Carwyn's Christmas project.

Whilst Wales was hearing about the intention to nationalise an airport a report was produced on a British Bill of Rights. Its implications for the rights of Welsh people might be profound.

Mr Cameron established a Commission to appease many in the Conservative ranks that were hostile towards the European convention on human rights and the Human Rights Act.  

Not to put to fine a point on it there are many his parties that want nothing to do with human rights legislation at all. No votes for prisoners. Lets send people abroad to be tortured without due process etc. You get the agenda.

Many in Wales thought that looking at introducing a Bill of Rights for the UK was misconceived and might undermine devolved government. To produce it at a time Wales is beginning to debate its place in the Union and Scotland is due to hold a referendum, shows particular bad timing.

The truth of the matter is that it was an English problem, indeed a Tory backwoodsman problem that Cameron faced. There was little or no call for a UK Bill of Rights from Wales or Scotland. 

It could be argued that the protection of rights  should be as much a matter for the Welsh Assembly as for the UK Parliament. 

A case certainly could be made for a Welsh Bill of Rights.  After all Wales had its own criminal system until the Statute of Rhuddlan and civil law lasted until the times of Henry V111. 

So when the English want to base their own human rights on the heritage from Magna Carta we too have a heritage that we can base our own Rights legislation on. After all enacting a bill of rights in Wales would be an opportunity to articulate the indigenous traditions of Wales’s very own legal and cultural systems.

After all as inhabitants of the new Wales we need rights and freedoms more closely attuned to our national circumstances. 

It ought to be made clear to the UK government that any changes to the current framework of human rights legislation as they might affect Wales should be a matter solely for the Welsh Government and National Assembly. 

There is a real danger that if Westminster decided to go ahead and introduce a UK Bill of Rights Wales’s current constitutional position might be seriously undermined.

The call by Carwyn Jones for a Constitutional Convention has been steadfastly ignored by David Cameron. 

In such circumstances Carwyn Jones should take use the Yule tide break  to good effect. Rather than an anodyne new year messages he should spend his Christmas drafting a new bill of rights for Wales. After all he is a lawyer. So forget Mr Cameron and Sir Leigh Lewis’s commission let our First Minister be the new Hywel Dda and draft our own Bill of Rights

When Wales recovers from its binge what better way to drive away the hangovers than to discuss what rights the people of Wales should have.

Meanwhile dear reader have a good Christmas. The blog will be back in January.

Council tax debacle over

Assembly Members came back from their Christmas holidays to finally pass legislation to enable people to continue to receive council tax benefit after next March. 

Responsibility for this means tested scheme is being transferred from the Westminster government to the Welsh Government.

The original attempt to pass the regulations fell because the Welsh government failed to deliver their regulations in time for the National Assembly to properly supervise them. (see previous blog “No way to run a whelk stall.”)

What seems to have been forgotten in the political shenanigans is that in the transfer process, the Westminster government cut the budget by 10%. 

330,000 households in Wales who receive the benefit will be, on average, £67 worse off. Many, 230,000 to be precise, will also have to pay council tax for the first time.

Unlike, Scotland who are making up the difference, the Welsh government says it cannot afford to make up the gap. Although they seem to have cash to buy an airport.

Labour won the vote after First Minister Carwyn Jones agreed with Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats a “sunset clause” allowing the assembly to revisit the regulations in a year's time.

It was precisely this assurance that the opposition parties wanted last time the regulations were discussed but at that time government refused to do a deal.

Government have finally got their way. It  was passed without AMs having even to bother their pretty little heads with a vote, as there weren't any objections.



But it could all have been handled better. It's no exaggeration to say that government made a bit of a pig’s ear in resolving the matter.

Questions must surely be asked about the competence of the Local Government Minister, Carl Sargeant and his handling of the issue. 

Clause four revisited.

Public Ownership. Who ever thought that the word would be used in the context of the Welsh government. But this is precisely what Carwyn Jones announced in the case of Cardiff airport. Forget Welsh Labour or New Labour this is back to very old Labour and it's belief in nationalisation. 

The Welsh Government intend to take Cardiff-Wales International into state ownership. That is, of course, if the price is right. 

In making the announcement he said the usual caveats that it was “subject to the satisfactory completion of financial, legal and value for money considerations, the Welsh Government may then proceed towards a purchase of the airport.”

But the calling of the press conference and making the announcement public is a sure sign that the deal is virtually in the bag. What Jones refused to say is what he’s paying for it, claiming commercial confidentiality.

Carwyn Jones has form for criticising the airport. It’s been a theme of his that the airport has been letting down the Welsh economy. It’s not fit for purpose. Blaming it all on the owners. Clearly, the owners were fed up with his bellyaching and have said to him if you think you can do better take it off our hands for a price. 

The responsibility will now be Carwyn Jones’s If it doesn’t work now it will be government’s fault. Government hope to make a go of it and return a profit to government coffers. But  name me a government that has not expressed optimism when embarking on such ventures. 

It is now certain that the First Minister will be campaigning hard to get control on the taxes on air passengers so that he can use the levy to entice new airlines into Cardiff. The Silk Commission has already recommended that the Welsh government be given responsibility for tax on long haul flights, but the First Minister is very eager to get his hands on the powers for short haul as well. By so doing he can undercut other airports and bag a few budget airlines. 

