Monday, 30 July 2012

Tory members have question mark about PM

It’s a sure sign that the skids are under a leader when polls are conducted on your likely successor. So this weekend made difficult reading for David Cameron. 
Boris “ Mayor of London” Johnson according to yesterday’s Independent  is the favourite amongst grass root Tories to succeed Cameron. 
About a third of Tory activists want him in contrast to only a quarter wanting his nearest rival William Hague. 
George Osborne gets 2%. This is such a fall from grace for the man that was regarded as the Prime Minister in waiting. A reflection that even Tory members don’t think he now cuts the mustard.
But, perhaps, of greater worry to the PM is the fact that less than half of the members want him to lead them into the general election. Indeed they don’t rate the party’s chances of retaining power after the next election.
Now when party activists don’t think their party will win, it’s sure sign that the party is in serious difficulties. 
And little wonder. 
The economic strategy of the government is looking very threadbare. There is little sign of recovery. Indeed, the opposite, the economy continues in a downward spiral.
Ed Miliband is beginning to gain in confidence and is often getting under Cameron’s skin in their weekly exchanges at the Commons. The coalition is looking increasingly fragile with many Tory backbenchers working for its demise.
Unless the economy recovers, and there is no sign of that happening, the Prime Minister looks increasingly vulnerable.
Unlike Labour, the Conservatives have a ruthless streak. They’ll not hesitate to put the knife in. There is no way that they’ll not deal with a leader that’s leading them to defeat. 
Many saw what happened to Labour when the party prevaricated and failed to remove Gordon Brown. Election defeat. The Tories won’t let this happen to them.
It must be some comfort to Cameron that Boris’s not in the Commons and his term of Office runs until after the next general election. 
But in politics obstacles can be removed. So who knows Boris may yet again return to the Commons. 


  1. Not sure you are right here. But, I guess it gives you something to write about. Assumedly not much useful or interesting is happening here in Wales. Or not anything that you dare to mention for fear of upsetting the political class.

    The Tories went into elections with Hague and Howard, both deadbeats and both expected to lose and lose badly, as they duly did.

    Cameron will remain as PM or leader of the opposition until a time of his choosing, as has normally been the case. It's the Tory way. Even Mrs Thatcher's removal was handled quite democratically. It was just the shock of it all that surprised most of the uninitiated.

  2. Just for the record, not to bothered about upsetting the political class. But you are right it is very quiet in Wales at moment.

  3. Our Labour government are all lying low for Wales, mapping out cycle paths and pretending to have nothing to do with hospital closures, in the hope that we all still think Cameron's plotting the downgrading of Prince Philip Hospital

  4. In truth, I suspect there is plenty one could find to write about Carwyn Jones, Edwina Hart, Andrew RT Davies and the like. None of it positive and none of it exclusively focussed on matters in and around the Welsh Assembly. Private, hurtful stuff and sometimes hateful stuff. Just the sort of stuff that Westminster politicians are subjected to on a daily basis.

    The fact that conscious decisions not to write such stuff are made by so many says quite a lot about the value of an independent political scene here in Wales.