Labour drop in latest poll

Labour still head the ITVWales/YouGov poll and are on course for their best ever Assembly election results despite having fallen back by 4 per cent since the last poll. 

The poll was conducted for tonight's  "Byd Ar Bedwar" S4C election debate programme.

Strangely this 4 per cent drop may please Labour. Their campaign strategists have been worried that and an overwhelming advantage in the polls might result in complacency amongst their voters and lead to a number not bothering to turn out on Thursday. 

On these figures according to ITV’s analyst Denis Balsom Labour will gain half the seats in the new Assembly. This is one short of an overall majority and raises the prospect of another coalition government.

Both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have gained a percentage point at Labour’s expense. According to Balsom this gives the Tories 15 seats and Plaid Cymru 11 seats.

Despite the Liberal Democrats still treading water with a single figure return of 8 per cent, Balsom still gives them 4 seats. None of the other smaller parties make a break through.

Plaid Cymru will be pushed into third place on these figures for the first time since the National Assembly was created. This will put them at a real disadvantage in any coalition talks. Should there not be a coalition they will not even have the consolation prize of being the official opposition.

The Liberal Democrats despite a drop in the polls will gain seats at the expense of the other minority parties. Even though polling the same as them. 

The other smaller parties continue to put  all their eggs in the regional basket only. The majority of voters tend not to split the votes, hence the Liberal Democrats faring better. Voters in the main vote the same on the regional ballot as they do on the constituency ballot paper. Parties that choose only to fight in the regions are disadvantaged.

The poll in detail is produced below

YouGov opinion poll. 2 May 2007.

YouGov for ‘Y Byd ar Bedwar’ (ITV Wales for S4C, 10.10pm tonight).

This poll was carried out 24-26 April. There will be a final poll on ITV Wales on Wednesday 4 May, with fieldwork carried out up to that date.

Figures for the 2007 election and the YouGov poll published 15 April, are given for comparison.

                                  2007 Election       15 April           2 May.

Constituency vote           

Labour                               32%              49%               45%

Conservative                       22%              20%               21%

Plaid Cymru                        22%              17%               18%

Liberal Democrats                15%               8%                 8%

Others                                  8%               6%                 8%

Regional vote

Labour                                30%               44%                41%

Conservative                        22%               20%                20%

Plaid Cymru                         21%               18%                18%

Liberal Democrats                 12%                8%                  7%

UKIP                                     4%                2%                   7%

Green                                    4%               2%                   4%

Others                                   8%                6%                   5%

Figures are weighted for likelihood to vote.