Wednesday, 2 March 2011

How will they vote?

All the polls indicate that the ‘yes’ side  are heading for a decisive win when Wales votes tomorrow.

The latest poll conducted by ITV Wales/YouGov indicates that six out of every ten of the Welsh electorate are set to vote for a change in the way Welsh laws are passed. 
If the polls are right, voters no longer want Westminster interfering in the Welsh law making process. They want the Assembly to have sole charge of law making areas such as health, housing and education.
All four parties represented in the Assembly have been campaigning for these new powers. This unusual degree of unanimity between the parties seems to have gone down well with the voters. 
The ‘yes’ side has increased its poll ratings as the campaign was conducted. The gap between ‘yes’ and ‘no’ has remained static since there has been a regular test of opinions.
When the don’t knows and those not intending voting are taken out of the results the ‘yes’ side 
steam ahead. The number of those that are unsure or don’t intend voting has halved since January. 
There  still remains a worry by the “yes’ side that the commanding lead they have in the polls might make some complacent and decide not to turn out to vote on the day.

Details of the poll are produced below.

Results of poll carried out 24th February to 1st March 2011. Sample size: 
(compared with January’s poll and the poll carried out for Y Byd ar Bedwar 21-23 February. Figures are weighted for likelihood to vote).
If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?
                                Jan 26th        Feb 23rd              March 2nd 
Yes                              49%                 58%                 61%
No                                26%                 29%                 28%
Don’t Know/                 26%                 13%                 12%
Wouldn’t Vote   
With Don’t Know/Won’t vote excluded:
                               Feb 23rd           March 2nd 
Yes                         67%                      69%
No                           33%                      31%  


  1. By this time tomorrow we should know for certain.

    One Way or another it will be a different Wales, a new dawn or a new dusk?

  2. Gareth,

    Do you know if the you gov poll asked about party id? Wouldn't blame ITV for holding that segment back until after today, but am curious.