Thursday, 10 March 2011

Latest Poll results

Labour have increased their lead in the ITVWales/YouGov post. They have increased their lead by 3 percentage points from January. The poll taken since the historic devolution poll of last week show Labour getting a bounce from those results.

Plaid Cymru must be disappointed with their 19 per cent score. They have again fallen behind the Conservatives who are on 20 per cent.

Plaid Cymru who insisted that a referendum on more law making powers should be taken before the May Assembly elections are not seemingly been rewarded by the electorate for their stance.

Peter Hain the shadow Secretary of State was quick off the mark to claim credit for Labour's improvement at the expense of Plaid and an indirect dig at Carwyn Jones.

As he claimed in his tweet
"YouGov poll this wk: Lab+3 PC-2 So much for those who thought attacking Plaid would backfire.On the contrary, it’s hurting them and helping us."

Labour since last Friday's referendum have been pushing the line that there is no longer a role for Plaid Cymru now that the Assembly has law making powers. Plaid Cymru will have to address this issue in order to mitigate potential losses in May's elections.

Plaid Cymru have always tended to do better when Labour are doing badly and it looks as if the reverse is also true and Plaid are suffering because of the rise in the UK vote for Labour.

The single figure poll ratings continue for the Liberal Democrats who are been challenged by UKIP and the Greens. Their decision to go into bed with the Conservatives at Westminster is clearly causing the Welsh electorate to turn their backs on them.

The Liberal Democrats seem to be doing a great deal worse in Wales than in the UK as a whole where YouGov's poll for the Sun show the following top line figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, Lib Dem 9%.

Seat Prediction
Translating these results into seats carries the usual health warning. But Labour would almost certainly have an overall majority on these figures with a healthy 33 mainly at Plaid's expense. Plaid Cymru would go down to 10 from the 15 seats they won last time[ although they only have 14 now because of a defection to the Conservatives]

The Conservatives would go up two to 14.

The Liberal Democrats on this poll would likely lose all their list seats but may hold their constituency seats. If they lost a constituency the swings and roundabout effect would mean that they would make it up on the list. But their representation in the Assembly could be halved from 6 to 3. 

Other pollster's prediction
Dr Denis Balsom's predictions for ITV Wales differ from the above. He has Labour  32 (26), Conservatives 13 (12), Plaid Cymru 11(15), Liberal Democrats 3 (6) and either UKIP or the Greens winning a regional list seat(1)
The number in brackets is the number of seats each party held after the last Assembly elections in May 2007. 
The (1) indicates a seat held by Independant  Trish Law. But with her standing down the seat of Blaenau Gwent is likely to revert back to Labour.

ITV's results are published below 
in full.

                                           May 2007         Jan 2011         March 2011
Constituency vote

Labour                                          32%                 45%                  48%

Conservative                                 22%                 21%                  20% 

Plaid Cymru                                  22%                 21%                  19%

Lib Dem                                       15%                   7%                     7%

Others                                           8%                   6%                     7% 

Regional vote

Labour                                         30%                  41%                   45%

Conservative                                22%                  20%                   20%

Plaid Cymru                                 21%                   21%                  18%

Lib Dem                                       12%                    8%                    5%

UKIP                                             4%                    4%                    5%

Green                                            4%                    2%                    4%

Others                                           8%                     4%                   2%

1 comment:

  1. If true, this poll is frightening.

    Look at the mess the Labour government have left us in!

    The current government are clearly very unpopular. But voting in a government who have a track record of increasing the country's financial deficit is surely only going to lead to short term wins but long term pain.