He even went so far as to talk about Cardiff being developed as London’s Terminal 6 with fast train links being developed into London.

The Business Minister Edwina Hart said that “The message from business leaders and tourism operators across Wales is clear; strong, international transport links are vital to our prosperity, and key to future economic growth.

“Subject to satisfactory due diligence, our investment in Cardiff Airport has the potential to create many exciting possibilities for the Welsh economy – boosting opportunities for international trade, and helping to increase visitor numbers to Wales.”

The  Conservative leader Andrew R T Davies needed convincing that it was a good move. He said  “The First Minister will have to work very hard to convince us that this move will represent value for tax-payer money and, equally important, deliver the improvements that are needed.”

Plaid Cymru welcomed the move and pointed out that they’ve been wanting the government to take the airport over for sometime.

The public however, will be sceptical that buying an airport is the best use of public money at a time when many are facing real hardship as essential public services  and benefits are being cut. Many will see their incomes take such a dip that the last thing they’ll be thinking of is a foreign holiday and the use of Cardiff airport.

As Nye Bevan said "Socialism is the language of priorities." Is an airport the highest priority in these straightened times?

Skivers and shirkers

Workers or shirkers and strivers and skivers. The Chancellor would have us believe that the nation can be divided into these simple categories. Oh, if life was only so simple. 

With the help of his chums in the right wing press everyone claiming any benefit of any kind falls into the category of a shirker or a skiver. Those of us who don’t are obviously strivers. 

Its the resurrection in modern parlance of the deserving and undeserving poor. The only difference is the “deserving” poor are also being hard hit by the Chancellor and his cuts.

The sad thing is that after years of stigmatising benefit claimants as cheats, layabouts and work shy, a large swathe of the country has swallowed the line. 

Because mud sticks, political capital can be made of it. And this is precisely what the Chancellor is setting out to do. 

In the new year the government will introduce a welfare uprating bill. Why precisely such a bill is needed has never being explained. Cuts in welfare payments of every kind can happen under current legislation.  There is no practical need for the bill. 

But young George’s cunning little plan, in introducing the bill, is to wrong foot Labour. To paint them as being the friends of the skivers and the shirkers and by implication against the honest working man and women. 

Politics has come to a sorry state that political advantage can be made by hitting the poor and disadvantaged. 

So a bill is about to be introduced, not to make law but to discomfort the Leader of the Opposition. So if Miliband stands up for the claimants he can be branded the friend of the skivers and the feckless. What a victory for the government. 

The fact that the income of the country’s poorest people will be cut for the first time in over 80 years is not a cause of concern but a cause for gloating and party politics. 

Even people in his own party want Miliband to go along with Osborne’s nasty little plan.  Jacqui Smith, the former disgraced Home Secretary, commenting on an article in last Sunday’s “Observer” said “Within the article a ‘senior Labour figure’ suggested that there was a ‘caucus of “new Labour” figures believing it will be politically suicidal to leave the party open to charges that it sides with ‘scroungers’ and is in denial over the need to cut the benefits bill’. I’m sure this wasn’t meant as a good thing by the ‘senior Labour figure’, but frankly you can count me into this ‘caucus’.”

If Labour’s Miliband don’t stand-up for those affected, who will? If Mr Cameron wishes to turn his back on the social justice agenda he set himself when Leader of the Opposition it doesn’t mean that the current one should. 

The facts are that the cuts fall more on those in work than those out of work. Many of those in work get paid so little, not even a living wage. Instead of the employers paying, working tax credit pays. To the tune of billions of pounds. So cuts to these will affect the “workers” and the “strivers.”

In his autumn statement the Chancellor declared his intention of breaking the historic link between the cost of renting and housing benefits. After next April’s 2..2% increase it will be capped at 1% in subsequent years. 

One in five households rely on housing benefits to keep them in homes and 87% of these are low and middle income families and pensioners. Neither “skivers” nor “shrikers.”

The truth is that many need the State’s help to make ends meet.  The low paid economy that is the Britain of today makes life a struggle to many. Cutting their living standards further will push many more to the food banks and the soup kitchen’s and the homeless charities. 

Can such a society be described as civilised? Miliband should stand his ground both to government and those throwbacks from New Labour that are urging him to turn his back on those in real need.

Home truths

Wales is still a nation of homeowners, even more so than England, according to the census. The explanation, as a nation we’re a lot older than England and have made those life long purchases in better economic times. 


For those that like the facts in Wales 879,000(67%) of the population own their home as opposed to 14.0 million (63%) in England. 

The younger generation are finding it difficult to copy their parents and access ownership. 
Short term contracts, low wages and high levels of youth unemployment make getting a mortgage particularly difficult. 

Traditionally, such groups would look for a council house. But now that’s no longer an option.

In the 2001 census 166,000(14%) of the population rented from the council. Today, the figure has declined to 128,000(10%).  

So where are today’s generation finding homes? Well, in the private sector. This sector has grown five percentage points. Now 165,000(13%) homes are rented from private landlords.

