It may not be a question that bothers you to much but it exercised the mind of Ipsos Mori. So they conducted face to face interviews with 30 Assembly members to see how they viewed the world.
Not surprising nine out of ten of them wanted more powers, with most [81%] wanting the same powers as Scotland and even half saying that they should have powers over taxation. So watch your wallets.
On the economy they certainly were glass half empty types. With only 28% believing that the Welsh economy would improve next year a third thought we would see things get worse.
Edwina Hart [25%] was seen as the most impressive Assembly Member even outscoring First Minister, Rhodri Morgan [22%]. Her leadership rivals Carwyn Jones and Huw Lewis trailing far behind with just 5% each.
Of the current party leaders the most impressive was seen to be Rhodri, with Ieuan Wyn Jones and Nick Bourne both on 4%. Kirsty Williams nil points, despite 5 of her fellow Liberal Democrats being included in the survey. The most impressive Plaid Assembly member was seen to be Rural Affairs Minister, Elin Jones [12%]. Could she be Plaid's next leader in waiting.
Friday, 20 November 2009
Monday, 16 November 2009
Golwg article - Kick the politicians
Lists are not one of my things. But if one was to draw up a list of the most unpopular people in the eyes of the public almost certainly politics and politicians would be near the top. Undoubtedly after this Summers scandal on allowances they're unlikely to be moved from the top of the list for some time.
Consequently, we all like to prod them as often as we can. And that's the problem . It's impossible for them to ask us any question without the temptation on our part to kick them up the backside.
And that's the danger with a referendum. Its not the question that tends to be answered but the public vote to punish the politicians asking the question.
Now that David Cameron has declared that he won't veto a request for a referendum on more powers if the National Assembly request one. Its highly likely that a referendum may be held early after the next general election despite Peter Hain's best efforts.
The electorate may well be fed up with a referendum campaign on more powers so they may use their vote to have their say and give the politicians a kicking.
If that happened it would create a rather interesting situation. If they electors voted down law making powers were would leave the Assembly. For what is the Assembly at the moment but a law making body. Granted its a complicated system and wasteful in both time and money, but nevertheless it is a law making system. So if the principle of law making is rejected by a referendum the Assembly would have to go back to first principles and surely the question would arise as to whether we need an Assembly at all.
No, it would be foolish to have a referendum with only one question. Especially as most ordinary people think that the Assembly pass laws already.
In my opinion the only way to stop this continues discussion about constitutional matters is to have a multiple choise ballet paper. And the type of question? Independence or not? Powers over taxation? And yes, should we scrap the Assembly?
We need to put an end to the endless constitutional nonsense once and for all, and start addressing the questions that the punters want answers to. Such as economic policy, poverty, housing, health, education etc. If politicians don't answer these their stock will continue to remain low.
Consequently, we all like to prod them as often as we can. And that's the problem . It's impossible for them to ask us any question without the temptation on our part to kick them up the backside.
And that's the danger with a referendum. Its not the question that tends to be answered but the public vote to punish the politicians asking the question.
Now that David Cameron has declared that he won't veto a request for a referendum on more powers if the National Assembly request one. Its highly likely that a referendum may be held early after the next general election despite Peter Hain's best efforts.
The electorate may well be fed up with a referendum campaign on more powers so they may use their vote to have their say and give the politicians a kicking.
If that happened it would create a rather interesting situation. If they electors voted down law making powers were would leave the Assembly. For what is the Assembly at the moment but a law making body. Granted its a complicated system and wasteful in both time and money, but nevertheless it is a law making system. So if the principle of law making is rejected by a referendum the Assembly would have to go back to first principles and surely the question would arise as to whether we need an Assembly at all.
No, it would be foolish to have a referendum with only one question. Especially as most ordinary people think that the Assembly pass laws already.
In my opinion the only way to stop this continues discussion about constitutional matters is to have a multiple choise ballet paper. And the type of question? Independence or not? Powers over taxation? And yes, should we scrap the Assembly?
We need to put an end to the endless constitutional nonsense once and for all, and start addressing the questions that the punters want answers to. Such as economic policy, poverty, housing, health, education etc. If politicians don't answer these their stock will continue to remain low.
