Last poll before election day

Labour move back up in the last ITVWales/YouGov poll on the eve of the Assembly election. This would push them to overall majority territory.

The Conservatives seem to have lost ground and are one point down in both the constituency and regional vote.

Plaid Cymru look as if their support remains static with 18 per cent in both the constituency and the list.

The Liberal Democrats move up 1 percentage point.

According to ITV’s Denis Balsom this will give Labour 31 seats, Conservatives 13 seats. Plaid Cymru 11 seats and the Liberal Democrats 5.

The smaller parties such as UKIP and Greens again fail to make a breakthrough and gain a seat in the Assembly.

If the poll is right in its predictions then Carwyn Jones will have his majority and will rule without having to depend on another party. Of course, this puts the requirement for real discipline within the Labour group. The government will have to be more attentive to its own backbenchers.

Plaid Cymru, if they are relegated to the third party in the Assembly will have to ask themselves some serious questions about their campaign strategy. They clearly have received no dividends from being in government with Labour.

Since the start of the year the polls have not fluctuated greatly. Labour have been in the mid 40s, Conservatives in the lower 20s, Plaid Cymru round the 20 and the Liberal Democrats in single figures.

Full details of the poll below

YouGov opinion poll. 4 May 2007.

YouGov for ITV Wales news.

This poll was carried out 2-4 May ie fieldwork continued up to this morning.

Sample size: 1010.

Figures for the 2007 election, the April ITV Wales news poll (fieldwork 12-14 April) and the Y Byd ar Bedwar poll (fieldwork 24-26 April) are given for comparison.

                                2007 Election       April poll      Y BaB poll   Latest poll

Constituency vote           

Labour                              32%              49%             45%          47%

Conservative                      22%              20%             21%          20%

Plaid Cymru                       22%              17%             18%          18%

Liberal Democrats              15%               8%              8%              9%

Others                               8%               6%              8%              6%

Regional vote

Labour                                30%               44%            41%            43%

Conservative                        22%               20%            20%            19%

Plaid Cymru                         21%                18%           18%             18%

Liberal Democrats                 12%                 8%             7%               8%

UKIP                                     4%                 2%             7%               7% 

Green                                    4%                 2%             4%               3%

Others                                   8%                 6%             5%               3%

Figures are weighted for likelihood to vote.