Polls predict Labour majority

Labour are riding high in Wales according to the latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales. In the constituencies, of those polled, half have indicated that they would vote Labour. This is up 8% from the Assembly elections.

The polls make grim reading for the Conservatives. They go down 6% from the nearly 25% at the election that helped them overtake Plaid Cymru to become the official opposition in the Assembly. 

On this performance they would go back to being the third party again. On the same number of seats as UKIP at 5 each.

Andrew RT Davies’s position as Conservative leader is already precarious. There are Tory Assembly members that would dearly like to see the back of him as leader. 

The would be assassins within his group will almost certainly use this poll as a justification when they eventually plunge the knife. 

By default Leanne Wood, Plaid Cymru, would become Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly. 

Whilst this might give some comfort to the party, the polls themselves offer little indication that their new leader is making much of an impact. 

Indeed they have lost ground from the Assembly election with their vote slipping back another 2% they are down to 17%. But the vagaries of the PR system and Tory vote hemorrhaging to UKIP gives them a substantial lead in seats over the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats slip even further back they are now only on 7%, a drop of 4%.

However it is on the regional lists and voters intentions that the poll is most revealing of the current state of public opinion and their voting intentions.

Here the big news story is UKIP. The leap into third place. The bounce up to 12%, beating the Tories who are on 11% and the Liberal Democrats at 8%. 

Indeed the Greens are beginning to breath down the neck of the Liberal Democrats with their 7% which shows a 4% increase from their vote in the Assembly elections.

When asked how people would vote in a general election Labour do even better. In that election they would command 54% of the Welsh vote. 

In UK polling, Labour are averaging about 42% which again shows Wales is very fertile territory for Labour. 

The recent results of both Welsh and UK polls have buoyed up Ed Miliband’s position within his party.

Despite a very hesitant start he has being landing his punches of late and as a consequence has silenced his critics on the Labour benches. These successes seem also to be reflected in the polls. Or perhaps, which is more likely to be the case, the coalition government in Westminster has lost the plot. 

What does the vote mean in seats? According to Dr Dennis Balsom ITV’s expert analysis: 

Labour 33 (up 3) 

Plaid Cymru 13 (up 2)

UKIP 5 (up 5) 

Conservatives 5 (down 9)

Liberal Democrats (down 1)

If UKIP do gain seats in the Assembly, the dynamics will be interesting, as they are a political party that want the place scrapped. 

The results in full are:

Constituency

• Labour 50% (up 8%)
• Conservatives 19% (down 6%)
• Plaid Cymru 17% (down 2%)
• Liberal Democrats 7% (down 4%)
• Others 8% (up 5%)

Regional list

• Labour 35% (down 2%)
• Plaid Cymru 20% (up 2%)
• UKIP 12% (up 7%)
• Conservatives 11% (down 12%)
• Liberal Democrats 8% (no change)
• Greens 7% (up 4%)
• Others 6% (no change)

Westminster election intentions

• Labour 54% (up 18%)
• Conservatives 23% (down 3%)
• Plaid Cymru 10% (down 1%)
• Liberal Democrats 4% (down 16%)
• Others 9% (up 3%)