Friday, 13 November 2009
Sir Emyr's report
Next week will see Sir Emyr Jones Parry report whether or not the Welsh Assembly should have exclusive powers to make their own laws. The report is likely to be an unanimous 'yes' and with a recommendation that the referendum should be sooner rather than later.
The debate will then move on to timing, when will the best time to hold the referendum. In the one corner will be Peter Hain who wants to delay any referendum until after 2011 in the other corner will be Plaid Cymru who'll want the referendum before 2011.
The hot money is on their being a debate in the Assembly in the Spring of next year and the Assembly agreeing by the required two thirds majority and leaving the likely Tory Administration having to decide on the actual date.
So a busy year for returning officers with a general election and a referendum to organize next year.
But a good year for pundits.
The debate will then move on to timing, when will the best time to hold the referendum. In the one corner will be Peter Hain who wants to delay any referendum until after 2011 in the other corner will be Plaid Cymru who'll want the referendum before 2011.
The hot money is on their being a debate in the Assembly in the Spring of next year and the Assembly agreeing by the required two thirds majority and leaving the likely Tory Administration having to decide on the actual date.
So a busy year for returning officers with a general election and a referendum to organize next year.
But a good year for pundits.
Monday, 9 November 2009
Last week's Golwg column
How many times have we heard someone being described as charismatic. I'm not sure what it means but I'm pretty certain I haven't got it.
But neither has the BNP leader Nick Griffin. After his recent performance on 'Question Time' it is difficult to understand how he became the leader of the extreme right wing party. If he's the best, God help the rest of his Party. He was so poor there was a risk that he might get the sympathy vote.
But one politician who could be described as having the 'wow' factor, is Tony Blair. Especially at the start of his career as Prime Minister, he couldn't put a foot wrong.
It was only the Iraq war that took the shine off. As a consequence he took a dive in the polls when the public turned their back on him, and as a consequence the Labour Party decided he was past his sell buy date.
But as soon as we think we have seen the last of him the old stager may be about to make a comeback.
Under the Lisbon treaty the European Council must elect a president to drive forward their work. Yes, and the name of the United Kingdom government have put in the frame to become the first president, is our old friend, Tony Blair.
The government hope that the old magic will still work and persuade European countries that he's the man to fill the post. Of course we don't have a say on the matter. No, the decision is in the hands of 27 people, the leaders of the nations of the European community.
David Milliban's enthusiasm, when he said 'we need someone that will stop the traffic in Beijing or Washington or Moscow', underlines the seriousness of Brown's government to their former leader.
Despite his charisma, Blair's appointed would be an absolute error.
There are many reasons to oppose the appointment.
Would it be suitable to appoint someone to an international organizations who many believe, has rode rough shot over international law? That's the charge against Blair, and the questionable legality of the decision to go to war with Iraq.
It would seem odd to give the job to a man that did little to strengthen the EU whilst Prime Minister. And streadfastly kept the UK out of the Euro zone. How in the world could anyone take him seriously in the job.
No, him in the job would be a disgrace.
Much better for all of us that he continues to use his talent and charisma to travel the world and lecture for the millions that he's earning.
One of the most uncharismatic of prime minister was Clem Atlee. But many recognise him as one of the best.
Maybe grey and boring is the way forward.
But neither has the BNP leader Nick Griffin. After his recent performance on 'Question Time' it is difficult to understand how he became the leader of the extreme right wing party. If he's the best, God help the rest of his Party. He was so poor there was a risk that he might get the sympathy vote.
But one politician who could be described as having the 'wow' factor, is Tony Blair. Especially at the start of his career as Prime Minister, he couldn't put a foot wrong.
It was only the Iraq war that took the shine off. As a consequence he took a dive in the polls when the public turned their back on him, and as a consequence the Labour Party decided he was past his sell buy date.
But as soon as we think we have seen the last of him the old stager may be about to make a comeback.
Under the Lisbon treaty the European Council must elect a president to drive forward their work. Yes, and the name of the United Kingdom government have put in the frame to become the first president, is our old friend, Tony Blair.
