Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Plaid Cymru: Drop in the polls

The latest ITV Wales/YouGov survey shows a further drop in the poll for Plaid Cymru. They drop another 2 percentage points in the polls. 

The fieldwork for the poll was done after Plaid's conference. It is usual for parties to have a bounce immediately after their conferences this doesn't seem to have happened for Plaid Cymru. 

A downward trend is the last thing a party wants as they approach a general election. They have fallen 4 percentage points since January and 5 percentage points since the last Assembly election.

A similar drop is also shown in the regional list.These figures make some of their existing seats very vulnerable.

Their senior partners in Government continue to do well. Labour are on 47 pre cent. They have been in the high 40's most of the year and is a considerable improvement on the last Assembly election were they only got 32 percent. These figures point to them gaining a majority of members and opens up the prospect of them being able to govern alone after May. 

The Conservatives continue to hover around the lower 20s, a figure that broadly reflects their traditional vote in Wales. But on these figures they are likely to overtake Plaid Cymru as the second largest party and would give them the status of their leader being Leader of the Opposition.

Liberal Democrats continue to be in single figures and if these figures were replicated on election day they can expect a drop from their current six Assembly Members. It even makes their leader Kirsty Williams vulnerable in her  Brecon and Radnor heartland.


It is likely that this poll reflects more the voters reaction to what is happening in Westminster than any action or non-action by the parties in Wales. Consequently, Labour are seen as the alternative to the Conservative led coalition in Westminster and have benefited from the current antipathy to the UK government. The Liberal Democrats have been particularly punished by the Welsh electorate for what is seen as a betrayal of their radical tradition in propping up the Tories.

Plaid Cymru must be particularly worried because they always do well when Labour form the government in Westminster and the converse is also true - a situation likely to be the case for the next five years at least. 

Of course, election campaigns can shift  opinions. But In Wales parties suffer the disadvantage that many people receive their news from a media that give little or no coverage to Welsh politics. So undoubtedly, the campaign that is about to be embarked on, suffers from this disadvantage. The effect will probably mean the campaign will only have a marginal influence if at all on many Welsh voters, so they will vote if vote they do on their attitudes to the Westminster Parliament rather than the Assembly and its work.

The poll results are published below.

ITV Wales/YouGov The sample was 1117, the fieldwork 28th to 30th March. We released the figures on our 13.55 news bulletin.  

                                          May 2007    Jan 2011   4-8 March 2011   28-30 March 2011
Constituency vote

Labour                                32%             45%           48%                 47%

Conservative                       22%             21%           20%                 21%

Plaid Cymru                        22%              21%          19%                  17%

Lib Dem                             15%                7%            7%                    8%

Others                                 8%                6%            7%                    6% 

Regional vote

Labour                                30%               41%          45%                 45% 

Conservative                       22%               20%          20%                 20%

Plaid Cymru                         21%               21%          18%                16%

Lib Dem                              12%                 8%            5%                  8%

UKIP                                    4%                 4%            5%                  6%

Green                                   4%                  2%           4%                  2%

Others                                  8%                  4%           2%                  2% 


  1. It really is disheartening seeing Labour do so well when one remember that absolute mess they left the UK in after their term in office. That's on the UK level which you say they good fortune is based upon. Then in Wales, just look at what they've achieved in education for starters. Truly depressing.

  2. I think the Welsh voters are a lot more Savvy and sophisticated then mostly voting on Westminster issues.

  3. we seem to forget at UK level as well, how many million immigrants Labour deliberately let in and how they bankrupted the economy, not to mention the illegal wars.

  4. Or, maybe the Welsh people believe that Labour is the best party for Wales. Which it is. Under Welsh Labour we have seen free prescriptions, communities regenerated, we have seen socially progressive politics brough to the forefront of Wales, we have seen a government that really does care about people and really cares about the most Vulnerable people.

    This poll shows that the Welsh people are sensible and are voting for the best party for Wales.