With the changes that are happening to housing benefit there is every likelihood that many living in this sector will not be able to pay their rents, and many will find themselves in great difficulty. 

You don't have to be Mystic Meg to predict that next year will see homelessness on the increase as benefit cuts bite. If rents are unpaid, eviction follow. Result, homelessness.

A bleak new year beckons many.  

Welsh language decline

Lies, damned lies and statistics is often used to describe the use of numbers to boister weak arguments. But not the census, the figures are based on all our returns. So we get a snapshot of Wales based on the forms filled on census day.

And what does it show? Well to misquote a Dylan song, Wales is achanging. The Wales of Welsh speaking chapel goers is on the way out and is being replaced by an English speaking no religion country.

Why the change you may ask? Well its because more people live in this land called Wales. There’s more of us. 3.1 million and increase of 153,000, this 5% increase is the highest increase since 1951. 

Not that we’re enjoying ourselves, well maybe we are, but we’re not breeding more. No, not a bit. Most of the growth, 90 per cent to be exact, was from people coming into the country from other parts of the UK and abroad. 

So there are more coming in from outside and in the main they’re English speakers.  It’s always dangerous with statistics to explain cause and effect, but the numbers of incomers undoubtedly will not have helped the cause of the Welsh language.

After a slight increase in 2001 the number of people who speak Welsh has fallen in the past 10 years from 20.8% to 19%. In 2001 there were 582,000 now there are 562,000. A hundred year ago in 1911, there were almost a million speaking the language. 

The language has even become a minority language in what were once heartland counties for the Welsh, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion.

Many thought that the growth in Welsh medium education  and the migration from Welsh speaking Wales would see an increase in language use in Cardiff and some of the valleys in south east wales. Not so. 

Although there was an increase in actual numbers in Cardiff (4,231) Caerffili (1014) and Monmouth (1,092) and even the Vale of Glamorgan (195) because of the increase in the population the proportions speaking Welsh remain the same.  

The only county in the whole of Wales to show a modest growth is arguable the most English and wasn’t even part of Wales for years, Monmouth. They saw an 0.6% increase, not much granted, but increase nevertheless.

The Welsh language  has seen a decline but nothing on the scale of those in Wales that describe themselves as Christians.  There has been a drop of 14% since 2001. Only 1.76 million(58%) describe themselves as such. Almost a third of the population say that they have ‘no religion.' Higher in Wales than any part of England. 

The churches face a bleak future indeed and they need to get their act together if they are going to stop the rot. 

The statistics should be a wake up call for those concerned about the language. They should be asking serious questions about the prioriites. Have they been to concerned about token issues and not concerned about measures that will really make a difference.

Why are kids that go to Welsh language schools so reluctant to speak the language with their peers? Why is the language not seen as hip and pupils don’t see it as cool to speak it socially? Have activists been to concerned about status and too little concerned about daily use of the language? How many people really look at the minutes of the Assembly or Councils in any language? Would the money spent on these, not be put to better use?  

Our broadcasters should take a long hard look and ask why they don’t seem to appeal to our young people. 

The census  is a wakeup call to both  civil and religious Wales. More of the same just won’t do.

More on the other statistics in tomorrows blog.

In the bleak midwinter

Like a Victorian undertaker looking forward to Winter. That’s how an esteemed colleague described a tweet of mine on Saturday when I warned about the possibility of a triple dip recession . 

Vindication came my way on Sunday when no other that the Business Secretary, Vince Cable raised the very same possibility.

Why did I venture such a view? Simple. If North sea oil and factory production is down, indeed the lowest it’s been for twenty years, its not rocket science to predict that there’s a fair chance that the economy will continue its downward spiral. 

Not much of what George Osborne announced in his Autumn statement is likely to change the prognoses.

The causes of my doom laden prediction are two fold. The lack of home produced demand, much of which can be blamed on Mr Osborne’s austerity programme. But the next factor can be blamed on those pesky Europeans. Their austerity programme has seen a lack of growth in the euro zone. This of course is where the UK sells most of its goods. So no growth in our biggest export market.

That powerhouse of economic activity in Europe, Germany,  and the biggest economy in the single-currency area, saw output from its factories drop by 2.4% in September.

This news from Europe and the gloomy news from industry  just follows a run of poor economic data for services, construction and trade. So however you look at it, it just ain’t good news.  

And just as night follows day, poor production targets eventually means less jobs. Cue stage right the IPPR think tank.

IPPR have estimated that an extra 200,000 people in Britain will be without a job by this time next year. They also reckon that it will be worse for the youngsters, with youth unemployment set to rise above a million.

The think tank’s analysis is based on the pattern of the increase in 2011, a period of similar labour market change.  It shows that a further 86,000 under-25s may join the dole queues next year. Long-term unemployment could rise by 32,000 to a total of 926,000. A further 47,000 people over 50 may also become unemployed.

With a hard winter, benefit cuts and lots out of work many will struggle to survive. 

My friend may have hit the nail on its head. The death business may well see the only economic growth activity in the next few months. A word to the wise forget my horse racing tips,  put your cash into shares in funeral service firms.