The government hope that the old magic will still work and persuade European countries that he's the man to fill the post. Of course we don't have a say on the matter. No, the decision is in the hands of 27 people, the leaders of the nations of the European community.
David Milliban's enthusiasm, when he said 'we need someone that will stop the traffic in Beijing or Washington or Moscow', underlines the seriousness of Brown's government to their former leader.
Despite his charisma, Blair's appointed would be an absolute error.
There are many reasons to oppose the appointment.
Would it be suitable to appoint someone to an international organizations who many believe, has rode rough shot over international law? That's the charge against Blair, and the questionable legality of the decision to go to war with Iraq.
It would seem odd to give the job to a man that did little to strengthen the EU whilst Prime Minister. And streadfastly kept the UK out of the Euro zone. How in the world could anyone take him seriously in the job.
No, him in the job would be a disgrace.
Much better for all of us that he continues to use his talent and charisma to travel the world and lecture for the millions that he's earning.
One of the most uncharismatic of prime minister was Clem Atlee. But many recognise him as one of the best.
Maybe grey and boring is the way forward.
My Golwg column
Every Thursday a regular column of mine appears in the Welsh language magazine 'Golwg' Many have asked if I'd translate it and place it on my blog. I've used Google translate,so the translation is a bit iffy but I'm slowly going to post some of the backlog and eventually will provide a weekly posting. This was the first effort. Much is lost in translation, but I would say that wouldn't I.
" It is some years now since my driving test. In fact it took four applications before I succeed. And if you have had the Bad Luck be with me in the car, you would very clearly, why [cymeroedd]it so long.
But I still remember the day of my success as clear as yesterday. Finally I was behind the wheel and foot on the accelerator. Freedom and power. I travelled aimlessly for miles , without any idea or objective where I was going. The important thing was to get the power and the wheel in my hands.
And back every sign that the three candidates who want to fill Rhodri Morgan shoes are doing something similar. They want the wheel but little idea of what direction they want to go.
They have warm words and slogans of the Left - equality, fairness radicalism, values, even socialism. Political Musak. All to try to influence members of the Labour Party in the crucial vote.
But where's the foundation. And more importantly which direction they want to take us.
In the economic situation exactly how will they fill the gap between our needs as a nation and the funding available. What are their priorities? Exactly where will the cuts fall? Will the knife be used on health, education, public associations or any other service. And would they demand the right to taxation varying powers? Should this be a referendum question?
The Holtham Commission's report claimed that Wales could lose more than £ 8bn during the next 10 years unless change the Barnet formula. What is the candidates response to this? No word yet. The real need is to reform the system for funding the Assembly Government and this be the top priority of anyone who has the ambition to lead our nation.
Sir Emyr Jones Parry and nothing has been busy taking pulse of the nation. The whispers are that they will recommend an early referendum. Current system is not working and an early move to a lawmaking Assembly should be a high priority. The date in sight, - in late spring or early summer next ..
If so, how will the candidates respond. Will they be for delaying to please Labor members of parliament or will they push ahead. It will be interesting to see. And what, about Lord Richards recommendations of an 80 member Assembly. For the Assembly to work smoothly it is certain to need more members. More politicians, not the best case to argue. But that's a mark of a leader, one that argues for the unpopular.
As the campaign goes on, we'll see if they can kick the practice of warm words that are meaningless and provide real leadership. Dyna'r her. That's the challenge."
" It is some years now since my driving test. In fact it took four applications before I succeed. And if you have had the Bad Luck be with me in the car, you would very clearly, why [cymeroedd]it so long.
But I still remember the day of my success as clear as yesterday. Finally I was behind the wheel and foot on the accelerator. Freedom and power. I travelled aimlessly for miles , without any idea or objective where I was going. The important thing was to get the power and the wheel in my hands.
And back every sign that the three candidates who want to fill Rhodri Morgan shoes are doing something similar. They want the wheel but little idea of what direction they want to go.
They have warm words and slogans of the Left - equality, fairness radicalism, values, even socialism. Political Musak. All to try to influence members of the Labour Party in the crucial vote.
