parties. 

Could the love-in between the two parties that form the coalition in Westminster be replicated in Wales? It could be in both parties interest. 

If the ITVWales YouGov polls are to be believed the Liberal Democrat vote in Wales has collapsed. So it certainly would be helpful to them if the Conservatives could give them a clear run in some seats - Cardiff Central comes to mind. So a pact between the parties on the ground might help both parties. 

And such an understanding could ward off a potential embarrassment for both parties - losing their leaders. Who in their parties could ConDem such a marriage?

Referendum campaign poised to tee off

A date’s been set, and it looks as if that wily operator Cheryl Gillan the Secretary of States, whose call it is, agrees. So the civil partnership agreed between the political parties in the Assembly will begin. 

A ‘yes’ campaign organised by all the political parties in the Assembly will be teeing off when the last putt of the Ryder cup is holed.

Unlike last time, none of Wales’s main political parties will be urging a ‘no’ vote. All will be singing from the same hymn book on this.

Even the Conservatives, who were part of the ‘no’ campaign last time are free to campaign as they wish. However, the Conservative Members of the Assembly are all likely to be prominent in the ‘yes’ campaign.

Welsh Conservative leader, Nick Bourne, a leading member of the ‘no’ campaign last time, has had a Damascus type conversion, seen the error of his previous ways, and is now poised with all the enthusiasm of the newly converted, to actively campaign for a stronger devolved institution in Cardiff Bay.

Although no one can question Carwyn Jones’s devolution credentials and he claims that “Welsh Labour is proud of our commitment to devolution. We delivered a referendum to establish the Assembly back in 1999 and in 2006 we created the legislation which has paved the way for today’s announcement. A positive outcome for the referendum will mean the Assembly can make laws for the people of Wales more efficiently and in a more cost effective manner.”

However, many within his party may not be as enthusiastic about the onward march of devolution. Some are unreconstructed unionists. This small rump may actively oppose a ‘yes’ vote.  They live in the forlorn hope that a win for the ‘no’ camp will seriously de-rail devolution. A lost referendum may provide the springboard to a campaign that could eventually lead to the scrapping of the Assembly itself.
The setting of the date of the referendum before the end of this Assembly term vindicates Plaid Cymru leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones's, political stance. He could have been the First Minister of a rainbow coalition of Conservatives, Plaid and Liberal Democrats but instead he chose to get into bed with Labour.

He calculated that only  Labour  could deliver the required two thirds vote of assembly members required to trigger a referendum on more powers.

As he said, “This is an important and symbolic step in the process of arranging the referendum and it clearly signals that the countdown to the vote is well underway.  I’m proud that Plaid in government has realised this hugely important commitment to bring about this referendum.  The current system is slow, cumbersome, and highly bureaucratic and it needs to be changed.  We’re committed to taking action to bring about real change and real improvements.”

According to recent opinion polls the ‘yes’ vote are likely to have a majority. But people tend to punish politicians if they are unhappy. The question is will they use the referendum on devolution as a vehicle for their dissatisfaction. Because dissatisfied they surely will be, when the comprehensive spending review cuts bite.