But where's the foundation. And more importantly which direction they want to take us.
In the economic situation exactly how will they fill the gap between our needs as a nation and the funding available. What are their priorities? Exactly where will the cuts fall? Will the knife be used on health, education, public associations or any other service. And would they demand the right to taxation varying powers? Should this be a referendum question?
The Holtham Commission's report claimed that Wales could lose more than £ 8bn during the next 10 years unless change the Barnet formula. What is the candidates response to this? No word yet. The real need is to reform the system for funding the Assembly Government and this be the top priority of anyone who has the ambition to lead our nation.
Sir Emyr Jones Parry and nothing has been busy taking pulse of the nation. The whispers are that they will recommend an early referendum. Current system is not working and an early move to a lawmaking Assembly should be a high priority. The date in sight, - in late spring or early summer next ..
If so, how will the candidates respond. Will they be for delaying to please Labor members of parliament or will they push ahead. It will be interesting to see. And what, about Lord Richards recommendations of an 80 member Assembly. For the Assembly to work smoothly it is certain to need more members. More politicians, not the best case to argue. But that's a mark of a leader, one that argues for the unpopular.
As the campaign goes on, we'll see if they can kick the practice of warm words that are meaningless and provide real leadership. Dyna'r her. That's the challenge."
Thursday, 5 November 2009
Cameron offers no veto on referendum
There has been speculation for some time as to what attitude David Cameron would take if the Assembly demanded a referendum on more powers.
Well, the speculation will end tomorrow when Cameron visits Wales. He will make it clear that he'll not exercise a veto on a request from the Assembly for a referendum on the issue.
This announcement by Cameron will be seen as a victory for the Tory Assembly group who have been pushing for some time for a committment from the Leader of the Opposition on the matter.
Now the attention will be on what stance the Tories will take in such a referendum. The last time they opposed devolution. But this time the Tory group in the Assembly will almost all be pushing hard for law making powers and campaigning for a Yes vote.
The MPs, though, are a different kettle of fish. They will be in the 'over my dead body' wing of the Tory party. The same lot that were on the wrong side of history in the 1997 referendum.
The current formula adopted by the leadership to cover the schism in their ranks, is that old political standby - the free vote. All will be free to campaign on either side of the debate, as they see fit.
Is this a credible stance for a governing party to take?
It would seem so. As Cheryl Gillan makes clear in tonights 'Sharp End'. When pushed to say what line she'd take as a future Secretary of State she declined to commit herself and enlighten us.
To paraphrase the words of the Ella Fitzgerald song:
'She didn't say yes, she didn't say no,
she didn't say stay, she didn't say go;
So what did she do?
I'll leave it you.'
Well, the speculation will end tomorrow when Cameron visits Wales. He will make it clear that he'll not exercise a veto on a request from the Assembly for a referendum on the issue.
This announcement by Cameron will be seen as a victory for the Tory Assembly group who have been pushing for some time for a committment from the Leader of the Opposition on the matter.
Now the attention will be on what stance the Tories will take in such a referendum. The last time they opposed devolution. But this time the Tory group in the Assembly will almost all be pushing hard for law making powers and campaigning for a Yes vote.
The MPs, though, are a different kettle of fish. They will be in the 'over my dead body' wing of the Tory party. The same lot that were on the wrong side of history in the 1997 referendum.
The current formula adopted by the leadership to cover the schism in their ranks, is that old political standby - the free vote. All will be free to campaign on either side of the debate, as they see fit.
Is this a credible stance for a governing party to take?
It would seem so. As Cheryl Gillan makes clear in tonights 'Sharp End'. When pushed to say what line she'd take as a future Secretary of State she declined to commit herself and enlighten us.
To paraphrase the words of the Ella Fitzgerald song:
'She didn't say yes, she didn't say no,
she didn't say stay, she didn't say go;
So what did she do?
I'll leave it you.'
Monday, 2 November 2009
Just for the record
Bangor City in the next round of Welsh Cup. It's getting a habit. League form still required to ensure remaining in super premium league.
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